Freedom Has Responsibilities

We Are Responsible for Saving Democracy
Nicholas Johnson
The Gazette, May 17, 2021, p. 5A
Fans of the Seinfeld TV show may remember when Jerry discovered the rental car company had no cars.

Clerk: “Unfortunately, we ran out of cars.”

Jerry: “But the reservation keeps the car here. That’s why you have reservations.”

“I know why we have reservations.”

“I don’t think you do. If you did, I’d have a car. See, you know how to take the reservation. You just don’t know how to hold the reservation. And that’s really the most important part of the reservation.”

Freedom is like rental car reservations. It comes with responsibilities -- sometimes the most important part of the freedom.

As in, “Your freedom to swing your fist stops where my nose begins.”

Visiting my uncle’s farm for the first time as a young boy, I followed him out of the cow pasture but failed to close the gate. He kindly explained, “When the cattle get out they’re hard to catch.” That made sense to me. My freedom to wander the farm required my responsibility to close the gates.

Jim Jefferies, an Australian stand-up comedian, compares Americans’ and Australians’ response to mass shootings. As he tells it, during a 10-year stretch there were 10 mass shootings. The next year, 1996, was the worst one. Since then there have been none. Why? The government announced, “That’s it. No more guns.” To which, Jeffrey says, Australians responded, “Yeah, well, all right then, that seems fair enough.” An exaggeration? Of course. It’s not easy to get a laugh out of mass murder.

But it makes a point. Like my closing gates, because restricting guns made sense to Australians they were willing to accept it.

The people in many countries responded that way to their leadership’s COVID global pandemic mandates.

Their leaders said, in effect, “There’s a global pandemic; already one or two cases here. If we do nothing thousands will die. You will all be tested. Those positive will be isolated. Those they have contacted will be quarantined. Everyone will wear masks and keep their distance.”

And their people responded, like the Australians, “Yeah, well, all right then, that seems fair enough.” Thousands of lives were saved.

In America, our leaders did not take that path, in part because many of our people rejected it. “You’re taking away my freedoms,” they cried. “What freedoms?” we asked. “My freedoms to refuse to be vaccinated, to not wear a mask, to go wherever I want while spreading a life-threatening disease.”

The results? With 4 percent of the world’s population our “freedoms” produced 18 percent of the world’s COVID deaths. Nearly 600,000 Americans died needlessly for others’ “freedoms.”

Similarly, if we are to retain our representative democracy we must accept our responsibility to strengthen the institutions and follow the norms that make it possible. [Photo credit: Johnson County Democrats Facebook page, https://www.facebook.com/jcdemsiowa/. A few of the 300+ folks at the Nominating Convention (Democratic candidate for County Supervisor), May 11, 2021, Johnson County, Iowa, Fairgrounds.]

As many countries have discovered, the “freedoms” to storm the Capitol, make it harder to vote, gerrymander districts, promote the big lie and the oligarchy’s wealth while ignoring public needs, are road signs on the path to authoritarian dictatorships. [Photo credit: Mary Vasey.]
__________
Nicholas Johnson, Iowa City, is the author of Columns of Democracy. Contact: mailbox@nicholasjohnson.org
# # #

Sources
Jerry Seinfeld’s car reservation. https://subslikescript.com/series/Seinfeld-98904/season-3/episode-11-The_Alternate_Side SEINFELD (1989–1998): SEASON 3, EPISODE 11 - THE ALTERNATE SIDE - FULL TRANSCRIPT

Jim Jefferies on guns. YouTube video, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0rR9IaXH1M0 (first 00:01:07)

Countries with effective response. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-30/seven-countries-with-better-coronavirus-response-than-australia/13102988 (see New Zealand, Vietnam, Iceland)

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-56455030 (South Korea)

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01248-1 (current research on containment measures effectiveness; Hong Kong; Germany and Austria); see also https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-020-01009-0 (research)

US 4% population, 18% deaths (May 11, 2021). https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/; https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ US COVID deaths May 11, 2021: 596,181, World deaths 3,320,104 = 18% (17.956%)
Google search:
US population: 328,000,000 (US Census Bureau, Eurostat, World Bank) World population: 7,674,000,000 (World Bank) = 4% (4.274%)

# # #

World Happiness Index 2021; We're Number One?

America's Rank: Incarceration, Happiness and Life Expectancy

"We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all [people] are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.--That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted . . .."
Declaration of Independence, July 4, 1776

"The care of human life and happiness and not their destruction is the only legitimate object of good government."
Thomas Jefferson, to Maryland Republicans, 1809, The Writings of Thomas Jefferson, Memorial Edition, 1903-04

"Everyone has the right to a standard of living adequate for the health and well-being of [themselves and their] family, including food, clothing, housing and medical care and necessary social services, and the right to security in the event of unemployment, sickness, disability, widowhood, old age or other lack of livelihood in circumstances beyond [their] control."
Universal Declaration of Human Rights, United Nations, Article 25(1), 1948

A true patriot looks for ways to make America's democracy stronger, and then sets about trying to make it happen. That requires confronting and acknowledging where we're a few cars off the rails. It also requires a little modesty born of a fact-based examination of reality. A patriot knows America is great enough to, borrowing from Jack Nichiolson's line, "handle the truth."

So what about this "We're Number One!! We're Number One!!" business?

We are number one among all nations with some things. In defense spending we're not only number one, we spend approximately what is spent by the next 10 nations combined! [In order: China, India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, France, Germany, United Kingdom, Japan, South Korea and Brazil. See "Comparison: Government Defence Expenditure," countryeconomy.com.]

We're also number one in prison population (2016/2017). We have 2,153,600 prisoners -- roughly 600,000 more than number 2, China (1,561,086). But that's not a fair comparison; the better figure is prisoners per 100,000 population. By that standard we have 6 times more prisoners than China: 662.5 per 100,000 to China's 110.4 per 100,000. [See "Total Prison Population," countryeconomy.com.]

So how are we doing when it comes to the happiness of Americans, and the conditions that contribute to one's happiness, goals that were important to our founders -- and those who wrote the Universal Declaration of Human Rights? [Photo of one-year-old on her birthday, displaying enough happiness to put her well up on anyone's "happiness index."]

America ranks, not "number one!" in happiness, but nineteenth in the list below. How those nations rank in life expectancy is represented in the number following "LE."



1 - Finland - LE 19
2 - Denmark - LE 24
3 - Switzerland - LE 6
4 - Iceland - LE 8
5 - Netherlands - LE 25
6 - Norway - LE 5
7 - Sweden - LE 16
8 - Luxembourg - LE 23
9 - New Zealand - LE 22
10 - Austria - LE 27
11 - Australia - LE 11
12 - Israel - LE 10
13 - Germany - LE 29
14 - Canada - LE 20
15 - Ireland - LE 9
16 - Costa Rica - LE 32
17 - United Kingdom - LE 26
18 - Czech Republic - LE 44
19 - United States - LE 42

It's something to think about; for example, "What do those top 7 nations have that we don't -- and why?" And then? Then try to do something about it.

Sources: World Happiness Index 2021 (click on "Countries" to list countries alphabetically, and "World Happiness Ranking" to list countries by happiness), and World Happiness Report 2021 ("The World Happiness Report is a publication of the Sustainable Development Solutions Network, powered by data from the Gallup World Poll and Lloyd’s Register Foundation, who provided access to the World Risk Poll. The 2021 Report includes data from the ICL-YouGov Behaviour Tracker as part of the COVID Data Hub from the Institute of Global Health Innovation."). The "Life Expectancy at Birth" rankings can be found HERE.

Rethinking Electric Vehicles

NEW UPDATE! April 19, 2021. A reader of The Gazette submitted a Letter to the Editor, published April 17, responding to this column. The full text of that Letter, along with Nicholas Johnson's reply, are reproduced below at "Gazette Reader's Response/Letter and My Reply"

Rethinking The Rush Toward Electric Vehicles

Nicholas Johnson
The Gazette, April 11, 2021, p. D3
The Gazette Online, April 9, 2021 1:14 pm Updated: Apr. 9, 2021 1:16 pm
My first car was a 1928 Ford Model A roadster. Its roof had been removed, and the body revealed years in a cornfield. Price: $25, but worth it.

In college I saved up and traded up: a $75 four-door Model A.

It’s not a manly confession, but I’m not a car guy. Never built a hot rod. Like Barbra Streisand’s “Second Hand Rose” with her second hand clothes, “I never had a car that wasn’t used.”

Then I heard about electric vehicles (EVs). Drove one over city streets and highways. Loved it. So cool. Smooth ride, silent, saving the environment with every mile. Amazing. [Photo credit: Wikipedia, Tesla Model X, from $79,990 (Plaid configuration, $119,990); I drove a Nissan Leaf, from $31,670]

Until I made the mistake, from the dealer’s perspective, of researching and thinking.

Two questions: 1) Should you buy an EV? 2) Should President Joe Biden spend $174 billion on their promotion — including 500,000 charging stations?

My conclusion on the first? As some Facebook users describe their relationship, “it’s complicated.”

Do you not have to ask the price? (“If you have to ask, you can’t afford it.”) Do you have exclusive access to a charging station, or a garage where you can put one? Do you already have a second, conventional car? Would you or your partner only use the EV for errands around town, or commuting distances for which daily, overnight home charging is adequate? To avoid merely substituting coal-generated electricity for petroleum, do you live in one of the most renewable-energy-sourced electricity states? Do you consider the fun of driving an EV a part of their value?

If you can answer “yes” to all those questions an EV may make sense. Whatever you answered, extensive Googling may change your mind.

Mileage and charging times are challenging. Every hour of charging with 120-volts creates power to drive two-to-five miles (96 miles per 24-hour charge). Compare that with three minutes to “fill ‘er up” with gasoline on cross-country trips.

The second question’s answers depend on the goal: a) All Americans using EVs for all driving? b) Benefits from most practical uses of EVs? c) Transportation systems moving humans at lowest possible cost and environmental impact?

The challenges with (a) are suggested in the six questions above. If (b), fleet use (Post Office; UPS) makes the most sense. Amazon has plans to order 100,000 EVs for deliveries. Each vehicle with its own parking space, charging station and enough overnight charge to last through the next day.

(c) But if the goal is moving humans, there are more efficient and environmentally friendly alternatives to filling roads with EV vehicles.

