Wednesday, December 28, 2022

COVID's Risks

Assessing Potential Risks of COVID-19
Nicholas Johnson
The Gazette, December 28, 2022, p. A6

Too often, following a series like Erin Jordan’s reports on the Marengo explosion and fire, a school shooting, or events on Jan. 6, a corporate executive or public official may say, “This must never happen again.”

My response, “Well, of course.” But “never happen again” is never enough for me. What I want to know is why the folks who get the big bucks to prevent such disasters didn’t prevent this one.

Could all disasters be prevented? Of course not. But there are procedures used in business, government and the military that could reduce the number substantially.

The procedures deal with “risk”; risk perception, risk analysis, risk assessment, risk management and risk communication — procedures useful in our daily lives as well.

Based on others’ experiences, and using our imagination, what’s the risk of driving without fastening the seat belt? Serious injury or death in an accident. What’s the likelihood of it happening? How serious would it be if it did? What does it cost in time, money and inconvenience to fasten the seat belt?

As either the likelihood or seriousness of the risks increase, we’re less likely to gamble on their happening. As either or both are minimal, we’re less concerned.


Which brings us to COVID. What are the risks? If we become infected we can infect others, even if we have no symptoms. Some of the unpleasant symptoms can include fever, sore throat, fatigue, and loss of taste or smell, requiring cancellation of work and plans. “Long COVID” (possible monthslong serious symptoms), hospital stays and death are additional risks. [Photo source: commons.Wikimedia.org]

At one extreme are those who never leave their house. At the other are those who haven’t been vaccinated, never wear masks, and sit with friends in crowded bars.

In between are most of us, wondering whether an N95 mask is worth the added protection. Balancing the pleasure of being with family and friends who say they’re fully vaccinated against the risk one may be infected but not symptomatic. We want to follow President Barack Obama’s admonition: “Don’t do stupid stuff.” But not to extremes.

Tennessee Williams, a University of Iowa student in 1937-38, and noted for his 1947 play, “A Streetcar Named Desire” (among others), closed the play with the character, Blanche DuBois’ last line, “I have always depended on the kindness of strangers.”

Blanche had her challenges, but her revelation expresses the lack of foresight that many of us, including myself, have on at least one occasion brought to risky behavior.

Iowa City Historian Irving Weber’s son, Willis, and I were neighbors and partners in numerous risky explorations and experiments. One involved running a telegraph line from the roof of my house, across Melrose Court, to the roof of his. There is no way I would be climbing on either roof today. But back then it wasn’t that we thought ourselves invincible, it’s that we didn’t think about risk at all.

Today, at 88, I’m holding stairway railings and I gave up my love of bicycling. I’ve found the tools of risk assessment useful. Maybe you would, too.
_______________
Nicholas Johnson, now fully vaccinated, was former co-director of the Iowa Institute for Health, Behavior and Environmental policy. mailbox@nicholasjohnson.org

SOURCES
Erin Jordan/Marengo. E.g., Erin Jordan, “Marengo officials worry about long-term cleanup costs after explosion,” The Gazette, Dec. 22, 2022, p. A1, https://www.thegazette.com/environment-nature/marengo-officials-worry-about-long-term-cleanup-costs-after-explosion/

Never happen again. E.g., John Costa, “ATU Shocked and Saddened by Fatal Texas School Shooting,” Amalgamated Transit Union, May 25, 2022, https://www.atu.org/media/press/2022/atu-shocked-and-saddened-by-fatal-texas-school-shooting (“We must find the courage to come together as a nation to take serious action to ensure that these unspeakable acts of violence never happen again.”)

Risk. Lisa D. Ellis, “Using a Risk Analysis Framework to Guide COVID-19 Decisions,” Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Jan 7, 2021, https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/ecpe/using-risk-analysis-in-covid-19/ (“Risk analysis is a scientific tool that can help us assess threats to human health, provide input into how to manage these risks, and enable us to communicate more effectively with the general public about how best to respond to the threats,” says James K. Hammitt … “For communicable diseases like COVID-19, which are spread from one person to the next, a person’s risk is affected by other people’s behaviors.” … Risk analysis … includes the following three key steps: risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication.” … “We can estimate how much an action might reduce transmission, then find out how costly or burdensome it would be. Keep in mind that some interventions are costly, but they don’t reduce the risk much. So, you need to weigh each intervention to see if it makes sense,” he says. … some experts felt it would be better to let people develop herd immunity. Whether the latter is a good idea depends on how willing people are to get sick, and how many will die, and how costly it is to try other things,” … System 1 is fast and is based on feelings. This is usually our default system. System 2 is analytical and takes more effort and more time, so we can’t activate this system too often,” he notes. … system 2 and think more carefully about how much risk their actions could have. As a result, they might decide not to gather because the chance of harming loved ones outweighs the benefit of getting together. … activate system 2 and think more carefully about how much risk their actions could have. As a result, they might decide not to gather because the chance of harming loved ones outweighs the benefit of getting together.)

