Rethinking Electric Vehicles

NEW UPDATE! April 19, 2021. A reader of The Gazette submitted a Letter to the Editor, published April 17, responding to this column. The full text of that Letter, along with Nicholas Johnson's reply, are reproduced below at "Gazette Reader's Response/Letter and My Reply"

Rethinking The Rush Toward Electric Vehicles

Nicholas Johnson
The Gazette, April 11, 2021, p. D3
The Gazette Online, April 9, 2021 1:14 pm Updated: Apr. 9, 2021 1:16 pm
My first car was a 1928 Ford Model A roadster. Its roof had been removed, and the body revealed years in a cornfield. Price: $25, but worth it.

In college I saved up and traded up: a $75 four-door Model A.

It’s not a manly confession, but I’m not a car guy. Never built a hot rod. Like Barbra Streisand’s “Second Hand Rose” with her second hand clothes, “I never had a car that wasn’t used.”

Then I heard about electric vehicles (EVs). Drove one over city streets and highways. Loved it. So cool. Smooth ride, silent, saving the environment with every mile. Amazing. [Photo credit: Wikipedia, Tesla Model X, from $79,990 (Plaid configuration, $119,990); I drove a Nissan Leaf, from $31,670]

Until I made the mistake, from the dealer’s perspective, of researching and thinking.

Two questions: 1) Should you buy an EV? 2) Should President Joe Biden spend $174 billion on their promotion — including 500,000 charging stations?

My conclusion on the first? As some Facebook users describe their relationship, “it’s complicated.”

Do you not have to ask the price? (“If you have to ask, you can’t afford it.”) Do you have exclusive access to a charging station, or a garage where you can put one? Do you already have a second, conventional car? Would you or your partner only use the EV for errands around town, or commuting distances for which daily, overnight home charging is adequate? To avoid merely substituting coal-generated electricity for petroleum, do you live in one of the most renewable-energy-sourced electricity states? Do you consider the fun of driving an EV a part of their value?

If you can answer “yes” to all those questions an EV may make sense. Whatever you answered, extensive Googling may change your mind.

Mileage and charging times are challenging. Every hour of charging with 120-volts creates power to drive two-to-five miles (96 miles per 24-hour charge). Compare that with three minutes to “fill ‘er up” with gasoline on cross-country trips.

The second question’s answers depend on the goal: a) All Americans using EVs for all driving? b) Benefits from most practical uses of EVs? c) Transportation systems moving humans at lowest possible cost and environmental impact?

The challenges with (a) are suggested in the six questions above. If (b), fleet use (Post Office; UPS) makes the most sense. Amazon has plans to order 100,000 EVs for deliveries. Each vehicle with its own parking space, charging station and enough overnight charge to last through the next day.

(c) But if the goal is moving humans, there are more efficient and environmentally friendly alternatives to filling roads with EV vehicles.

Work from home (as many now do). Office buildings and housing within walking or biking distance. Multiples more public transportation — subways, surface trains, EV buses. Incentives for trading in gas guzzlers.

Friends in a small Swiss town benefit from a sufficiently extensive national rail network, plus buses, to travel efficiently without owning a car — as my sister does in Manhattan.

EVs are now 1 percent of all vehicles. Their future? It’s complicated.

Nicholas Johnson, Iowa City, worked on transportation policy as U.S. Maritime Administrator. mailbox@nicholasjohnson.org

SOURCES
Second Hand Rose - lyrics - https://tinyurl.com/ns6z7an9

Biden’s $174B & 500,000 chargers - Niraj Chokshi, “Biden’s Push for Electric Cars: $174 Billion, 10 Years and a Bit of Luck,” New York Times, April 1, 2021, p. B1, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/31/business/biden-electric-vehicles-infrastructure.html (“[Biden] hopes to build half a million chargers by 2030”)