Work from home (as many now do). Office buildings and housing within walking or biking distance. Multiples more public transportation — subways, surface trains, EV buses. Incentives for trading in gas guzzlers.

Friends in a small Swiss town benefit from a sufficiently extensive national rail network, plus buses, to travel efficiently without owning a car — as my sister does in Manhattan.

EVs are now 1 percent of all vehicles. Their future? It’s complicated.

Nicholas Johnson, Iowa City, worked on transportation policy as U.S. Maritime Administrator. mailbox@nicholasjohnson.org

SOURCES
Second Hand Rose - lyrics - https://tinyurl.com/ns6z7an9

Biden’s $174B & 500,000 chargers - Niraj Chokshi, “Biden’s Push for Electric Cars: $174 Billion, 10 Years and a Bit of Luck,” New York Times, April 1, 2021, p. B1, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/31/business/biden-electric-vehicles-infrastructure.html (“[Biden] hopes to build half a million chargers by 2030”)

Electricity generation; coal vs. renewable energy; states – Nadja Popovich and Brad Plumer, “How Does Your State Make Electricity?” New York Times, Oct. 28, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/10/28/climate/how-electricity-generation-changed-in-your-state-election.html; U.S. Department of Energy, “Alternative Fuels Data Center,” https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_production.html

Charging times & chargers cost – “How Much Does It Cost to Install an Electric Vehicle Charging Station at Home?”, fixr, https://www.fixr.com/costs/home-electric-vehicle-charging-station (“Essentially, a Level 1 charger adds roughly 2 to 5 miles of driving range to your car for every hour you charge it.” “Average cost: Level 2 charger with a 240-volt outlet and wall mounting $1200, high cost $4500”)

Marci Houghtlen, “How Much Does a Tesla Home Charger Cost?” MotorBiscuit, January 24, 2021, https://www.motorbiscuit.com/how-much-does-a-tesla-home-charger-cost/ (cost of Tesla EVs, home chargers)

Good video discussion: “5 Reasons You Should (Not) But an Electric Car,” Oct. 7, 2020, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5gCXv0XTOi0

Dave Vanderwerp, “EV Range: Everything You Need to Know; We explain EPA ratings, factors that affect range, how EVs have performed in our testing, and why it's all very complicated,” Car and Driver, May 22, 2020, https://www.caranddriver.com/shopping-advice/a32603216/ev-range-explained/

Gasoline fill-up time – “Gasoline pump,” Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gasoline_pump#Design (“Light passenger vehicle pump up to about 50 litres (13 US gallons) per minute[4] (the United States limits this to 10 US gallons [38 litres] per minute[5]); pumps serving trucks and other large vehicles have a higher flow rate, up to 130 litres (34 US gallons) per minute in the UK[4] and 40 US gallons (150 litres) in the US. This flow rate is based on the diameter of the vehicle's fuel filling pipe, which limits flow to these amounts.”)

Amazon 100,000 EVs - Mary Meisenzahl, “Amazon's first electric delivery vans are now making deliveries — see how they were designed,” Business Insider, Feb. 3, 2021, https://www.yahoo.com/news/amazon-creating-futuristic-fleet-100-205745513.html (“In October, Amazon showed off the first of its planned custom electric delivery vehicles, with plans to have 10,000 on the road by 2022, and 100,000 by 2030.”)

Non-EV alternatives - Brad Plumer, Nadja Popovich and Blacki Migliozzi, “Electric Cars Are Coming. How Long Until They Rule the Road?” New York Times, March 10, 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/03/10/climate/electric-vehicle-fleet-turnover.html (“policies to buy back and scrap older, less efficient cars . . . expanding public transit or encouraging biking and walking, so that existing vehicles are driven less often.”)

EVs 1% of vehicles - Niraj Chokshi, “Biden’s Push for Electric Cars: $174 Billion, 10 Years and a Bit of Luck,” New York Times, April 1, 2021, p. B1, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/31/business/biden-electric-vehicles-infrastructure.html (“electric vehicles remain a niche product, making up just 2 percent of the new car market and 1 percent of all cars, sport-utility vehicles, vans and pickup trucks on the road.”)

Neal E. Boudette and Coral Davenport, "G.M. Will Sell Only Zero-Emission Vehicles by 2035," New York Times, Jan. 29, 2021, p. A1; Jan. 28, 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/28/business/gm-zero-emission-vehicles.html ("General Motors said Thursday [Jan 28, 2021] that it would phase out petroleum-powered cars and trucks and sell only vehicles that have zero tailpipe emissions by 2035....")

Gazette Reader's Response/Letter and My Reply

Improving Tech Makes Electric Vehicles a Viable Option
Florence Williams
The Gazette, April 17, 2021, p. A6
The Gazette Online April 16, 2021]
Nicholas Johnson listed considerations one should ponder before purchasing an electric vehicle in his April 11 guest column. However, I found his points rather misleading.

I own a Tesla Model 3 with extended range. I have driven my Tesla to Detroit and back without any range anxiety. Instead of comparing stopping at a gas station to plugging into a 120V plug, which is a standard outlet in your home and only relevant for overnight charging, we should be comparing gas stations to stopping at a supercharger station, which are common at Hy-Vee and Casey’s along major highways. I drive three hours before needing to charge, then it takes me 20 to 40 minutes to charge at a V2 supercharger (V3 are faster, but not common yet). Importantly, you don’t have to stand there waiting with your hand on the nozzle — the car locks the charger in place and you can do as you like. By this three hour point, I usually want a bite to eat or a coffee, so 30 minutes is perfect. Tesla chargers are the gold standard, but this is where all EVs are heading and why there’s so much talk of investing in a high-powered charging network in the US.

Another point, as Mr. Johnson puts it “Do you live in one of the most renewable energy-sourced electricity states?” In Iowa we are 50 percent wind energy, and that number is growing.

Florence Williams

Iowa City
__________
My Response to Florence Williams
Nicholas Johnson
April 19, 2021
First off, thank you Ms. Williams. Like most writers, it's almost always a satisfaction for me to have evidence that someone actually read what I've written. When the response involves the reader making the time and effort to respond in writing, and keeps the language civil (as she clearly has), either with an email or, in this case, with a letter to the editor, that's just all the better.

Second, I don't really take issue with any of the facts she reports regarding her own experience with her Tesla 3. How could I?

Third, I can understand why she might have felt my example of home charging -- in the necessarily truncated discussion of the range of charging problems with EVs in a 500-word column -- was incomplete, or even misleading. I would hope in the context of the entire column (and the "six questions") the reader would understand that all issues regarding EVs depend on who is using the vehicle, where, and for what. As I concluded the piece, "It's complicated."

This specific aside, I do take exception to her assertion, "I found his points rather misleading." Did she really mean to say that all the points made in the column were "misleading"? If so, she needs somewhat more support for that charge. If not, she probably shouldn't have phrased it that way. I'm certainly not opposed to all uses of EVs in all circumstances; quite the contrary. I just think every potential customer needs to do some due diligence regarding an EVs practicality for them.

With the availability of more words than the column permitted, I'll add a few additional details.

As the manufacturers' enthusiasm for EVs, as well as that of EV fans like Florence Williams, reveals -- and my column endeavored to make clear -- there are many Americans for whom EVs make a lot of sense. The consumer's challenge is researching the facts (many suggested by the "six questions") to discover whether their situation and potential uses make them one of those "many Americans."

Central are issues related to charging (time involved, availability of charging stations, how much of a full charge to use) and range.

Take Ms. Williams' example. It is 487 miles from Iowa City to Detroit (7 hours 12 minutes at 69 mph). Tesla says its Tesla 3 can go 353 miles (263 to 353) on a full charge ("Long Range" model, $47,690. Drew Dorian and Joey Capparella, "2021 Tesla Model 3".) But many experts and writers say it's best to hold the charge between 20% and 80% of a full charge -- which would bring the range down to 60% of 353 or 212 miles. (See, e.g., "Charging the battery to only 80% and discharging to 20%, as is typically done on a new EV battery, only utilizes 60% of the capacity." "Battery Aging in an Electric Vehicle (EV); Stretching battery life to the maximum," Battery University, August 22, 2020; "10 Tips to Extend the Life of Your EV Battery," Clipper Creek, March 1, 2018.) Ms. Williams says she recharges after three hours; at 70 mph, and accepting the manufacturer's 212 miles, that would be three hours.

There are many variables when it comes to range: which EV; manufacturers' specs; your speed; flat vs. mountains; temperature (cold can reduce it by a third); age of the battery (the range declines as the battery ages); running the heater or air conditioning.

e.g., "Winter is also unkind to EV range. In 30-degree Detroit temps, my tester got just 65 percent of predicted battery range . . .. Range anxiety is a serious problem for EVs -- especially for the average Chevy customer who uses their steed as primary tranasportation. . . . You see the holes in this idea that everyone will buy electric in 15 years. I'm not buying it. More likely the folks buying the Bolt EV/EUV will be niche customers who . . . only use the EV for daily commutes." Henry Payne, "Second-Gen Chevy Bolt EV Is A Treat; Pity It Isn't a Caddy," Detroit News, March 3, 2021

Another variable is charging speed. A 220V line will charge faster than a 120V. Ms. Williams mentions a Tesla "V2 supercharger" with a "V3" on the way. The question is: What is the optimal charging power and speed when battery life is considered? See, e.g. "Fast-charging can damage electric car batteries in just 25 cycles," Professional Engineering, Institution of Mechanical Engineering, March 12, 2020; Emmanouil D.Kostopoulosa, George C.Spyropoulosab, John K.Kaldellisa, "Real-world study for the optimal charging of electric vehicles," Energy Reports, vol. 6, pp. 418-426, Nov. 2020. Volume 6, November 2020, Pages 418-426

In other words, if you are driving a Tesla, because you can afford the near-$50,000 price tag, your out-of-town travel only requires one recharge before your destination, does not normally occur during cold winter days, involves a route plentifully supplied with Tesla charging stations, and you're willing to do some (if any) damage to your EV battery from fast charges, Ms. Williams experience suggests one more instance in which an EV can do the job.

There are many other situations where an EV makes sense, as I suggested with organizations' fleets of EVs, and individuals local shopping and commuting -- if overnight charging is both always feasible and adequate.

The fact remains, as I concluded the column, that for any given individual, balancing all the questions and issues surrounding EV purchases, while it may be possible, still "It's complicated."