Google search: “what college courses deal with risk assessment” (“Relevant majors/degrees: Risk management. Management or business studies. Finance or economics. Science Statistics. Engineering. Law.

MBA risk management includes: Liability Insurance. Agricultural Insurance. Marine Insurance. Life Insurance. Fire Insurance. Investment Planning and Management. Risk Management. Marketing of Financial Services.

Risk Management … Framework … Information Systems … Plan … Agency …Tools”)

Risk in everyday life. Your Dictionary Staff, “Examples of Risk You Encounter Daily,” YourDictionary, https://examples.yourdictionary.com/examples-of-risk.html (“A teenager knows that she will be grounded if she chooses to invite friends over after school instead of doing her homework, but also knows that the likelihood of her parents finding out she did so is slight. If the teenager chooses to invite her friends over she is taking a risk of getting in trouble with her parents.
• A 55-year old man wants to quickly increase his retirement fund. In order to do so at a rapid pace, he must change his investments to those that could either yield higher results or completely fail, in which case he would lose his retirement. If the man chooses to move his investments to those in which he could possibly lose his money, he is a taking a risk.
• A gambler decides to take all of his winnings from the night and attempt a bet of "double or nothing." The gambler's choice is a risk in that he could lose all that he won in one bet.
• An employee knows that the time for him to leave work is contractually at 5 p.m. and leaving early puts his job in jeopardy. However, the man is motivated to get home early to let out his sick dog. By leaving early, the man is risking getting caught and facing the consequences of breaking the rules.
• A driver is approaching a yellow light and must choose to brake in order to stop in time for the light to turn red or to accelerate to make it through the light before it turns red. If the driver accelerates, he is risking going through the light which could result in an accident or a ticket.
• A student in college knows that there is a curfew by which students are expected to be back on campus in the evening. However, the student wants to stay out later with the group she is with. If she chooses to stay out past the curfew time, she is risking experiencing the consequences for choosing not to follow the rules.
• A man lost his job and is unable to pay his rent. As a result, he makes the choice to steal money from the local convenience store. In doing so, he risks being caught and arrested.
• A woman gets into her car in the morning and notices that the gas level is low. She chooses to drive to work, regardless, without stopping at a gas station. By making this choice she is risking that she will run out of gas in her car on the way to work.
• A woman watches a man kidnap a child. In order to keep him from getting away from the scene of the crime, the woman jumps in front of the car. By doing this, she risked her life in order to save the child.”)

Mike Patton, “Everyone Needs Risk Management,” Forbes, Nov. 30, 2014, https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikepatton/2014/11/30/everyone-needs-risk-management - excellent (essential?) article, requires Forbes subscription