Electricity generation; coal vs. renewable energy; states – Nadja Popovich and Brad Plumer, “How Does Your State Make Electricity?” New York Times, Oct. 28, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/10/28/climate/how-electricity-generation-changed-in-your-state-election.html; U.S. Department of Energy, “Alternative Fuels Data Center,” https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_production.html

Charging times & chargers cost – “How Much Does It Cost to Install an Electric Vehicle Charging Station at Home?”, fixr, https://www.fixr.com/costs/home-electric-vehicle-charging-station (“Essentially, a Level 1 charger adds roughly 2 to 5 miles of driving range to your car for every hour you charge it.” “Average cost: Level 2 charger with a 240-volt outlet and wall mounting $1200, high cost $4500”)

Marci Houghtlen, “How Much Does a Tesla Home Charger Cost?” MotorBiscuit, January 24, 2021, https://www.motorbiscuit.com/how-much-does-a-tesla-home-charger-cost/ (cost of Tesla EVs, home chargers)

Good video discussion: “5 Reasons You Should (Not) But an Electric Car,” Oct. 7, 2020, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5gCXv0XTOi0

Dave Vanderwerp, “EV Range: Everything You Need to Know; We explain EPA ratings, factors that affect range, how EVs have performed in our testing, and why it's all very complicated,” Car and Driver, May 22, 2020, https://www.caranddriver.com/shopping-advice/a32603216/ev-range-explained/

Gasoline fill-up time – “Gasoline pump,” Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gasoline_pump#Design (“Light passenger vehicle pump up to about 50 litres (13 US gallons) per minute[4] (the United States limits this to 10 US gallons [38 litres] per minute[5]); pumps serving trucks and other large vehicles have a higher flow rate, up to 130 litres (34 US gallons) per minute in the UK[4] and 40 US gallons (150 litres) in the US. This flow rate is based on the diameter of the vehicle's fuel filling pipe, which limits flow to these amounts.”)

Amazon 100,000 EVs - Mary Meisenzahl, “Amazon's first electric delivery vans are now making deliveries — see how they were designed,” Business Insider, Feb. 3, 2021, https://www.yahoo.com/news/amazon-creating-futuristic-fleet-100-205745513.html (“In October, Amazon showed off the first of its planned custom electric delivery vehicles, with plans to have 10,000 on the road by 2022, and 100,000 by 2030.”)

Non-EV alternatives - Brad Plumer, Nadja Popovich and Blacki Migliozzi, “Electric Cars Are Coming. How Long Until They Rule the Road?” New York Times, March 10, 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/03/10/climate/electric-vehicle-fleet-turnover.html (“policies to buy back and scrap older, less efficient cars . . . expanding public transit or encouraging biking and walking, so that existing vehicles are driven less often.”)

EVs 1% of vehicles - Niraj Chokshi, “Biden’s Push for Electric Cars: $174 Billion, 10 Years and a Bit of Luck,” New York Times, April 1, 2021, p. B1, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/31/business/biden-electric-vehicles-infrastructure.html (“electric vehicles remain a niche product, making up just 2 percent of the new car market and 1 percent of all cars, sport-utility vehicles, vans and pickup trucks on the road.”)

Neal E. Boudette and Coral Davenport, "G.M. Will Sell Only Zero-Emission Vehicles by 2035," New York Times, Jan. 29, 2021, p. A1; Jan. 28, 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/28/business/gm-zero-emission-vehicles.html ("General Motors said Thursday [Jan 28, 2021] that it would phase out petroleum-powered cars and trucks and sell only vehicles that have zero tailpipe emissions by 2035....")

Gazette Reader's Response/Letter and My Reply

Improving Tech Makes Electric Vehicles a Viable Option
Florence Williams
The Gazette, April 17, 2021, p. A6
The Gazette Online April 16, 2021]
Nicholas Johnson listed considerations one should ponder before purchasing an electric vehicle in his April 11 guest column. However, I found his points rather misleading.