# # #

A Profit Deal & Alternative Schools

Move To Online Gambling a Bad Deal for Iowans
Nicholas Johnson
Iowa City Press-Citizen (online), Letters, 4th position, April 7, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/3n6z7r78

Gambling, once illegal in Iowa, is now online. TV commercials encourage record-breaking sports betting. As a former sports law professor, gambling’s impact on the integrity of collegiate and professional sports concerns me. More concerning, Tom Coates (Des Moines Consumer Credit) believes the odds are good that Iowa will see more bankruptcies, suicides, divorces and other fallout due to the spike in sports wagering. [Photo credit: Kinnick Stadium video display, Riverside Gambling Casino advertisement, Nicholas Johnson]

I was introduced to gambling as a pre-teen. The family was visiting friends in a large house in San Francisco. The grownups wanted adults’ conversation, so I was handed our host’s straw hat filled with nickel slugs, told to go to the attic and play the slot machines. Never without a little notebook, pencil and curiosity, I kept track of the number of slugs that went into the machine and the winnings.

My conclusion? I’ve never given a dime of my own to the gambling industry. Like Steve Martin’s character in the movie “The Jerk,” I wrote in my little notebook, “I get it, this is a profit deal.”

For Iowans tempted to further enrich the gambling industry, it’s a line worth remembering — along with the phone number 1-800-BETS OFF.

— Nicholas Johnson, Iowa City
# # #
Need For Alternative Schools Has Been Met
Mary Vasey
Iowa City Press-Citizen (online), Letters, 3rd position, April 7, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/3n6z7r78

Thank you, Republicans, for considering the need for alternatives to traditional schools for students who are or may be falling through the cracks. While Republicans may not intend to leave this impression, it does make me wonder why they consider this an “unmet need.” [Photo credit: Iowa City Community School District]

Having taught at Metro High School for over 20 years, I encourage those legislators to learn about Cedar Rapids’ Metro High School, Iowa City’s Tate High School and the many other fine alternative schools throughout the state and across the nation. Legislators will find this is a need that has been identified and successfully served for years by the dedicated educators in Iowa school districts’ alternative schools.

— Mary Vasey, Iowa City
# # #

Tags: a profit deal, alternative schools, gambling, Metro High School, online gambling, public education, sports gambling, sports integrity, Tate High School,

Protecting Democracy

Will Our Democracy Survive?
Nicholas Johnson
The Gazette, March 17, 2021, p. 6A
Will our democracy survive?

Some things we prize can’t protect themselves. Like the environment. Since 1970 it’s had the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

Our democracy can’t protect itself either. What percentage of a nation’s people must want a government “of, by, and for the people” to make it a reality?

Between 121 and 140 House members refused to recognize President Biden’s election.

The 2020 election turnout was a 120-year record. Yet one-third of eligible voters didn’t vote; 23% are “not interested in politics.”

Only 18% of Americans think our democracy is “working very well.” Alternatives to democracy thought “good” include government by experts (40%), a strong man with few legislative restraints (22%), and the military (17%).

It’s not that no one is aware of our democracy’s disintegration.

There are already numerous individuals and organizations working to reduce divisiveness and increase collaboration, such as the 56 U.S. House members in the Progressive Caucus, Dr. Chris Peters’ Our Braver Angels Iowa, and LivingRoomConversations.com.

From our nation’s beginning civics preparation was a driving reason for colleges and public K-12 schools. Educators know this, and organizations such as the Education Commission of the States and Educating for American Democracy (with its “roadmap for excellence”) are working to bring it back.

The origin of the word “democracy” (Greek words for “people rule”) has motivated expansion of the eligible voting base from white, male landowners over 21 to include people of color, women, and those over 18.

There are two options for those whose political party loses elections.

The one democracy compels is a revised party platform of proposals more attractive to the electoral majority than the proposals of the other party; the second is to make it possible for a minority of voters to win the majority of elections and legislative seats with gerrymandered district boundaries and a variety of voter suppression techniques.

The Republican Party has chosen the second. It had no new platform of proposals for the 2020 election. It learned, as Senator Lindsey Graham explained, that without “election reform” “there will never be another Republican president.” It is now pushing some 250 “reforms” in 43 state legislatures.

Many organizations and individuals are working on these challenges – including the U.S. House with its broad “For the People Act of 2021” (HR 1).

The point is not that no one is monitoring and trying to strengthen the weak spots in our democracy. Many persons are.

What’s needed are two things.

The first is a central institution, constantly monitoring and commenting on all elements of our democracy – the efforts to make them stronger, and where they’re under attack. It could be a nonpartisan commission, a major foundation’s project or an academic center.

The second is a commitment from the mass media to give the reports of this institution daily coverage – similar to the regular reporting this past year of COVID cases, hospitalizations, deaths and now progress with vaccinations.

For democracy to have a prayer of survival it will require the attention, words and deeds of each of us.
__________
Nicholas Johnson, Iowa City, is the author of Columns of Democracy. Comments: mailbox@nicholasjohnson.org

# # #
SOURCES
EPA 1970. Environmental Protection Agency, https://www.epa.gov/history/origins-epa

Of, by and for the people. Gettysburg Address, Nov. 19, 1863, https://rmc.library.cornell.edu/gettysburg/good_cause/transcript.htm

Refusal to accept Biden’s election. Li Zhou, “147 Republican lawmakers still objected to the election results after the Capitol attack; Congress has certified President-elect Joe Biden as the winner of the election — but some Republicans still objected,” Vox, Jan. 7, 2021, https://www.vox.com/2021/1/6/22218058/republicans-objections-election-results

One-third didn’t vote. Domenico Montanaro, “Poll: Despite Record Turnout, 80 Million Americans Didn't Vote. Here's Why,” npr, Dec. 15, 2020, https://www.npr.org/2020/12/15/945031391/poll-despite-record-turnout-80-million-americans-didnt-vote-heres-why

Americans’ support for democracy. Carroll Doherty, “Key findings on Americans’ views of the U.S. political system and democracy,” Pew Research Center, Apr. 26, 2018, https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/04/26/key-findings-on-americans-views-of-the-u-s-political-system-and-democracy/ (“About six-in-ten Americans (58%) say democracy is working well in the U.S., though just 18% say it is working very well.”)

Richard Wike, Katie Simmons, Bruce Stokes and Janell Fetterolf, “Democracy widely supported, little backing for rule by strong leader or military,” Pew Research Center, Oct. 16, 2017, https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2017/10/16/democracy-widely-supported-little-backing-for-rule-by-strong-leader-or-military/

Divisiveness. Michael Dimock and Richard Wike, “America is exceptional in the nature of its political divide,” Pew Research Center, Nov. 13, 2020, https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/11/13/america-is-exceptional-in-the-nature-of-its-political-divide/ (“Americans both see this problem and want to address it. Overwhelming majorities of both Trump (86%) and Biden (89%) supporters surveyed this fall said that their preferred candidate, if elected, should focus on addressing the needs of all Americans, ‘even if it means disappointing some of his supporters.’”)

Carroll Doherty, “Key findings on Americans’ views of the U.S. political system and democracy,” Pew Research Center, Apr. 26, 2018, https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/04/26/key-findings-on-americans-views-of-the-u-s-political-system-and-democracy/ (“Today, nearly equal shares in both parties (46% of Democrats and 44% of Republicans) say “they like elected officials who make compromises with people they disagree with.”)

Problem solvers caucus, https://problemsolverscaucus-gottheimer.house.gov/; Dr. Chris Peters, Braver Angels Iowa, https://www.facebook.com/braverangelsiowa; Living Room Conversations, https://livingroomconversations.org/

Civics education. Integral to K-12 and higher ed. Lisa Guilfoile and Brady Delander, Introduction, Guidebook: Six Proven Practices for Effective Civic Learning,” Education Commission of the States and National Center for Learning and Civic Engagement, Jan. 2014, http://www.ecs.org/clearinghouse/01/10/48/11048.pdf (“Earlier in our nation’s history, civic education was broadly seen as integral to the purposes of public schools and universities.”) Education Commission of the States, https://ecs.org (search: “civics”) Educating for American Democracy, https://educatingforamericandemocracy.org

Voting. “Democracy (Ancient Greece),” Resource Library, National Geographic, https://www.nationalgeographic.org/encyclopedia/democracy-ancient-greece/ (“The word “democracy” comes from two Greek words that mean people (demos) and rule (kratos).”)

“History of Voting in America,” Secretary of State, State of Washington, https://www.sos.wa.gov/_assets/elections/history-of-voting-in-america-timeline.pdf (“1776 -- Only white men age 21 and older who own land can vote.”)

No Republican Platform. Reid J. Epstein, “The G.O.P. Delivers Its 2020 Platform. It’s From 2016,” The New York Times, Aug. 25, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/25/us/politics/republicans-platform.html (“Every four years since 1856, the Republican Party has produced a platform articulating its priorities for the next president. But like so much else disrupted by President Trump, the Republican National Committee has dispensed with producing a 2020 platform . . ..”)

Dominick Mastrangelo, “Graham: If Trump concedes election, Republicans will 'never' elect another president,” The Hill, Nov. 8, 2020, https://thehill.com/homenews/525063-lindsey-graham-if-trump-concedes-election-republicans-will-never-elect-another (“’If Republicans don't challenge and change the U.S. election system, there will never be another Republican president elected again,’ Graham said Sunday on Fox News.”)

250 laws 43 states. Amy Gardner, Kate Rabinowitz and Harry Stevens, “How GOP-backed voting measures could create hurdles for tens of millions of voters; At least 250 new laws have been proposed in 43 states to limit mail, early in-person and Election Day voting,” The Washington Post, March 11, 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/interactive/2021/voting-restrictions-republicans-states/

“State Voting Bills Tracker 2021; State lawmakers continue to introduce voting and elections bills at a furious pace,” Brennan Center for Justice, Feb. 24, 2021, . https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/state-voting-bills-tracker-2021

H.R. 1 – For the People Act of 2021, https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/1/text

# # #

Impeachment: A Third View

Contents

Executive Summary
Presidential Oath
Summary of Trial Lawyers' Arguments
Minority Leader McConnell's Reaction
The Article in 2nd Impeachment
Reaction to Articles in 1st Impeachment
Was Speech Text "Incitement"?
The Speech in Context
What Was Trump's Impeachable Offense?