Daniel Speiss, “The Importance of Risk Management in Daily Life,” Linkedin, Nov. 15, 2021, https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/importance-risk-management-daily-life-daniel-%D7%93%D7%A0%D7%99%D7%90%D7%9C-speiss (“• Every decision we make is laced or spiked with an underlying layer called risk, and navigating life without knowing that risk is an active participant in what makes your present moment and future are, well, risky.
• What do I mean by risk? Every decision that we decide to enact, whether that decision is social, experiential, financial, has to do with risk management.
• Managing risk isn't something we're taught in school, even at a college or university level. Most people go through life unaware of risk being one of the many materials that go into the structure of making choices.
• Everyone is going to have a personal attitude towards risk and risk management. Some people ignore risk by not doing anything risky (which still implies risk), some play the middle of doing a little of both, and some people are all-around risk-takers. Everyone is at some point on the spectrum of how they view and utilize risk and risk management.
• The purpose of this read is to elicit a remembrance of risk, that risk is something we do and use every day, in the most unexpected ways. Risk is a unique tool to help guide us in life when making any and all decisions.
• Examples of risk could be how you manage your health (or not), how you strategize your performance at work and meet your goals, who you allow into your life, and the effects that have on your social life and network. You could even say that there is risk in what coffee mug you want to use in the morning, when one mug elicits a micro mood as opposed to the other and how that will affect your day.
• When considering important decisions, consider the risks, your goals, and the expected outcome you want. When making the small choices in your day, how are you guiding yourself to manage the theme tied to these choices?
• If you are easily stressed, do you manage the risk of being exposed to stressors in your day-to-day life? If you need to watch your diet, are you managing the risk of your exposure to friends, family, and places that encourage behavior that would go against your current efforts?
• Poor risk management skills come at a cost, and that cost is what you want out of life. Managing risk can be the difference between seeing your dreams as intangible and seeing them as a reality
• Thinking differently about how you approach to risk can change your life within days, given the attention.
• If you are to leave this blog post with anything, I would only encourage you to think about risk, how risk is involved in your life both big and small, and challenge yourself to think about the magnitude in which you manage risk in your life.
• What are your goals? Write them down, and then think about setbacks you've had towards those goals. You will find within every goal, every desire, the risk is there, mostly unmanaged and unmitigated.
• What will you do differently knowing the risk is a key player in life and what happens to you?”)

“How to Manage Risk in Your Daily Life,” Fashion Gone Rogue, fashiongonerogue.com/how-manage-risk-your-daily-life/ (“while driving may be a risk, wearing a seatbelt reduces the risks.

Many people right now are at a big of a crossroads in how they think about risk, however, with the covid-19 pandemic. …

In essentially every way, there are usually four general steps of risk management. The first is assessing the risk. Then, there is categorizing the risk. This means you determine if the risk is small or minor to you, or more serious and severe.

You have to think about the probability of risks occurring too.

Then, once you’ve handled these steps, you can start considering your options. Education can be used in all of these steps.”)

Adnan Manzoor, “7 Ways to Apply Risk Management to Your Personal Life,” Lifehack, https://www.lifehack.org/515631/7-ways-apply-risk-management-your-personal-life

COVID Risk. “Symptoms,” COVID-19, CDC, Oct. 26, 2022, https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/symptoms-testing/symptoms.html

Google search: COVID risk assessment and masks

Lisa D. Ellis, “Risk Analysis in the COVID-19 Pandemic: Weighing the Cost and Benefits of Vaccines and Masks,” Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Nov 7, 2021, https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/ecpe/risk-analysis-in-the-covid-19-pandemic-weighing-the-cost-and-benefits-of-vaccines-and-masks/ (“Every single day, people take risks. They drive in cars and fly in airplanes, expose themselves to environmental pollution and so much more. While some of these public health risks are so integrated into our lives that we’ve stopped worrying about them, other risks—such as engaging in activities that increase your likelihood of contracting COVID-19—can be much harder to ignore right now. … look to a risk analysis framework to measure the level of threat and to determine how best to respond and communicate the risk to others. Specifically, you can use this framework to compare the cost of actions like masking with the extent of how that might reduce transmission and save lives. When you weigh these two factors against each other, you can determine if the cost of the action is worth the benefit—in this case, reducing the number of people getting sick and dying. … “People who are vaccinated are less likely to contract COVID-19, and if they do become infected, they are less likely to become very ill or die. With masks on the other hand, it seems clear that they do a lot to help the wearer not infect other people,” he adds. … “)

“Analyzing Risk: Principles, Concepts and Applications,” Harvard School of Public Health, Continuing Education, Feb 11-14, 2019, https://alumni.sph.harvard.edu/s/1319/02-HSPH/20/interior.aspx?sid=1319&gid=2&pgid=1661&cid=3456&ecid=3456&crid=0&calpgid=13&calcid=664

Devabhaktuni Srikrishna, “How to Judge COVID Risks and When to Wear a Mask; Scientific American asks experts in medicine, risk assessment and other fields how to balance the risks of COVID with the benefits of visiting public indoor spaces,” Scientific American, Apr 19, 2022, https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-to-make-smart-decisions-about-covid-risk-benefit1/

Risk Assessment, Wikipedia.org, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk_assessment (“This involves identification of risk (what can happen and why), the potential consequences, the probability of occurrence, the tolerability or acceptability of the risk, and ways to mitigate or reduce the probability of the risk.[2] … At the individual level, a simple process of identifying objectives and risks, weighing their importance, and creating plans, may be all that's necessary. … Exposure to a pathogen may or may not result in actual infection, and the consequences of infection may also be variable. Similarly, a fall from the same place may result in minor injury or death, depending on unpredictable details. In these cases, estimates must be made of reasonably likely consequences and associated probability of occurrence. … General health There are many resources that provide health risk information.