I own a Tesla Model 3 with extended range. I have driven my Tesla to Detroit and back without any range anxiety. Instead of comparing stopping at a gas station to plugging into a 120V plug, which is a standard outlet in your home and only relevant for overnight charging, we should be comparing gas stations to stopping at a supercharger station, which are common at Hy-Vee and Casey’s along major highways. I drive three hours before needing to charge, then it takes me 20 to 40 minutes to charge at a V2 supercharger (V3 are faster, but not common yet). Importantly, you don’t have to stand there waiting with your hand on the nozzle — the car locks the charger in place and you can do as you like. By this three hour point, I usually want a bite to eat or a coffee, so 30 minutes is perfect. Tesla chargers are the gold standard, but this is where all EVs are heading and why there’s so much talk of investing in a high-powered charging network in the US.

Another point, as Mr. Johnson puts it “Do you live in one of the most renewable energy-sourced electricity states?” In Iowa we are 50 percent wind energy, and that number is growing.

Florence Williams

Iowa City
__________
My Response to Florence Williams
Nicholas Johnson
April 19, 2021
First off, thank you Ms. Williams. Like most writers, it's almost always a satisfaction for me to have evidence that someone actually read what I've written. When the response involves the reader making the time and effort to respond in writing, and keeps the language civil (as she clearly has), either with an email or, in this case, with a letter to the editor, that's just all the better.

Second, I don't really take issue with any of the facts she reports regarding her own experience with her Tesla 3. How could I?

Third, I can understand why she might have felt my example of home charging -- in the necessarily truncated discussion of the range of charging problems with EVs in a 500-word column -- was incomplete, or even misleading. I would hope in the context of the entire column (and the "six questions") the reader would understand that all issues regarding EVs depend on who is using the vehicle, where, and for what. As I concluded the piece, "It's complicated."

This specific aside, I do take exception to her assertion, "I found his points rather misleading." Did she really mean to say that all the points made in the column were "misleading"? If so, she needs somewhat more support for that charge. If not, she probably shouldn't have phrased it that way. I'm certainly not opposed to all uses of EVs in all circumstances; quite the contrary. I just think every potential customer needs to do some due diligence regarding an EVs practicality for them.

With the availability of more words than the column permitted, I'll add a few additional details.

As the manufacturers' enthusiasm for EVs, as well as that of EV fans like Florence Williams, reveals -- and my column endeavored to make clear -- there are many Americans for whom EVs make a lot of sense. The consumer's challenge is researching the facts (many suggested by the "six questions") to discover whether their situation and potential uses make them one of those "many Americans."

Central are issues related to charging (time involved, availability of charging stations, how much of a full charge to use) and range.

Take Ms. Williams' example. It is 487 miles from Iowa City to Detroit (7 hours 12 minutes at 69 mph). Tesla says its Tesla 3 can go 353 miles (263 to 353) on a full charge ("Long Range" model, $47,690. Drew Dorian and Joey Capparella, "2021 Tesla Model 3".) But many experts and writers say it's best to hold the charge between 20% and 80% of a full charge -- which would bring the range down to 60% of 353 or 212 miles. (See, e.g., "Charging the battery to only 80% and discharging to 20%, as is typically done on a new EV battery, only utilizes 60% of the capacity." "Battery Aging in an Electric Vehicle (EV); Stretching battery life to the maximum," Battery University, August 22, 2020; "10 Tips to Extend the Life of Your EV Battery," Clipper Creek, March 1, 2018.) Ms. Williams says she recharges after three hours; at 70 mph, and accepting the manufacturer's 212 miles, that would be three hours.