Executive Summary
Many "Articles of Impeachment" of presidents itemize a specific act or two, e.g., Trump's first impeachment, pressure on Ukraine government; Trump's second, his Jan. 6 speech. This blog post endeavors to build a case for a preeminent Article when a president's actions, whether with intent or effect, constitute an attack on democracy itself, as embodied in the Columns of Democracy, i.e., the essential foundational institutions that support and make possible our democracy, e.g., the peaceful transfer of power after inclusive, free and fair elections, or a respected, free and factual mass media.

[here are adjacent examples of both from Trump's Jan. 16 speech: "[O]ur election was so corrupt that in the history of this country we've never seen anything like it. And you know what else? We don't have a free and fair press. Our media is not free, it's not fair. . . . It's become the enemy of the people." Brian Naylor, "Read Trump's Jan. 6, Speech, A Key Part of Impeachment Trial," npr, Feb. 10, 2021, text and video https://www.npr.org/2021/02/10/966396848/read-trumps-jan-6-speech-a-key-part-of-impeachment-trial].

# # #

"I do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will faithfully execute the Office of President f the United States, and will to the best of my Ability, preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States."

U.S. Constitution, Art. II, Sec. 1, Clause 8

Introduction

President Trump's lawyers -- and supporters in and out of the House and Senate -- argue he should not be found to have engaged in "high crimes and misdemeanors" because (a) his January 6 Ellipse speech did not "incite" the violence that followed, (b) it is unconstitutional for the Senate to hold an impeachment trial of a former president whose term has expired (he cannot, by definition, be "removed" from an office he no longer holds), (c) Senate rules require separate charges be in separate Articles, (d) it would violate his First Amendment rights to punish or forbid such a speech, and (e) it would be further divisive of an American population desperately in need of unity.

Following the Senate Trial vote Feb. 13, Minority Leader Mitch McConnell spoke. He first excoriated former President Trump and his behavior, and then explained his "not guilty" vote, citing Constitution Article II, Sec. 4: "The President, Vice President and all civil Officers of the United States, shall be removed from Office on Impeachment for, and Conviction of, Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors." McConnell argued that to convict Trump he would have to be, at the time of the conviction, "president," which he was not; it would also be impossible for him to "be removed from Office."

The House impeachment managers, with Representative Jamie Raskin as lead manager, argue that (a) Trump did incite the crowd to storm the Capitol (4 years of telling his "big lie" -- "landslide" "stolen" election victory -- statements; selection of place, date and time of Congress' certifying electoral votes; his support of prior crowd violence; refusal to order support for Capitol police or tell insurgents to stop; and statements of participants that they were following Trump's orders), (b) a Senate trial of an impeached former president no longer in office is constitutional (language of Constitution, English practice that influenced drafters, their remarks, majority of legal scholars), (c) First Amendment does not protect speech triggering seditious insurrection, (d) for the Senate not to convict would set a precedent for future presidents, and (e) accountability (of Trump) was essential to putting this behind us (thus, presumably, contributing to unity).

Something like that.

As a former U.S. Supreme Court law clerk, law professor, and occasional constitutional law prof, I was overwhelmed with the creativity, quality, effectiveness and delivery of Rep. Jamie Raskin and the other House Managers. (Full disclosure: I had shared some undertakings with his late father, Marc; my first memory of Jaimie was watching his participation as a child in a White House demonstration.) I could not have done it as well as they did. I have no suggestions as to how they could have done it better, and certainly no "criticisms."

Thus, what follows is not about their presentation of the House's Article (by which they were to some extent bound), but some reactions to the theory and wording of that Article.

# # #
A Third View
The Article of Impeachment, "Incitement of Insurrection," [H.Res. 24, 117th Cong., https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-resolution/24/text] consists of five paragraphs.

Following the title ("Incitement of Insurrection") the first paragraph contains the allegation that, "Trump engaged in high Crimes and Misdemeanors by inciting violence."

The second paragraph mentions the House and Senate Joint Session "to count the votes of the Electoral College" and Trump's "statements that, in context, encouraged -- and foreseeably resulted in -- lawless action at the Capitol."

The two-sentence third paragraph refers to Trump's "prior efforts to subvert and obstruct the certification of the results of the 2020 Presidential election," and his "phone call on January 2, 2021, [to] the secretary of state of Georgia."

The fourth paragraph reads in its entirety, "In all this, President Trump gravely endangered the security of the United States and its institutions of Government. He threatened the integrity of the democratic system, interfered with the peaceful transition of power, and imperiled a coequal branch of Government. He thereby betrayed his trust as President, to the manifest injury of the people of the United States."

The concluding, fifth paragraph asserts that "he will remain a threat to national security, democracy, and the Constitution if allowed to remain in office, and has acted in a manner grossly incompatible with self-governance and the rule of law."

My reaction to this text is similar to my reaction to Article I in Trump's first impeachment [Articles of Impeachment Against Donald John Trump, H.Res.755 — 116th Congress, Dec. 18, 2019], emphasizing his interactions with the Ukrainian government:

What the House Democrats should have emphasized for a confused public (and Republican Senate), is why Trump's impeachment, and Senate conviction, should be a slam dunk. It is because, unlike other behavior that has, or has not, been found to be impeachable during the 62 impeachment hearings in the House since 1789, what Trump has been doing is something the drafters had experienced, caused them great legitimate concern, and they specifically tried to prevent: namely, foreign interference in our politics, government, and especially elections, whether sought from within or imposed from abroad.

"Impeachment: What the House Should Have Said; Trump's Conviction Should Have Been A Slam Dunk," FromDC2Iowa, Jan. 21, 2020, https://fromdc2iowa.blogspot.com/2020/01/impeachment-what-house-should-have-said.html.

(See also, "Understanding Impeachment," FromDC2Iowa, Nov. 11, 2019, https://fromdc2iowa.blogspot.com/2019/11/understanding-impeachment.html; and Articles of Impeachment Against Donald John Trump, H.Res.755 — 116th Congress, Dec. 18, 2019, [https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-resolution/755/text], Article I: Abuse of Power/"President Trump solicited the interference of a foreign government, Ukraine, in the 2020 United States Presidential election. He did so through a scheme or course of conduct that included soliciting the Government of Ukraine to publicly announce investigations that would benefit his reelection . . . Trump, by such conduct, has demonstrated that he will remain a threat to national security and the Constitution if allowed to remain in office, and has acted in a manner grossly incompatible with self-governance and the rule of law.")

Article I is headed, "Incitement of Insurrection." The first paragraph charges "Trump engaged in high Crimes and Misdemeanors by inciting violence against the Government of the United States." The second paragraph asserts, "Shortly before the Joint Session commenced, President Trump, addressed a crowd [where he] willfully made statements that . . . encouraged -- and foreseeably resulted in -- lawless action at the Capitol."

Taken out of its context, it is difficult to find within the text of Trump's Jan. 6 11,153-word, hour-plus speech an "incitement of insurrection." [Brian Naylor, "Read Trump's Jan. 6, Speech, A Key Part of Impeachment Trial," npr, Feb. 10, 2021, text and video https://www.npr.org/2021/02/10/966396848/read-trumps-jan-6-speech-a-key-part-of-impeachment-trial.] He did not suggest the mob hang the Vice President and shoot the Speaker of the House, attack the Capitol police, leave bombs at the DNC and RNC headquarters, break windows and bang on doors, or other of the horrific things that happened. What did he recommend be done with senators and House members who do not support him? "You primary them." What else did he say? "[W]e're going to walk down to the Capitol, and we're going to cheer on our brave senators and congressmen and women;" "I know that everyone here will soon be marching over to the Capitol building to peacefully and patriotically make your voices heard."

In context, however, the January 6 speech was but part of a year-long chain of "incitements" for which it was the last; without those early links Trump's speech might never have produced the disaster it did.

There were lines and phrases in the Article that hinted at some of the links in that chain. The House Managers did their best to include them in their story, but such efforts did little to establish that Trump's January 6 speech, standing alone, constituted "incitement of insurrection."

Here are some examples:

• "President Trump repeatedly issued false statements asserting that the Presidential election results were the product of widespread fraud and should not be accepted by the American people . . .."


• "he reiterated false claims that 'we won this election, and we won it by a landslide.'”


• "President Trump’s conduct on January 6, 2021, followed his prior efforts to subvert and obstruct the certification of the results of the 2020 Presidential election.


• Those prior efforts included a phone call on January 2, 2021, during which President Trump urged the secretary of state of Georgia . . .."


• "President Trump gravely endangered the . . . institutions of Government. He threatened the integrity of the democratic system, interfered with the peaceful transition of power . . .."


• "Trump, by such conduct, has demonstrated that he will remain a threat to national security, democracy, and the Constitution"

The common theme in Trump's behavior was the design of a no-lose strategy; a desire to hang onto the presidency come what may. If he received the most electoral votes he would win. If he did not he had a number of potential paths to retained power. He tried them all. For months prior to the election he repeatedly fed his base the lie that American elections are "fraudulent" and "rigged." Mail-in ballots were not to be trusted. He argued that he would, of course, have the support of the majority of voters, and that, therefore, if he was not proclaimed the winner the results were obviously dishonest. Election night, early returns sometimes went his way. Later, as the mail-in ballot returns came in and the lead shifted, Trump insisted that was proof the election had been stolen from him. When recounts only confirmed his loss, his next step was to file lawsuits challenging the vote. He lost 61 of them. He then turned to speaking directly to electors, county auditors, state secretaries of state, legislators and governors in an effort to get them to change their state's electoral vote count. By late December he was becoming desperate. His last hope was to reverse, stop, or delay the congressional certification of the states' electoral college votes.

That is the context. That was the playing out of his scheme. The Jan. 6 speech, and the insurrection by a mob he had brought to anger over months, was not his initial desire. Stopping the final certification of the Electoral College vote was his last chance. It was only the last domino to fall at the end of a months' long chain.

In other words, the gravamen of Trump's impeachable "high crimes and misdemeanors" was not his speech, it was his attack on our democracy itself; in this case, our system of voting described in another part of Article II (Sec. 1, clauses 1-3), and Amendment XII, that describe the Electoral College system.