The National Library of Medicine provides risk assessment and regulation information tools for a varied audience.[24] These include:

TOXNET (databases on hazardous chemicals, environmental health, and toxic releases),[25] … The US Environmental Protection Agency provides extensive information about ecological and environmental risk assessments for the public via its risk assessment portal.[29] … In project management, risk assessment is an integral part of the risk management plan, studying the probability, the impact, and the effect of every known risk on the project, as well as the corrective action to take should an incident be implied by a risk occur.[37] … the probability and magnitude of unfavorable outcomes such as injury, illness, or property damage due to environmental and related causes, compared to the human development or other benefits of outdoor activity.”)

A Heeney 1, F Hand 2, J Bates 2, O Mc Cormack 2, K Mealy 2, “Surgical mortality - an analysis of all deaths within a general surgical department,” Surgeon, Surgeon . 2014 Jun;12(3):121-8. doi: 10.1016/j.surge.2013.07.005. Epub 2013 Sep 8, PubMed.gov, https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24021395/ (“Mortality rate following elective surgery was 0.17% and following emergency surgery was 10-fold higher (1.7%). The main cause of post-operative death was sepsis (30.02%). Emergency operations, increasing age and major procedures significantly increased mortality risk (p < 0.001).”)

Long COVID. Michael Marshall, “The Lasting Misery of Coronavirus Long-Haulers; Months after infection with SARS-CoV-2, some people are still battling crushing fatigue, lung damage and other symptoms of ‘long COVID,’” nature, Sept. 14, 2020, https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02598-6

“Long-Term Effects of Coronavirus (Long COVID),” National Health Service England, Oct. 24, 2022, https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/long-term-effects-of-coronavirus-long-covid/

Tae Chung, et al, “Long COVID: Long-Term Effects of COVID-19,” Health, Johns Hopkins, June 14, 2022, https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/covid-long-haulers-long-term-effects-of-covid19

Mayo Clinic Staff, “COVID-19: Long-Term Effects,” Mayo Clinic, June 28, 2022, https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/coronavirus-long-term-effects/art-20490351

“Long COVID or Post-COVID Conditions,” COVID-19, CDC, Dec. 16, 2022, https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/long-term-effects/index.html

“Long COVID: Some COVID-19 Symptoms Last for Months,” UC Davis, Feb. 10, 2022, https://health.ucdavis.edu/coronavirus/covid-19-information/covid-19-long-haulers

Tennessee Williams. “Tennessee Williams,” LitCity, University of Iowa, https://litcity.lib.uiowa.edu/person/tennessee-williams/ (“Tom Williams, an aspiring playwright and transfer student a year short of a degree . . . enrolled at the University of Iowa, earning his B.A. in 1938, and soon thereafter picked up the moniker ‘Tennessee.’”)

Willis Weber. See my “In Memoriam: Willis Weber,” FromDC2Iowa, Nov. 5, 2006, https://fromdc2iowa.blogspot.com/2006/11/in-memoriam-willis-weber.html

Kindness of strangers. “Streetcar Named Desire,” text, https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=sites&srcid=Zy5oYXlzY2lzZC5uZXR8bXJzLXN1bWVyc3xneDoyOTc4ZGVkZjA2NjJhOTUw

# # #

Tuesday, December 13, 2022

A Profit Deal

Gambling is a "Profit Deal"
Nicholas Johnson
The Gazette, December 13, 2022, p. A6

Steve Martin plays the intellectually challenged character Navin Johnson in the 1979 movie, “The Jerk.” Navin’s lack of weight-guessing ability at the fair is losing money for the owner. Informed of this, Navin responds, “I get it, this is a profit deal!”

The same insight came to me 32 years earlier. Dad had been invited to teach a University of Southern California summer session. After exams, we travelled up California’s scenic Highway 1 to San Francisco. Dad wanted to visit the parents of one of his graduate students. They lived in what then seemed to me a huge, multi-storied house.