There are many variables when it comes to range: which EV; manufacturers' specs; your speed; flat vs. mountains; temperature (cold can reduce it by a third); age of the battery (the range declines as the battery ages); running the heater or air conditioning.

e.g., "Winter is also unkind to EV range. In 30-degree Detroit temps, my tester got just 65 percent of predicted battery range . . .. Range anxiety is a serious problem for EVs -- especially for the average Chevy customer who uses their steed as primary tranasportation. . . . You see the holes in this idea that everyone will buy electric in 15 years. I'm not buying it. More likely the folks buying the Bolt EV/EUV will be niche customers who . . . only use the EV for daily commutes." Henry Payne, "Second-Gen Chevy Bolt EV Is A Treat; Pity It Isn't a Caddy," Detroit News, March 3, 2021

Another variable is charging speed. A 220V line will charge faster than a 120V. Ms. Williams mentions a Tesla "V2 supercharger" with a "V3" on the way. The question is: What is the optimal charging power and speed when battery life is considered? See, e.g. "Fast-charging can damage electric car batteries in just 25 cycles," Professional Engineering, Institution of Mechanical Engineering, March 12, 2020; Emmanouil D.Kostopoulosa, George C.Spyropoulosab, John K.Kaldellisa, "Real-world study for the optimal charging of electric vehicles," Energy Reports, vol. 6, pp. 418-426, Nov. 2020. Volume 6, November 2020, Pages 418-426

In other words, if you are driving a Tesla, because you can afford the near-$50,000 price tag, your out-of-town travel only requires one recharge before your destination, does not normally occur during cold winter days, involves a route plentifully supplied with Tesla charging stations, and you're willing to do some (if any) damage to your EV battery from fast charges, Ms. Williams experience suggests one more instance in which an EV can do the job.

There are many other situations where an EV makes sense, as I suggested with organizations' fleets of EVs, and individuals local shopping and commuting -- if overnight charging is both always feasible and adequate.

The fact remains, as I concluded the column, that for any given individual, balancing all the questions and issues surrounding EV purchases, while it may be possible, still "It's complicated."

# # #

Should You Buy an Electric Car?

Random Thoughts on Electric Cars

"Tesla unveiled its new Model 3 sedans, starting at $35,000, in a ceremony on Friday night [July 28] on the grounds of its sprawling assembly plant and research facility outside San Francisco.

-- Bill Vlasic, "In Pivotal Moment, Tesla Unveils Its First Mass-Market Sedan," New York Times, July 30, 2017, p. A1

Reading the Times story about Tesla's ceremony and first "sale" (to employees) of 30 Tesla Model 3 electric cars, my thoughts accelerated back to my first experience driving an electric car a couple years ago. [Photo credit: Tesla Motors.]

It wasn't a Tesla. It was a Nissan Leaf. I wanted to experience driving an electric car more than I wanted to buy one -- although that was both a possibility and the dealer's wish.

It was a very nice driving experience. There was no reason not to have one because of that drive.

Ultimately, analysis led me to conclude that although it might make no sense for my wife and me, I could imagine people for whom an electric car could be a wise purchase.

Meanwhile, here are some other random thoughts as well.

Environmental impact. Face it, the only forms of transportation that come close to environmental purity would be: walking, bicycling, horseback riding, moving through the air in a glider, or over water with a sailboat.

The operation of an all-electric vehicle may have substantially less adverse environmental impact than operating an internal combustion engine. But if the electricity came from a coal-fired power plant, and a lot of electricity was lost while in transit to your community, the difference is less dramatic.

Then there's the batteries -- a lot of batteries -- the China-controlled rare earth elements it takes to make them, and what happens to them in landfills when they need be replaced. ("Most electric car batteries use lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide (NMC) cathodes and graphite anodes. 'Rare earth' metals dysprosium, neodymium and terbium, chiefly mined in China . . . are used in some electronic components of the motor." The Electric Car Revolution Is Making These Investors Very Optimistic," Reuters/Fortune, October 4, 2016.)

Convenience. However wonderful the act of driving an electric car may be, there are limits to how far and where you can drive one.

Gasoline filing stations are everywhere -- except in the dead of night in sparsely populated areas of the country. Charging stations for electric cars are not (yet) as available.