In my book, Columns of Democracy, I make the point that a democracy can be neither created, nor sustained, standing alone. It requires a foundation of supporting "columns," such as a respected free and independent media, and, in this case, a system of voting that is respected and trusted by the citizenry as inclusive, easy to use, accurate and honestly administered. Such a system makes for the smooth transfers of power that distinguish democracies from authoritarian dictatorships. Attacking that system, weakening it, threatening the voters trust in it, failing to support peaceful transfer of power -- that should be the impeachable offence.

# # #

Democrats’ ‘Bridge Too Far’

Struggling Democrats Must Build More Bridges

Nicholas Johnson
The Gazette, Feb. 10, 2021, p. A6
Linn County Auditor Joel Miller says, “to run for statewide office may be a bridge too far if the Democratic Party cannot broaden their appeal in rural Iowa.”

He’s an optimist. The reality’s worse.

Color Iowa’s 99 counties red and blue. Six went for Joe Biden (the three with state universities, plus Linn, Polk and Scott); 93 for the former president – 94 percent.

That’s even worse than the national map: 83 percent of the nation’s counties are red; 17 percent are blue. [Photo credit: U.S. Bureau of Land Management]

Yes, I know. We don’t vote by county. Besides, half of the country’s population lives in only 143 of those counties (5 percent) – enough to make Joe Biden president.

But a political party that relies on the east coast for money and the left coast for votes is not a national party. Democrats shouldn’t be surprised to discover they’ve alienated voters in that 83 percent of U.S. counties who feel ignored and have understandably turned anti-establishment.

It doesn’t have to be this way. There was a time when it wasn’t.

An oft-told story bears repeating.

As Ken Burns tells it, “When FDR's funeral procession went by, a man collapsed; he was so overcome. A neighbor picked him up and said, 'Did you know the president?' And he responded, 'No, but he knew me.'"

Few presidents since have made that connection. President Biden has a chance.

President Franklin Roosevelt’s legacy was a Democratic Party tent sheltering those in abject poverty, the working poor, union members, small farmers, and lower middle class. Had the party nurtured that coalition instead of Wall Street, knocked on their doors and listened, it would today control most city councils and state legislatures -- plus the U.S. House, Senate and White House.

Two Texas Democratic Party officials asked me, a college student, to run for the Legislature. Stunned, I explained I was an Iowa boy, with two part time jobs, a heavy course load and knew few Austin voters.

They responded with a story of another recruit. He mumbled while talking to his shoes and asking voters, “You wouldn’t vote for me would you?”

Now understanding their standards, and decidedly less flattered, I asked, “How’d he do?”

“He won,” one replied. “He knocked on every door in Travis County – and won.” I took a pass on that opportunity.

But I remembered the lesson during the 1962 Pat Brown-Richard Nixon gubernatorial race, door knocking in an unorganized county where I knew fewer voters than I’d known in Travis County, Texas. If they were willing to door-knock I’d assign them an area and move on.

Could the Democratic National Committee find at least one experienced campaign organizer to work each of the 2500 counties now painted red? Of course. And it must if it is to be a national party representing more than 5 percent of America’s counties and 50 percent of its people, building bridges well within Joel Miller’s reach.
_______________
Nicholas Johnson of Iowa City held three presidential appointments and is the author of Columns of Democracy. Comments: mailbox@nicholasjohnson.org

SOURCES
Joel Miller. Gage Miskimen, “Linn County Auditor Considers Run for Secretary of State,” The Gazette, Feb. 2, 2021, p. A3; https://www.thegazette.com/subject/news/linn-county-auditor-may-run-for-secretary-of-state-in-2022-20210202

Republican counties. Iowa Trump 93 Biden 6 (Black Hawk, Johnson, Linn, Polk, Scott, Story, https://www.politico.com/2020-election/results/iowa/

Republican counties U.S. “The Biden and Trump data in the posts appears to match the information reported by the Brookings Institute on Nov. 7. On Dec. 8, the think tank updated the report to say Biden had won 509 counties and Trump 2,547 counties, according to ‘unofficial results from 99% of counties.’” [Me: 509+2547=3056] https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-votes-counties-election/fact-check-clarifying-the-comparison-between-popular-vote-and-counties-won-in-the-2020-election-idUSKBN2931UY

143 counties, half population “U.S. Census Bureau, population is not homogeneously distributed across the country. In 2017, out of a total of 3,142 counties and county equivalents more than half of the population inhabited just 143 counties. https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-votes-counties-election/fact-check-clarifying-the-comparison-between-popular-vote-and-counties-won-in-the-2020-election-idUSKBN2931UY

“But he knew me.” Google search [“did you know" no "but he knew me"] turns up dozens of sources where quoted/told, but in sample none discovered with a citation to an acceptable academic or journalistic source. Maybe Ken Burns’ is the best for authenticity: Bob Fisher, “Ken Burns Spends 14 Hours with ‘The Roosevelts,” Documentary Magazine, Sept. 12, 2014, https://www.documentary.org/online-feature/ken-burns-spends-14-hours-roosevelts

# # #

Governor Kim Reynolds and Involuntary Manslaughter

"A person commits involuntary manslaughter . . . when the person unintentionally causes the death of another person by the commission of an act in a manner likely to cause death or serious injury."
Source: Iowa Code, Title 16, Sec. 707.5, https://www.legis.iowa.gov/law/iowaCode

"Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds on Friday [Feb. 5] lifted Iowa’s partial face mask mandate, public health restrictions on businesses and limits on public gatherings. . . .
Starting Sunday, the day of the Super Bowl:
• Iowans will no longer be required to wear face coverings in public when around other people for at least 15 minutes.
• Businesses will not be required to limit the number of customers or keep them socially distanced.
• No limits will be placed on the number of people who can gather in public.

Source: Erin Murphy, "Gov. Kim Reynolds lifting Iowa mask rules, limits on businesses and gatherings starting Sunday," The Gazette, Feb. 8, 2021, p. A1, https://www.thegazette.com/subject/news/health/iowa-covid-restrictions-lifted-mask-mandate-gatherings-gov-kim-reynolds-20210205

BREAKING NEWS! IT'S WORSE THAN WE THOUGHT
Can we now still say this is just a violation of the spirit behind the criminal law of involuntary manslaughter?

"Gov. Kim Reynolds did not consult her own public health department before lifting Iowa’s remaining COVID-19 mitigation strategies, including its partial face mask mandate . . .. Iowa Department of Public Health Director Kelly Garcia told the legislators the department was not consulted on the decision — that the governor made that decision on her own . . .."
For the full story see, Erin Murphy, "Gov. Reynolds did not consult state health department before lifting COVID restrictions, Iowa Democrats say," The Gazette, Feb. 9, 2021, p. A1

In some ways the most powerful evidence of the folly of her decision is that many restaurant/bar owners are, notwithstanding the voluntary reduction in their income, continuing to follow CDC standards (and common sense) rather than put the health of their customers, and other members of their communities, at dangerous risk. They are sending Governor Reynolds a sort of "Thanks, but no thanks."
"Christina and Mitch Springman, owners of The Map Room . . . in Cedar Rapids, said their employees’ health is at the core of their decision-making and they will keep their pandemic practices in place. 'They’re the ones interacting with the public. They’re the ones putting themselves at risk. . . . We expect our customers to respect our staff, and during a pandemic that means wearing a mask when within six feet and up and about.'” For the full story, see Gage Miskimen and Lee Hermiston, "Many Linn and Johnson County restaurants will practice COVID safety despite looser restrictions; Dozens of businesses have shared their plans on social media about maintaining mask rules and social distancing," The Gazette, Feb. 9, 2021, p. A1.

--------------- When it comes to managing this coronavirus global pandemic during 2020 the U.S. was one of the worst countries on Earth. With 4 percent of the world's population (328.2/7674 million) we managed to kill 20 (19.9) percent (459,895/2,303,322) of the world's COVID dead.

And among the U.S. states, Iowa is one of the worst for coronavirus deaths per 100,000 population (17th from the bottom) [Becker's Hospital Review, Feb. 5, https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/public-health/us-coronavirus-deaths-by-state-july-1.html]. Iowa's comparative ability to administer the vaccines it has received is even worse (at 59.26 percent it's 15th from the bottom of all states [Becker's Hospital Review, Feb. 5, https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/public-health/states-ranked-by-percentage-of-covid-19-vaccines-administered.html]. Oh, and let's not forget that Iowa's percentage of those tested that are positive ranges between 20 and 30+ percent -- compared with New York's earlier standard that schools would not reopen until the percent positive dropped below 3 percent -- and that it now has people who have tested positive for a varient of the virus that may not be stopped by current vaccines. And that our governor wants to make teachers and students go back to school, based on the CDC's statement that it's safe -- but without mentioning the CDC's conditions (masks, social distancing, improved ventilation, vaccines) which have been neither funded nor otherwise made available.

To repeal all of the mandates and suggestions from the Centers for Disease Control regarding control of this virus so that Iowans can gather together to watch the Super Bowl game, while infecting each other, may or may not prove to be good politics when she runs for reelection less than two years from now. But it will certainly leave her with fewer constituents.

The Iowa Code chapter dealing with "Homicide and Related Crimes" does not require that the defendant intended to kill a specific, named individual -- or unknown people in general in a mass shooting. It also deals with defendants who were engaged in behavior that they knew, or should have known, might result in the death of others. Whether what Governor Reynolds has just done violates the letter of Code Section 707 provisions I will leave to Iowa's criminal law attorneys and judges. Clearly (to me) it violates the spirit of these "right to adult life" protections.

# # #
P.S. If you'd like to see the fabulous Janet Schlapkohl playing the role of Governor Reynolds explaining her decision, look for the video she posted on Feb. 6, 2021, at about 10:00 a.m., on her Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/janet.schlapkohl

Democracy Is Not a Spectator Sport

Democracy Is Not a Spectator Sport

Nicholas Johnson
The Gazette, January 13, 2021, p. A6
On Feb. 14, 2014, Donald Trump told Fox, "When the economy crashes, when the country goes to total hell, and everything is a disaster, then you’ll have riots to go back to where we used to be, when we were great.”

By January 6, 2021, the economy had crashed, our federal government’s pandemic response was the world’s worst, and it seemed like “everything is a disaster.”

It was time for a Trump rally. He claimed “hundreds of thousands of American patriots” were there. The Park Service permit approved 30,000, and with no official count, the media settled on “thousands.”

