Gazette: "Is Faster Safer?"

The Gazette has an editorial this morning (July 19) about highway speeds that got me thinking about a number of things -- other than speed limits. Editorial, "Is Faster Safer?" The Gazette, July 19, 2006.

1. Because it seems (to me) intuitive that higher speeds would correlate with more accidents, I've kind of bought into that assertion without questioning it. (As I mostly walk and bike, and only put about 500 miles a year on my vehicle, none of this affects me very much personally -- either the danger or the desire to drive faster.)

On the assumption their numbers are right, the Gazette's editorial offers some interesting perspectives on my "intuitive conclusion":

"Alcohol was involved in nearly 40 percent of fatal accidents in 2005, and 56 percent of those killed in vehicle accidents were not wearing seat belts. . . . 80 percent of accidents (fatal and non-fatal) involved a driver who was drowsy, using a cell phone, applying makeup, distracted by children or otherwise not fully concentrating on the job at hand."

2. I don't cite this (for now) to argue one way or another about the impact of speed limits on accidents, but rather to raise some issues about arguing about the impact of speed.

There would be very little public policy discussion throughout the day if we had to have readily at hand all the relevant most current data and the sources from which it was obtained. We cannot do thorough research prior to every occasion we are about to engage someone in discussion of an issue.

But it is perhaps useful, for those interested in maintaining civility of discourse (and, in the process, friendships as well) to be mindful of the possibility that there are relevant data of which we are unaware -- such as the facts the Gazette brought to my attention this morning.

We need to ask ourselves, as well as those with whom we are talking, what general semanticists consider two very basic questions: "What do you mean?" and "How do you know?" We need to recognize that what produces the language we use is an electro-chemical process inside our skull -- not something outside. We need to more often utilize qualifiers, such as: "to me," "I'm not familiar with the research or data, but intuitively one would think," "I'm basing my opinion on one anecdotal experience I had; I know that's not statistically significant," "there may be a lot of facts here of which I am unaware, but . . .," etc.

I'm reminded of a comment attributed to Aristotle. A group of men were debating how many teeth a horse has. The debate was growing quite hot. Aristotle brought it to a halt with the suggestion, "Why don't we go find a horse and count them?" One of my favorite former school superintendents had a large sign on his wall, "In God we trust . . . all others please bring data." (I think Aristotle gave it to him.)

3. To return but briefly to the presentation in the editorial, are the statistics it cites dispositive of the issue? I don't think so (nor did the editorial writer). The answer (to whether we should have increased speed limits) does not require a choice between "inattentiveness" or "speed."

(a) There will probably always be a proportion of drivers who are drunk, not wearing seat belts, or inattentive while driving. Isn't the issue then whether they have more (and more serious) accidents at 75-80 mph than at 55-60 -- not whether "the cause" of the accident was "speed or inattentiveness"?

(b) Similarly, even sober, belted, and attentive professional drivers (e.g., NASCAR and semi-truck drivers) have accidents. There can be mechanical failures, or unforeseeable hazards created by others. The time and distance it takes to stop a moving object is in part a function of speed. Again, the researchable question might be whether even these skilled drivers have more, and more serious, accidents as their speed increases.

(c) There are at least two questions here. (1) Are there more accidents at higher speed (regardless of the skill of the driver)? And (2) Are there more serious accidents at higher speed (regardless of the skill of the driver)? The first is the issue the editorial addresses. On the second, intuitively and without data, I would think principles of physics would suggest that the higher the speed the greater the force of the impact and, therefore, probably the greater the potential damage to vehicle and driver.

4. Finally, the Gazette's added data raises a more general observation. Many -- possibly most -- of the problems any individual confronts are problems of their own making.

Consider health. How much could one improve an individual's -- or a nation's -- health if we'd follow the apparently well-documented suggestions provided us by every source from our mothers to the daily newspapers: regular exercise, weight control, proper nutrition, adequate sleep, lots of water, elimination of tobacco, minimal amounts of alcohol, treatment of addictive behaviors -- including the suggestions from the Gazette's data regarding driving (don't drive drunk, wear a seatbelt, be attentive to driving)?

(Indeed, reliance on medical treatments can be a part of the problem. It even has a name: "iatrogenic disease" -- medical conditions brought on by a doctor's treatment or a hospital stay. One study -- I believe of a hospital in Boston -- concluded that 30% of the patients there were suffering from iatrogenic disease.

My doctor says that about half the time (but note, not always) you'll recover from most conditions without any medical treatment at all. If roughly one-third of the time you to go to a hospital you'll end up worse, with some iatrogenic disease in addition to your original condition, my math suggests you have only one chance in six that medical treatment is actually going to make you better.

This is just one more reason to keep yourself healthy and avoid the need for medical treatment.)

How many financial problems, regardless of income -- and up to and including bankruptcy -- could be prevented (or at least reduced) by using some very basic tools of accounting, controlling impulse buying, and reading Consumer Reports?

Walt Kelly's Pogo had it right: "We have found the enemy, and he is us."