The owner, not wishing to include me in grown-ups’ talk, handed me a straw hat filled with slugs the size of five-cent nickels and showed me a staircase to the attic. That’s where I was to play with slot machines until called.

Since I was carrying a small spiral notepad and pencil, I saw this as an opportunity for research. I made a mark for each slug inserted in the machine and for each one it coughed up that clanked in the tray.

Always careful with my newspaper delivery money, that was the day I decided to opt for saving, rather than gambling. It’s not that I never go into casinos. I do. I once interviewed a fellow in Vegas who seemed to know the payout percentages of every slot machine in town. Casinos are a significant sub-set of America. I just don’t leave any money there.

Gambling has a long history among Homo Sapiens. The first “dice,” made of animals’ teeth, date from 3000 B.C. But they were primarily used for divining the future rather than betting on it. Venice had the first casino in 1638. And though church basement bingo has lost popularity, friends’ weekly poker games and other betting continues.

Today’s increases in problem gambling and addiction are consequences of its commercialization. Gambling’s become a super-profitable industry. From 2021 to 2022 global gambling went from $287 to $456 billion, with projections of $840 billion by 2026.

Meanwhile, risks of gambling addiction grew 30 percent from 2018 to 2021. Five percent of those from 11 to 17 are showing signs of problem gambling. Gambling addiction is increasingly recognized as a brain disease, like addictions to alcohol, nicotine or other drugs.

Addicts are money makers. Drug dealers give free first doses. Sports gambling gives free first bets. Gambling soon becomes for many like a pandemic with no vaccine – impacting others like the second-hand smoke from cigarettes.

The industry uses technology, marketing and advertising manipulation to spread its tentacles throughout our society and grow its customer base. [Photo credit: Nicholas Johnson. "[T]he last time I checked (so it may have changed), the Kinnick scoreboard was still running an advertisement for the Riverside gambling casino, and the casino still had a Kinnick skybox for its high rollers." "Does Herky Have a Gambling Problem?" FromDC2Iowa.blogspot.com, January 25, 2012, https://tinyurl.com/44fxhmvp. NOTE DATE.]

States like Iowa, once criminalizing gambling, now profit from lotteries and their take of casinos’ profits. Anyone with a smartphone is a potential customer for the gambling industry – from anywhere and at any time.

Want to know more? Take the advice of Woodward and Bernstein’s source, “Deep Throat”: “follow the money.” In the long game the house always wins. Commercialized gambling is, indeed, “A profit deal.”

Nicholas Johnson is waiting for sports next gambling-related scandal. Contact mailbox@nicholasjohnson.org

SOURCES
“The Jerk.”

“The Jerk,” 1979, https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0079367

Brain disease.

Ferris Jabr, “How the Brain Gets Addicted to Gambling; Addictive drugs and gambling rewire neural circuits in similar ways,” Scientific American, Nov. 1, 2013, https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-the-brain-gets-addicted-to-gambling/ (“In the 1980s, while updating the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM), the American Psychiatric Association (APA) officially classified pathological gambling as an impulse-control disorder …. In what has come to be regarded as a landmark decision, the association moved pathological gambling to the addictions chapter [May 2013]. The decision, which followed 15 years of deliberation, reflects a new understanding of the biology underlying addiction and has already changed the way psychiatrists help people who cannot stop gambling.”)

“Is Addiction Really a Disease?”, Indiana University Health, Nov. 14, 2022, https://iuhealth.org/thrive/is-addiction-really-a-disease

“Gambling Addiction and the Brain,” Brain Facts.org, Sept. 3, 2015, https://www.brainfacts.org/diseases-and-disorders/addiction/2015/gambling-addiction-and-the-brain

Gambling history.