Trump told them, “After this, we’re going to walk down — and I’ll be there with you — to the Capitol . . .because you’ll never take back our country with weakness, you have to show strength, and you have to be strong. We have come to demand that Congress do the right thing."

Minutes later, at the Capitol, we watched his followers’ “show strength” by staging one of Trump’s predicted “riots to go back to . . . when we were great.”

Some Americans are aware of our slowly crumbling columns of democracy, institutions essential to democracy’s creation and preservation. For them, Trump’s January 6 mob was no surprise. Riots are a part of the endgame in an authoritarian-wannabe’s playbook. It was only a matter of time.

Turns out representative democracy is not universally popular among Americans. The Pew Research Center found 13% thought it totally bad; others thought substitutions for elected officials with direct democracy (29%), experts (40%), strong leaders (22%), or military rule (17%) good ideas.

More voted last Nov. 3 than in any election for 120 years. That was 67% of eligible voters. One-third didn’t vote. An Ipsos survey revealed 23% were “not interested in politics.”

A democracy is fragile, and subject to President Lyndon Johnson’s observation that, “It takes a carpenter to build a barn, but any jackass can knock it down.”

We cannot know if it will be possible to rebuild our shattered democracy. What we do know is that it cannot be rebuilt just by substituting one president for another. It cannot be rebuilt by those who just “believe in” democracy or merely prefer it to alternatives.

It will require those who recognize and work to oppose attacks on the columns of democracy. A democracy requires an educated electorate, a trusted and independent mass media, a wise and nonpartisan judiciary, and efforts to increase, rather than suppress, ease of voting.

Inadequate education and library budgets are an attack on democracy. So is failure to support media with subscriptions and advertising, talk of “fake news” and “enemy of the people,” reverse Robin Hood legislation, or treating courts as a third political branch of government.

Are you willing to watch a little less television to have time for calls and emails to officials? Share more of the resources you can afford with local media and democracy-promoting candidates? Help sturdy our crumbling columns of democracy? [Image: Constitutional Convention of 1787, National Park Service]

If there are enough of us doing that, we have a prayer of rebuilding our barn, the democracy our founders hoped for. If not, we’re just waiting for the next authoritarian-wannabe, and the next January 6.

Nicholas Johnson of Iowa City is the author of Columns of Democracy (2018). Contact: mailbox@nicholasjohnson.org

SOURCES
"When the economy crashes, when the country goes to total hell, and everything is a disaster, then you’ll have riots to go back to where we used to be, when we were great.” “Donald Trump’s 2014 Political Predictions,” Fox News Interview, video, 6:26, Feb. 10, 2014, 2:02-2:12 https://video.foxnews.com/v/3179604851001#sp=show-clips Snopes https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-economy-crashing-quote/

"After this, we’re going to walk down — and I’ll be there with you — . . . to the Capitol . . .. Because you’ll never take back our country with weakness, you have to show strength, and you have to be strong. We have come to demand that Congress do the right thing . . .." Trump, Jan 6, 2021

"Donald Trump Speech 'Save America' Rally Transcript," Jan. 6, 2021, Segment beginning 16:25, https://www.rev.com/blog/transcripts/donald-trump-speech-save-america-rally-transcript-january-6

Snopes: https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-tell-supporters-storm/

Crowd size. “How Many Were at the MAGA Trump March & Protest in DC? Crowd Size Photos,” copy of Park Service permit (5000; modified to 30,000). Reports: “thousands” at rally “hundreds” at Capitol. https://heavy.com/news/maga-march-trump-dc-rally-crowd-photos/

NYTimes collection of stories: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/01/06/us/washington-dc-protests

Support for democracy: Richard Wike, Katie Simmons, Bruce Stokes and Janell Fetterolf, “Democracy widely supported, little backing for rule by strong leader or military,” Pew Research Center, Oct. 10, 2017, https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2017/10/16/democracy-widely-supported-little-backing-for-rule-by-strong-leader-or-military/

Percentage voting: Domenico Montanaro, “Poll: Despite Record Turnout, 80 Million Americans Didn't Vote. Here's Why,” Dec. 15, 2020, NPR, https://www.npr.org/2020/12/15/945031391/poll-despite-record-turnout-80-million-americans-didnt-vote-heres-why
Ipsos survey: "Nonvoters' reasons for not voting include: not being registered to vote (29%); not being interested in politics (23%) . . .." Ibid.

# # #

The Vaccines Are Coming!

The Vaccines Are Coming, Eventually

Nicholas Johnson
The Gazette, December 16, 2020, p. A6
The vaccines are coming! The vaccines are coming!

Hold it. No, they’re not. Not for most of us. Not now.

For maybe six months our “vaccine” remains “wear your mask, social distance, and wash your hands.”

By then, hopefully, over 70 percent of Americans will be vaccinated or next in line -- the participation required to restrain COVID-19. Can enough anti-vax folks be converted? Acceptance percentages are increasing, but a recent poll indicated, at that time, even 60 percent of nurses and 40 percent of doctors were not planning to be vaccinated.

There are reasons why most drugs’ clinical trials take years not months. Participants in the BioNTech SE (Pfizer) trial will be followed for two more years while the vaccine is being administered.

There’s no rational reason to refuse inoculation. But there are still questions, and evolving answers, as the world’s beta test group expands from thousands to millions. Here’s a checklist. [Photo credit: maine.gov]

Global pandemics require global eradiction. It took the World Health Organization 25 years to eradicate smallpox.

The BioNTech SE vaccine requires refrigeration at minus 94 degrees. Packing requires dry ice, now in short supply. Dry ice produces CO2 that, on planes, risks combustion.

Only 25 countries have access to minus-94-degree refrigeration, thereby excluding five billion people from vaccination.

Nor is equity guaranteed in the U.S. distribution to people of color, the poor, immigrants, prisoners, and low population rural areas.

Best case, distribution from manufacturers’ plants to Americans’ arms is a logistics nightmare, and the last mile is 50 governors’ responsibility. How has that been working for us the last 10 months?

What does “inoculation” mean? Will everyone show up for their second shot? What’s known about dosages? AstraZeneca discovered cutting the first dose in half dramatically improved results. Protection for mild infections only or more? For six months or a lifetime? Will annual vaccinations be required? Can those vaccinated still infect others? Has anyone been tasked with maintaining a national database of those vaccinated?

Little is known about the vaccines’ safety and effectiveness with children, pregnant women, and the oldest of the elderly. Five of the FDA’s Advisory Committee did not vote for approval, two because it was approved for those 16 and above. Two cases have revealed additional side effects for those with allergies. What additional side effects may emerge, for which groups, and how serious will they be?

Follow the money. Is this a profit maximization operation? Or is healthcare a right – especially when no one is protected from a global pandemic until everyone is? Who pays? Who profits? How much? Vaccine recipients? Individual states? The federal government? Pfizer’s CEO glowingly proclaimed its vaccine a success. The stock price escalated and he sold $5 million of his Pfizer shares at a profit.

Ultimately, every American who wants a vaccine can have one. By then we’ll know more about these vaccines. They can help mitigate COVID-19 cases and deaths. Sadly, our need, our goal is not mitigation but global eradication.
_______________
Nicholas Johnson, Iowa City, is former Co-Director of the Institute for Health, Behavior and Environmental Policy. mailbox@nicholasjohnson.org

# # #
SOURCES
Note: References for the data cited within this column are contained, below, sometimes with additional information, in the order in which they appear in the column.

70% for protection.

Janelle Wang, “Doctors: 70% Need to Get Vaccinated for Herd Immunity,” NBC Bay Area, last visited December 11, 2020, https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/coronavirus/doctors-70-need-to-get-vaccinated-for-herd-immunity/2417183/ (“Doctors say at least 70% of people need to get the coronavirus vaccine in order to eradicate the pandemic.”)

60% nurses, 40% doctors won’t get vaccinated. David Martin, "Inside the Operation Warp Speed effort to get Americans a COVID-19 vaccine," CBS, 60 Minutes, Nov. 8, 2020, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-19-vaccine-distribution-60-minutes-2020-11-08/ ("[New Jersey Health Commissioner] Judith Perisichelli: 'We surveyed 2,000 health care individuals, physicians and nurses and we know that over 60% of the physicians said that they would get the vaccine. We know that about 40% of the nurses said that they would line up to get the vaccine.'")

Ed Silverman, "STAT-Harris Poll: The share of Americans interested in getting Covid-19 vaccine as soon as possible is dropping," Stat News, Oct. 19, 2020, https://www.statnews.com/pharmalot/2020/10/19/covid19-coronavirus-pandemic-vaccine-racial-disparities/

Trials take years.

Elan Kantor, "How Long Do Clinical Trials Take?" Antidote, March 24, 2020, https://www.antidote.me/blog/how-long-do-clinical-trials-take (“Looking at the big picture, it takes approximately ten years for a new treatment to complete the journey from initial discovery to the marketplace. Clinical trials alone take six to seven years on average to complete.”)

Katie Thomas, David Gelles and Carl Zimmer, "Pfizer’s Early Data Shows Vaccine Is More Than 90% Effective," New York Times, Nov. 12, 2020; print edition Nov. 10, 2020, p. A1, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/09/health/covid-vaccine-pfizer.html (“Independent scientists have cautioned against hyping early results before long-term safety and efficacy data has been collected.”)

Pfizer to follow for 2 years.

Erika Edwards, "Pfizer's Covid-19 vaccine promising, but many questions remain; Pfizer's vaccine is a new type of technology that's never been used in mass human vaccination," NBC News, Nov. 10, 2020, https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/pfizer-s-covid-19-vaccine-promising-many-questions-remain-n1247102 (Pfizer's chief executive officer, Albert Bourla, told CNBC Monday that the drug maker will follow participants for two years to analyze safety and ongoing protection. 'As time progresses, we will find out about the durability of the protection,' Bourla said.”)

There are still questions.

“Erika Edwards, "Pfizer's Covid-19 vaccine promising, but many questions remain; Pfizer's vaccine is a new type of technology that's never been used in mass human vaccination," NBC News, Nov. 10, 2020, https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/pfizer-s-covid-19-vaccine-promising-many-questions-remain-n1247102 ("Pfizer's vaccine is a new type of technology that's never been used in mass human vaccination before and experts caution that much remains unknown about its safety, how long it might work and who might benefit most.")

Smallpox.

