Dems Presidential Primary - Polls July 11, 2019

11 Between 1% and 26%; 10 Never Over 1%; Top 6 in Iowa
Iowa's Top 6; Poll June 29-July 4, 2019
Buttigieg 25%
Warren 18%
Sanders 16%
Biden 16%
Harris 16%
O'Rourke 2%
All others 0-1%

National Results

[Source: Wikimedia.org; graphic display of data from 2008 election]

10 candidates with poll numbers 0%-1%; All Polls June 1-July 9
[In addition, for all but Gillibrand and Delaney these candidates have been in the 0% to 1% range in every poll since November 2018.]
Bennet, Bullock, De Blasio, Delaney, Gillibrand, Hickenlooper, Inslee, Moulton, Ryan, Williamson

11 candidates with poll numbers above 1%; their range for July

Biden 18-31%
Sanders 10-23%
Warren 9-22%
Harris 10-21%
Buttigieg 3-10%
O'Rourke 2-4%
Castro 0-4%
Yang 0-3%
Booker 0-2%
Klobuchar 0-2%
Gabbard 0-2%

11 candidates with poll numbers above 1%; average (mean) of last three polls

Biden 26%
Warren 17%
Harris 14%
Sanders 13%
Buttigieg 5.7%
O'Rourke 2.7%
Yang 2%
Gabbard 1.3%
Booker 1.3%
Klobuchar 1%
Castro 1%

Getting into the weeds of the NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll

Later in the day, after this blog was posted, the results of a new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll were released. Its biggest contribution was not the predictable revelation that Biden, Warren, Harris, Sanders and Buttigieg still lead the pack.

It was the details -- such as the data indicating 82% of primary voters are "very" or "somewhat" closely following the candidates; only 12% of Democratic voters say they have "definately" made up their minds; and their answer to "Who is your second choice?" The answers? Harris (14%), Warren (13%), Sanders (12%) and Biden (10%).

The poll also dug into how voters' candidate preference varied between those "who want large-scale change" (Warren, 29%; Sanders, 18%; Biden, 16%; and Harris, 14%), those "who want small-scale change" (Biden, 35%; Harris, 14%; Buttigieg, 8%; and Sanders, 7%), those who think issues most important (51%; Biden, 18%; Warren, 18%; Sanders, 17%; and Harris, 11%), those who think defeating Trump is most important (45%; Biden, 34%; Warren, 21%; Harris, 16%; Buttigieg, 8%; and Sanders, 6%).

Commentary (1) There's still time. The fact your candidate hasn't yet become the flavor of the month doesn't mean it can't happen. If past primaries and elections are any guide there will continue to be a lot of changes in the rankings between now and the Iowa caucuses in February 2020. Note the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll finding, immediately above, that only 12% of primary voters have now settled on whom they're supporting.

(2) Polls vary widely depending upon such things as the quality and reputation of the polling firm, the number of people polled, the way questions are framed, recent news coverage of the candidates and related events, and how closely the public is following the process.

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