“Gambling, Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambling (“In Mesopotamia the earliest six-sided dice date to about 3000 BCE. However, they were based on astragali dating back thousands of years earlier. In China, gambling houses were widespread in the first millennium BCE, and betting on fighting animals was common. Lotto games and dominoes (precursors of Pai Gow) appeared in China as early as the 10th century.[7] Playing cards appeared in the 9th century CE in China. Records trace gambling in Japan back at least as far as the 14th century.[8] Poker, the most popular U.S. card game associated with gambling, derives from the Persian game As-Nas, dating back to the 17th century.[9] The first known casino, the Ridotto, started operating in 1638 in Venice, Italy.[10]” …”)

The Gambler’s Lament, Wikipedia.org, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_Lament (“The Gambler's lament” or "Gamester's lament") is one of the hymns of the Rigveda … in the late Tenth Book (RV 10.34), . . . the early Indian Iron Age.” “The poem consists of a monologue of a repentant gambler who laments the ruin brought on him because of addiction to dice.[4]”

Rigveda, Wikipedia.org/wiki/Rigveda, “The Rigveda is the oldest known Vedic Sanskrit text.[7] Its early layers are among the oldest extant texts in any Indo-European language.[8][note 2] . . . Philological and linguistic evidence indicates that the bulk of the Rigveda Samhita was composed in . . . the Indian subcontinent . . . between c. 1500 and 1000 BCE,[13][14][15] . . . c. 1900–1200 BCE has also been given.[16][17][note 1]”

Kathryn Selig Brown, “Life of the Buddha,” The Met, https://www.metmuseum.org/toah/hd/buda/hd_buda.htm (“ According to tradition, the historical Buddha lived from 563 to 483 B.C., although scholars postulate that he may have lived as much as a century later.”)

Sigālovāda Sutta, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sig%C4%81lov%C4%81da_Sutta (“Sigalovada Sutta is the 31st Sutta described in the Digha Nikaya ("Long Discourses of Buddha").[1]” “The Buddha first describes fourteen evil ways that should be avoided by a householder. The Buddha enumerates these evil ways to be avoided as: . . . the six ways of squandering wealth: 1. indulging in intoxicants 2. wandering the streets at inappropriate times 3. frequenting public spectacle 4. compulsive gambling 5. malevolent companionship 6. habitual idleness
Private gambling.

Hamil R. Harris, “Church Bingo's Number Is Up,” Washington Post, January 24, 2004, https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/local/2004/01/24/church-bingos-number-is-up/70658937-d980-4b3d-9a74-22b6aa759607/

Gambling in Iowa.

“The State of Gambling in Iowa and How It Is Influencing the Economy,” The Daily Iowan, June 14, 2021, Dailyiowan.com/2021/06/14/the-state-of-gambling-in-iowa-and-how-it-is-influencing-the-economy/

“Gambling Legislation in Iowa,” The Daily Iowan, Aug. 28, 2020, https://dailyiowan.com/2020/08/28/gambling-legislation-in-iowa/ (“[Iowa] has a grand total of 19 different casinos, second only to Nevada in the number of casinos per capita.” “The most recent change . . . has been the arrival of sports betting [following the] May 2018 [decision] … by the US Supreme Court that all states who wanted to make the activity legal should be permitted.” “[It] is only legal to play [poker] for money within licensed casinos. This means that games played anywhere from bars to people’s homes which involve gambling could make the organisers liable to prosecution.”)

Todd Dorman, “Iowa’s gambling flood gates opened 50 years ago,” The Gazette, Sep. 24, 2021, https://www.thegazette.com/opinion/iowas-gambling-flood-gates-opened-50-years-ago/

Increase gambling addiction.

Stephen Marche, “America’s Gambling Addiction is Metastasizing,” The Atlantic, Nov. 26, 2021, https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/11/world-our-casino/620791/ (“Gambling also leads, indirectly, to increases in violent crime, suicide, divorce, and bankruptcy.”)

Rob Davies, “Problem gamblers at 15 times higher risk of suicide, study finds,” The Guardian, March 12, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/mar/13/problem-gamblers-at-15-times-higher-risk-of-suicide-study-finds (“The study found that suicide rates increased 19-fold among men between the ages of 20 and 49 if they had a gambling problem and by 15 times among men and women of all ages.”)

Martha C. Shaw, et al., “The Effect of Pathological Gambling on Families, Marriages, and Children,” Research Gate, Sept. 2007, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/6171219_The_Effect_of_Pathological_Gambling_on_Families_Marriages_and_Children (“Pathological gambling (PG) is widely reported to have negative consequences on marriages, families, and children. Empirical evidence is only now accumulating but when put together with anecdotal information, the extent of these problems is clear. PG contributes to chaos and dysfunction within the family unit, disrupts marriages, leading to high rates of separation and divorce, and is associated with child abuse and neglect.”)