History of Smallpox, CDC, https://www.cdc.gov/smallpox/history/history.html

-94F.

Catherine Ho, “Pfizer Vaccine Needs to be Stored at minus 94 Degrees Fahrenheit; Is the Bay Area Prepared to do that?” San Francisco Chronicle, November 9, 2020, https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/Some-coronavirus-vaccines-need-to-be-stored-at-15711275.php

Dry ice; combustion.

Elisabeth Buchwald, “The perils of transporting millions of COVID-19 vaccines with dry ice across the U.S.,” MarketWatch, December 10, 2020, https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-challenges-and-perils-of-transporting-millions-of-covid-19-vaccines-with-dry-ice-across-the-u-s-11607355179 (“there are safety concerns about transporting large quantities of dry ice, which can emit carbon dioxide, on airplanes. Packaging dry ice in a container that does not allow adequate release of the gas could cause the container to explode from the built-up levels of pressure, a process known as sublimation. Dry ice can also deprive a confined space of oxygen, making it difficult to breathe. . . . the U.S. Department of Transportation and the International Air Transport Association classify dry ice as hazardous when transported. . . . The FAA has said it would allow United Airlines … to carry 15,000 pounds of dry ice per flight — five times more than normally permitted, The Wall Street Journal reported.”)

David Gelles, “How to Ship a Vaccine at –80°C, and Other Obstacles in the Covid Fight,” New York Times, September 19, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/18/business/coronavirus-covid-vaccine-cold-frozen-logistics.html ("When dry ice melts, it emits carbon dioxide, making the air on planes potentially unsafe for pilots and crew." "Dry ice . . . is made from carbon dioxide, . . . created as a byproduct during the production of ethanol. . . . This spring . . . people began driving less . . . ethanol production slumped, and so did the supply of carbon dioxide.")

25 countries with refrigeration.

David Gelles, “How to Ship a Vaccine at –80°C, and Other Obstacles in the Covid Fight,” New York Times, September 19, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/18/business/coronavirus-covid-vaccine-cold-frozen-logistics.html (“A recent study by DHL and McKinsey found that a cold vaccine would be accessible to about 2.5 billion people in 25 countries. Large parts of Africa, South America and Asia, where super-cold freezers are sparse, would be left out.”)

Governors’ responsibility.

Katie Thomas, David Gelles and Carl Zimmer, "Pfizer’s Early Data Shows Vaccine Is More Than 90% Effective," New York Times, Nov. 12, 2020; print edition Nov. 10, 2020, p. A1, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/09/health/covid-vaccine-pfizer.html (“it remains unclear where people will receive the shots, and what role the government will play in distribution.")

Astrazeneca half-dose.

Kaiser Health News, “New Results Confirm AstraZeneca’s Half-Dose ‘Mistake’ Is 90% Effective,” December 9, 2020, https://khn.org/morning-breakout/new-results-confirm-astrazenecas-half-dose-mistake-is-90-effective/ (“The partial results published in The Lancet on Tuesday confirmed that the two full doses given at least one month apart appeared to be 62% effective, while a half dose followed by a full dose was about 90% effective.”)

Immunization meaning.

Katie Thomas, David Gelles and Carl Zimmer, "Pfizer’s Early Data Shows Vaccine Is More Than 90% Effective," New York Times, Nov. 12, 2020; print edition Nov. 10, 2020, p. A1, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/09/health/covid-vaccine-pfizer.html (“no one knows how long the vaccine’s protection might last.” “an independent board reviewing the data has not told her or other company executives other details, such as how many of the people developed mild versus more severe forms of Covid-19.”)

Erika Edwards, "Pfizer's Covid-19 vaccine promising, but many questions remain; Pfizer's vaccine is a new type of technology that's never been used in mass human vaccination," NBC News, Nov. 10, 2020, https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/pfizer-s-covid-19-vaccine-promising-many-questions-remain-n1247102 (“would people previously sick with Covid-19 be protected against reinfection? That remains unclear.”)

Erika Edwards, "Pfizer's Covid-19 vaccine promising, but many questions remain; Pfizer's vaccine is a new type of technology that's never been used in mass human vaccination," NBC News, Nov. 10, 2020, https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/pfizer-s-covid-19-vaccine-promising-many-questions-remain-n1247102 (“This first analysis only included data on 94 confirmed Covid-19 cases, meaning there is no proof yet that the vaccine prevented infection.”)

Children, pregnant women, elderly.

Erika Edwards, "Pfizer's Covid-19 vaccine promising, but many questions remain; Pfizer's vaccine is a new type of technology that's never been used in mass human vaccination," NBC News, Nov. 10, 2020, https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/pfizer-s-covid-19-vaccine-promising-many-questions-remain-n1247102 ("'We don't know anything about groups they didn't study, like children, pregnant women, highly immunocompromised people and the eldest of the elderly,' Dr. Gregory Poland, director of the Mayo Clinic's Vaccine Research Group in Rochester, Minnesota, said.")

Four dissenters.

Laurie McGinley, Carolyn Y. Johnson and Joel Achenbach, “FDA says it ‘will rapidly work toward’ authorization of Pfizer-BioNTech coronavirus vaccine,” Washington Post, December 11, 2020, https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/12/10/fda-advisory-panel-recommends-covid-vaccine/ (“The committee voted yes, 17 in favor, four against and one abstention. . . . at least two dissenters objected to inclusion of 16- and 17-year-olds, given . . . how few had participated in the trial.”)

Alergies.

Danica Kirka, “UK Probes Whether COVID-19 Vaccine Caused Allergic Reactions,” Associated Press, December 9, 2020, https://apnews.com/article/uk-allergic-reaction-pfizer-vaccine-64ddccd70c38a39f880da27941db3540 ; The Gazette, December 10, 2020, p. A4

Who pays?

Riley Griffin, Drew Armstrong and Bloomberg, "Germany funded the development of Pfizer’s COVID vaccine—not U.S.’s Operation Warp Speed," Fortune, Nov. 9, 2020, https://fortune.com/2020/11/09/pfizer-vaccine-funding-warp-speed-germany/

Katie Thomas, David Gelles and Carl Zimmer, "Pfizer’s Early Data Shows Vaccine Is More Than 90% Effective," New York Times, Nov. 12, 2020; print edition Nov. 10, 2020, p. A1, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/09/health/covid-vaccine-pfizer.html (“Operation Warp Speed, the federal effort to rush a vaccine to market, has promised Pfizer $1.95 billion to deliver 100 million doses to the federal government”).

Pfizer CEO. Reuters Staff, "Pfizer CEO made $5.6 million stock sale on same day as COVID-19 vaccine update: filing," Business News, Reuters, Nov. 11, 2020, https://www.reuters.com/article/pfizer-albert-bourla-stake/pfizer-ceo-made-5-6-million-stock-sale-on-same-day-as-covid-19-vaccine-update-filing-idUSKBN27R1XL

# # #

Tags: anti-vax, AstraZeneca, BioNTech, children, COVID-19, doses, dry ice, eradication, FDA, herd immunity, immunization, infection, logistics, mitigation, Moderna, Pfizer, smallpox, vaccine, vaccination

# # #

Why Vaccine Is Not The Answer

Why Vaccine Is Not The Answer
Nicholas Johnson
November 12, 2020
Two days ago, in "Eradicating COVID-19 Should Be Goal" (The Gazette, November 10, 2020, p. A6), with strict space limits, this is all that was said about vaccines:

What about a vaccine . . . ?

Yes, a vaccine ultimately eliminated global smallpox. But consider the history. . . .

In 1959 the World Health Organization began its global eradication effort. The last death occurred in 1978, and WHO declared mission accomplished in 1980. Although . . . “vaccination” might mitigate [COVID-19's spread it is not] the answer. [Vaccination] is rejected by many, takes too long, and produces many thousands of avoidable additional deaths.

COVID-19 is a global pandemic. The world's people will not be safe from its spread until it has been eradicated in all nations. It took the WHO 21 years from start to completion of that task for smallpox -- and that was after it already had been eradicated in the U.S. and Europe! There is no reason to believe that global eradication of COVID-19 can be accomplished any quicker.

With a quick response and properly done, the test-trace-quarantine-isolate approach can eradicate COVID-19 from a given population and area in roughly two months. See "How to Eliminate COVID-19," (The The Gazette, April 4, 2020, p. A6). (Obviously, it would take much longer if there are delays in response, the coronavirus has spread to a large percentage of the population, and large areas and populations are involved -- as currently is the case in the U.S.)

1. Delay. So lengthy delays are one reason "why vaccine is not the answer." Obviously, a vaccine can be one of a number of efforts at mitigation ("flattening the increasing curve" of infected persons) along with mandatory masks, social distancing, shelter in place, limiting the size of gatherings, and closing some businesses. However, as the column, "Eradicating COVID-19 Should Be Goal," linked above, points out, mitigation efforts, while helpful, are not eradication.

There are many other drawbacks to vaccines in general and the Pfizer vaccine in particular. A list of categories (with discussion of each below) might include: distribution, new technology untested on humans, lengthy trials to prove they are safe and effective, the risks with "Warp Speed," groups omitted from study (e.g., children, pregnant women, eldest), lack of knowledge about nature of immunization, possibility of reinfection, impact on contagion, the widespread public rejection of vaccines, need for two doses.

2. Distribution logistics; Cold-Chain complications; Equitable distribution. Global distribution of a vaccine to 7.5 billion people is an extraordinary logistics challenge under the best of conditions. Pfizer's vaccine requires jumping over even more severe hurdles.

Cold-chain complications. "Wide distribution of Pfizer’s vaccine will be a logistical challenge. Because it is made with mRNA, the doses will need to be kept at ultra cold temperatures. While Pfizer has developed a special cooler to transport the vaccine . . . it remains unclear where people will receive the shots, and what role the government will play in distribution." [NYT] "A number of the leading Covid-19 vaccines under development will need to be kept at temperatures as low as . . . minus 112 degrees Fahrenheit . . . [until] they are ready to be injected into patients’ arms. . . . [These vaccines are] made with genetic materials that fall apart when they thaw. . . . Vaccines may be manufactured on one continent and shipped to another. They will go from logistics hub to logistics hub before ending up at the hospitals and other facilities that will administer them. . . . 'We’re only now beginning to understand the complexities of the delivery side of all of this,' said J. Stephen Morrison, senior vice president at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a research firm."