At this time, few would want to set off on a cross-country trip in an electric. Even with a probable range "up to" (as the cable companies say about megabits per second) 100 to 200 miles (depending on the make/model), to avoid being stranded without a sufficient charge you would want to allow margins of error when starting out on more than short trips around town.

And instead of filling your tank with gas every week or so, building a home charging station, and going through the routine of starting the charging process every night, would approximate the ever-present obligation of a dairy farmer to milk the cows every evening.

Buy or lease? For me, cars are just transportation, not collectors' items or bragging rights. As long as a car is reliable and safe, I've never cared how old it was or what it looked like. So I've never before calculated the comparative benefits of buying or leasing new cars.

But when considering the Leaf, my initial analysis was that leasing would make the most sense.

Why? Internal combustion engines, properly maintained and worked on, can operate for 250,000 miles or more. There are ways to extend (or curtail) the life of batteries, but they will need to be replaced at some point -- life and price data are not yet definitive, but five years and $5000 might be examples. "[B]attery replacement costs is one of three key considerations why 57 percent of Americans cited in a USA Today/Gallup Poll say they wouldn’t buy an EV." Jim Motavalli, "Replacing EV Batterries: Your Costs Will Vary," PlugInCars.com, June 19, 2012.

Of course, that was five years ago. The technology, and pricing, are still evolving.

It's hard to compare the cost of buying with leasing because there are so many variables. But the financial differences are usually not wildly dramatic.

Bottom line: leasing means you'll always have the latest of the rapidly evolving technology, have some additional guarantees and servicing from the dealer, and never need to spend thousands of dollars on a fresh set of batteries.

Borrowing from the TV pharmaceutical commercials,"Ask your doctor if an electric car might be right for you." So what made me decide to forgo the fun of leasing an electric car?

(1) Little or no need for any car. My wife and I are retired and live in Iowa City, Iowa -- which I sometimes refer to as a "toy town." The law school is a three-or-four-block walk from home. One of the nation's largest research hospitals is closer still. The Big-10 football in Kinnick Stadium is one block further. The dental school maybe three blocks beyond that. Going "to town" is almost exactly one mile, a 15 or 20-minute walk (often quicker than the total time, including parking, to use a car). I mostly get around by bicycle and walking. We already have one car each that mostly sit in the driveway, both old and purchased used.

(2) Need for internal combustion car. We would still need a car capable of distances beyond the range of an electric -- not only for cross-country trips, but for much of our travel within the state, or for two-day trips to places without charging stations.

(3) In order for the lease to make any kind of economic sense for us it would need to be driven distances as close as possible to the maximum permitted under the lease agreement (before there are additional per-mile charges). I was not sure that even using it for all of our around-town driving would come anywhere close to that.

"You began by saying, 'I could imagine people for whom an electric car could be a wise purchase.' So, whom might they be?"

I'm not thinking of those who say, "If you have to ask the price you can't afford it;" the people for whom "money is no object." They can buy any electric they want, regardless of how much they use it, run around in it for six weeks or six months, or until their name comes up on Tesla's backlog list of 500,000 potential buyers who've paid $1000 each to stand in line -- at which point they can give the first electric car to one of their kids.

No, here's who I had in mind. A young couple, with or without kids, both of whom have steady jobs that require daily commutes. They are wealthy enough to buy new cars, but not wealthy enough to consider a $100,000 Tesla.

One of those commutes is, say, 60 miles a day (round trip), or other distance well within the car's range on a full charge (so as to avoid any risk of being stranded). If that was not enough to approach the maximum allowed mileage under the lease, the electric could also be the car of choice for any running around town.

The closer the leased electric could get to that maximum mileage the more economic sense it would make to have the car. (Of course, like most electrics owners, they would need to build a charging station in their garage and remember to charge the car every evening.)

Their other car, new or used, could be a fuel efficient gasoline car. It would be used for the other partner's daily commute, any cross-country (or local) trips beyond the range of the electric, and for local errands once the electric had reached its budgeted monthly mileage.

And that's what I think about electric cars.

# # #