Chelsea Connor, “Do Casinos Increase Crime?” Story Maps, Dec. 13, 2020, https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/6ee1a03d004445ca97377b1f59e14554 (“Approximately one half of compulsive gamblers commit crime. Typically, their motivation is financial and non-violent to either collect more money to gamble or repay debts.” “[T]he Horseshow Casino in Baltimore … was constructed August 26, 2014. I will use crime data in 2014 showing pre-conditions and 5 years after construction, 2019, to show post conditions. … Total crime count for 2014 was 42,620. Total crime count for 2019 was 1,638,600.”)

“Problem gambling,” Wikipedia.org, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Problem_gambling (“Impact (Australia) According to the Productivity Commission’s 2010 final report into gambling, the social cost of problem gambling is close to 4.7 billion dollars a year. Some of the harms resulting from problem gambling include depression, suicide, lower work productivity, job loss, relationship breakdown, crime and bankruptcy.[55] A survey conducted in 2008 found that the most common motivation for fraud was problem gambling, with each incident averaging a loss of $1.1 million.[55]” . . . “Nevada has the highest percentage of pathological gambling; a 2002 report estimated 2.2 to 3.6 percent of Nevada residents over the age of 18 could be called problem gamblers.” . . . “According to a 1997 meta-analysis by Harvard Medical School’s division on addictions, 1.1 percent of the adult population of the United States and Canada could be called pathological gamblers.[63] A 1996 study estimated 1.2 to 1.9 percent of adults in Canada were pathological.[64]” . . . “approximately 6 million American adults are addicted to gambling.[67]” Signs of a gambling problem include:[67][medical citation needed] • Using income or savings to gamble while letting bills go unpaid • Repeated unsuccessful attempts to stop gambling • Chasing losses • Losing sleep over thoughts of gambling • Arguing with friends or family about gambling behavior • Feeling depressed or suicidal because of gambling losses”)

Gambling a profitable industry.

“Gambling Global Market Report 2022,” The Business Research Company, thebusinessresearchcompany.com/report/gambling-global-market-report (“The global gambling market grew from $287.43 billion in 2021 to $456.61 billion in 2022 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 58.9%. . . . The gambling market is expected to grow to $840.29 billion in 2026 at a CAGR of 16.5%.”)

Adam Scovette, “Casinos and Regional Economies: Has the Game Changed?” Economic Brief, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, July 2022, No. 22-28, Casinos and Regional Economies: Has the Game Changed?

Increased number of gamblers.

Nicholas Johnson, “Move to online gambling a bad deal for Iowans,” Letter to the Editor, Iowa City Press Citizen, April 7, 2021, https://www.press-citizen.com/story/opinion/letters-to-the-editor/2021/04/07/press-citizen-letters-miller-meeks-online-gambling-good-samaritan/7103553002/ (“Gambling, once illegal in Iowa, is now online. TV commercials encourage record-breaking sports betting. As a former sports law professor, gambling’s impact on the integrity of collegiate and professional sports concerns me. More concerning, Tom Coates (Des Moines Consumer Credit) believes the odds are good that Iowa will see more bankruptcies, suicides, divorces and other fallout due to the spike in sports wagering.”)

“Statistics,” Lake-Geauga Recovery Centers, https://www.lgrc.us/problem-gambling-prevention-2/statistics/ (“Approximately 2 million Americans are addicted to gambling with another 6-8 million Americans experiencing life problems directly related to their gambling.”)

Marsha Mercer, “As Sports Betting Grows, States Tackle Teenage Problem Gambling,” PEW, July 12, 2022, https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/blogs/stateline/2022/07/12/as-sports-betting-grows-states-tackle-teenage-problem-gambling (“We believe that the risks for gambling addiction overall have grown 30% from 2018 to 2021, with the risk concentrated among young males 18 to 24 who are sports bettors,’ said Keith Whyte, the council’s executive director, in an interview. … The percentage of high school students with a gambling problem is double that of adults, research has found. About 5% of all young people between 11 and 17 meet at least one of the criteria for a gambling problem….”)

Gambling and college athletics.

Tom Witosky, “U of I to review sports-gambling links; Car-giveaway ad spotlights whether schools should promote state lottery, take casino sponsorship dollars,” Des Moines Register, Feb. 8, 2007, https://www.nicholasjohnson.org/BlogStuf/regents/twdr0208.html

Deep Throat.

“All the President’s Men,” 1976, https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0074119/

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