Nor is temperature maintenance easy when shipping the vaccine by air. "When dry ice melts, it emits carbon dioxide, making the air on planes potentially unsafe for pilots and crew." Moreover, "Dry ice . . . is made from carbon dioxide, . . . created as a byproduct during the production of ethanol. . . . This spring . . . people began driving less . . . ethanol production slumped, and so did the supply of carbon dioxide."

"Pfizer has designed . . . boxes . . . [to] hold a couple of hundred glass vials, each containing 10 to 20 doses of vaccine. . . . All of this leads to another problem: Glass often cracks in extreme cold." Moreover, "There wouldn’t be enough cold-resistant glass vials to handle a frozen vaccine, said Brendan Mosher, Corning’s head of pharmaceutical technologies."

Equitable distribution. "[E]everyday pharmacies are unlikely to be equipped to stockpile large quantities of vaccines that require ultracold storage. . . . strict temperature requirements 'will make it very difficult for community clinics and local pharmacies to store and administer.'. . . [A] cold vaccine would be accessible to about 2.5 billion people in 25 countries. Large parts of Africa, South America and Asia, where super-cold freezers are sparse, would be left out. 'The consequence is to reinforce the staggering bias in favor of the wealthy and powerful few countries,' said Mr. Morrison, of the Center for Strategic and International Studies." [NYT-2]

3. New Technology. "Pfizer's vaccine is a new type of technology that's never been used in mass human vaccination before and experts caution that much remains unknown about its safety, how long it might work and who might benefit most." [NBC]

4. Lengthy trials and "Warp Speed." "[I]t takes approximately ten years for a new treatment to complete the journey from initial discovery to the marketplace. Clinical trials alone take six to seven years on average to complete." [Antidote] [FDA] "Operation Warp Speed's goal is to produce and deliver 300 million doses of safe and effective vaccines with the initial doses available by January 2021, as part of a broader strategy to accelerate the development, manufacturing, and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics . . .." [HHS] [Photo credit: InsideHigherEd]

"Independent scientists have cautioned against hyping early results before long-term safety and efficacy data has been collected. . . . The data released by Pfizer Monday was delivered in a news release, not a peer-reviewed medical journal. It is not conclusive evidence that the vaccine is safe and effective, and the initial finding of more than 90 percent efficacy could change as the trial goes on." [NYT] Warp speed is a worrying speed when it comes to vaccines -- not the least of which is what we don't know for sure about its safety and efficacy, and the other topics in this blog post.

5. Trial's omissions. "'We don't know anything about groups they didn't study, like children, pregnant women, highly immunocompromised people and the eldest of the elderly,' Dr. Gregory Poland, director of the Mayo Clinic's Vaccine Research Group in Rochester, Minnesota, said." [NBC]

6. Immunization, Infection, Contagion. "It's also uncertain how long such protection might last. That answer can only come with time, as it's impossible to know yet whether immunity remains for months, a year, two years — or a lifetime. . . . Pfizer's chief executive officer, Albert Bourla, told CNBC Monday that the drug maker will follow participants for two years to analyze safety and ongoing protection. 'As time progresses, we will find out about the durability of the protection,' Bourla said. 'We will see how long the immunogenicity lasts and how long the cell immunity lasts.'" "This first analysis only included data on 94 confirmed Covid-19 cases, meaning there is no proof yet that the vaccine prevented infection." "It is unclear whether people who received the vaccine were less likely to be contagious." "'It's not necessarily going to protect you from infection, and it may not work for everyone,' Haseltine said Monday on MSNBC. 'But it should be useful for many people. And it should moderate the severity of disease.'"[NBC]

"[N]o one knows how long the vaccine’s protection might last. . . . [Pfizer senior vice president Dr. Kathrin] Jansen said that because the trial is continuing, an independent board reviewing the data has not told her or other company executives other details, such as how many of the people developed mild versus more severe forms of Covid-19 — crucial information that the F.D.A. has said it will need to evaluate any coronavirus vaccine." [NYT] "We don't yet have details about whether the vaccine blocked mainly mild cases, or if there is evidence that it seemed to prevent some severe infections, too. . . . [A]t this point, there’s no way to estimate how long protection from this or any Covid vaccine would last. The duration of protection will only become clear after the vaccines are in use for a while." [Stat] "[Dr. Gregory Poland, director of the Mayo Clinic's Vaccine Research Group pointed out] 'And would people previously sick with Covid-19 be protected against reinfection? That remains unclear.'" [NBC]

7. Public rejection. "Overall, 58% of the U.S. public said they would get vaccinated as soon as a vaccine was available . . .. That change suggests growing concern that the regulatory approval process for a Covid-19 vaccine has been politicized by the Trump administration . . .. 'There’s a historical level of distrust,' said [Harris Poll Managing Director Rob] Jekielek. 'And when you think about stalling the spread of Covid-19, these findings indicate that we face an increasingly bigger problem.'" [Stat-2] "[New Jersey Health Commissioner] Judith Perisichelli: 'We surveyed 2,000 health care individuals, physicians and nurses and we know that over 60% of the physicians said that they would get the vaccine. We know that about 40% of the nurses said that they would line up to get the vaccine.'" [CBS] The point of these percentages is the huge proportion of Americans who will not be vaccinated, making vaccination at best a part of a path to mitigation, but not eradication.

8. Two doses. "Pfizer has said it will not apply for emergency use authorization of its vaccine candidate until it has collected two months of safety information following the final dose of the vaccine. Pfizer's vaccine requires two doses, about a month apart." [NBC] Another drawback of the Pfizer vaccine is the requirement of two doses a month apart. For the populations within a school or workplace it is relatively easier to complete this routine: a week can be designated during which everyone will get the first shot, and a month later another week designated to give them the second dose, with records kept, and follow ups for those who missed one or the other dose during the designated times. But for individuals outside of such groups many things can interfere with the scheduled second dose: simple forgetfulness, a change of mind, the rationalization that one dose was probably enough, a trip or move out of town, being laid up with some other disease. The possibilities are endless. And there is still that resistance, described above in "Public rejection," of those unwilling to take any vaccine, for any disease, whether it's one dose or two.

9. Follow the money. Pfizer claimed to have received no taxpayer money. "Vice President Mike Pence was among Trump administration officials saying support from the government’s Operation Warp Speed program helped accelerate the development of the vaccine . . .. [Pfizer's] Chief Executive Officer Albert Bourla has repeatedly said that the drug giant has avoided taking taxpayer dollars for research and development purposes. . . . Pfizer didn’t receive any funding from Operation Warp Speed for the development, clinical trial and manufacturing of the vaccine. Rather, its partner, BioNTech SE, has received money [$445 million] -- from the German government." And Pfizer was promised in advance the U.S. government would buy 100 million doses of the vaccine for $2 billion. ("The Trump administration agreed in July to pay almost $2 billion for 100 million doses, with an option to acquire as many as 500 million more, once that clearance comes. . . . As part of that agreement, the U.S. gets to decide who gets the vaccine first . . .."). [Fortune] Since two doses are required, that works out to $40 per person. Oh, and don't forget: "Pfizer [CEO] Albert Bourla sold $5.56 million worth of company shares on Monday [Nov. 9], the day the drugmaker said its COVID-19 vaccine was 90% effective based on interim trial results . . .." After Pfizer's stock price rose, and CEO sold off $5.56 million worth of Pfizer stock one can't help but wonder what he knew that we don't. [Reuters]

# # #
SOURCES
Antidote. Elan Kantor, "How Long Do Clinical Trials Take?" Antidote, March 24, 2020, https://www.antidote.me/blog/how-long-do-clinical-trials-take

CBS. David Martin, "Inside the Operation Warp Speed effort to get Americans a COVID-19 vaccine," CBS, 60 Minutes, Nov. 8, 2020, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-19-vaccine-distribution-60-minutes-2020-11-08/

FDA. "Step 3: Clinical Research," U.S. Food & Drug Administration, https://www.fda.gov/patients/drug-development-process/step-3-clinical-research

Fortune. Riley Griffin, Drew Armstrong and Bloomberg, "Germany funded the development of Pfizer’s COVID vaccine—not U.S.’s Operation Warp Speed," Fortune, Nov. 9, 2020, https://fortune.com/2020/11/09/pfizer-vaccine-funding-warp-speed-germany/

HHS. "Fact Sheet: Explaining Operation Warp Speed; What's the goal?" Coronavirus, HHS, Oct. 28, 2020, https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html

NBC. Erika Edwards, "Pfizer's Covid-19 vaccine promising, but many questions remain; Pfizer's vaccine is a new type of technology that's never been used in mass human vaccination," NBC News, Nov. 10, 2020, https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/pfizer-s-covid-19-vaccine-promising-many-questions-remain-n1247102

NBC-2. David Gelles, "How to Ship a Vaccine at –80°C, and Other Obstacles in the Covid Fight; Developing an effective vaccine is the first step. Then comes the question of how to deliver hundreds of millions of doses that may need to be kept at arctic temperatures," New York Times, Sept. 19, 2020, print edition Sept. 19, 2020, p. A7, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/18/business/coronavirus-covid-vaccine-cold-frozen-logistics.html

NYT. Katie Thomas, David Gelles and Carl Zimmer, "Pfizer’s Early Data Shows Vaccine Is More Than 90% Effective," New York Times, Nov. 12, 2020; print edition Nov. 10, 2020, p. A1, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/09/health/covid-vaccine-pfizer.html

Reuters. Reuters Staff, "Pfizer CEO made $5.6 million stock sale on same day as COVID-19 vaccine update: filing," Business News, Reuters, Nov. 11, 2020, https://www.reuters.com/article/pfizer-albert-bourla-stake/pfizer-ceo-made-5-6-million-stock-sale-on-same-day-as-covid-19-vaccine-update-filing-idUSKBN27R1XL

Stat. Helen Branswell, "Four reasons for encouragement based on Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine results," Statnews, Nov. 9, 2020, https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/09/four-reasons-for-encouragement-based-on-pfizers-covid-19-vaccine-results/

Stat-2. Ed Silverman, "STAT-Harris Poll: The share of Americans interested in getting Covid-19 vaccine as soon as possible is dropping," Stat News, Oct. 19, 2020, https://www.statnews.com/pharmalot/2020/10/19/covid19-coronavirus-pandemic-vaccine-racial-disparities/

# # #