Didn't Know the Territory

We Didn't Know the Territory
Nicholas Johnson
The Gazette, November 7, 2023, p. A6
In the movie version of Iowa’s best-known musical, “The Music Man,” the opening scene is a Rock Island Railroad passenger car filled with over a dozen salesmen bouncing down the tracks to River City, Iowa, convinced that Harold Hill “doesn’t know the territory.”

That was the passenger train I took from Iowa City to high school organizations’ meetings in Des Moines or Chicago. During the 1950s I could ride the “Katy” line directly to Austin, Texas, and back.

From the time the first train reached Iowa City on January 3, 1856, to the first American locomotive to exceed 100 mph in 1893, and our country’s 254,000 miles of track by 1916, trains were once Americans’ first choice for travel.

That enthusiasm continues today in over 20 countries. Their passenger trains go 124 to 221 miles per hour, starting with Japan’s “bullet train” I rode in the 1960s, up to the world’s record 357 mph French TGV on April 3, 2007. Going from city center to city center, avoiding the time and frustration of going to, through, and from airports, high speed rail is cheaper and almost as fast as flying. (Photo credit: Wikimedia.commons' photo of French TGV.)

In 1994 a group of eminent scientists warned China that relying on cars and highways was a mistake, citing the loss of cropland for feeding its people. They recommended instead rail, buses and bicycles – with the added benefits of improving climate change, air pollution, crowded highways, and transportation for those who can’t afford cars.

Today China has two-thirds of the world’s high-speed railroads.

And what do we have?

With 278 million vehicles travelling over four million miles of highways, filling up at 145,000 gas stations, using 40 million acres of farmland for roads and parking lots, we’ve created one of the biggest road networks of any country – and the primary cause of climate change.

How could Americans get so far off-track? Like some Facebook users characterize their relationship, “it’s complicated.”

In the 1920s capitalists saw the potential profits from car sales. Americans sought the prestige of the latest technology: car ownership. Teenagers sought the freedom they provided. Politicians liked the contributions and votes from government highway construction. And few cared when GM tore up the tracks in Los Angeles and opened car dealerships – ignoring the transportation needs of those who couldn’t afford cars.

Americans, once in love with passenger rail, had found a shinier new lover.

To travel America today everyone must, in effect, buy, drive and care for their own locomotive. In some congested areas cars move slower -- and at far greater cost -- than the horse and buggy they replaced. Only 20 percent of Americans can afford new cars, at $50,000. What’s your time driving worth? Add the costs of fuel; tolls, licenses and taxes; insurance; maintenance and repairs; home garages and parking elsewhere and, as attributed to the late Senator Dirksen, “You’re talking real money.”

How did it happen? Maybe we just “didn’t know the territory.”

Nicholas Johnson, logging thousands of bicycle miles, never bought a new car. Contact mailbox@nicholasjohnson.org

SOURCES After posting this column and "sources" the following movie/documentary was brought to my attention. If you are interested in this subject I highly recommend your watching it: "Taken for a Ride - The U.S. History of the Assault on Public Transport in the Last Century," New Day Films, 1996, 56:24,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p-I8GDklsN4

“The Music Man” (Broadway; and movie).

“The Music Man,” Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Music_Man (“In the early summer of 1912, aboard a train leaving Rock Island, Illinois,[34] Charlie Cowell and other traveling salesmen debate whether modern conveniences are making their profession more difficult.”)

“The Music Man (1962 film),” Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Music_Man_(1962_film)

Music Man opening scene; salesmen on train; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JZ9U4Cbb4wg

Rock Island Railroad.

“Chicago, Rock Island and Pacific Railroad,” Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicago%2C_Rock_Island_and_Pacific_Railroad (“The Chicago, Rock Island and Pacific Railroad . . . was also known as the Rock Island Line . . .. At the end of 1970, it operated 7,183 miles of road on 10,669 miles of track [and]] 20,557 million ton-miles of revenue freight and 118 million passenger miles. . . . The song "Rock Island Line", a spiritual from the late 1920s first recorded in 1934, was inspired by the railway. . . . Its predecessor, the Rock Island and La Salle Railroad Company, was incorporated in Illinois on February 27, 1847, and an amended charter was approved on February 7, 1851, as the Chicago and Rock Island Railroad. Construction began in Chicago on October 1, 1851, and the first train was operated on October 10, 1852, between Chicago and Joliet. Construction continued on through La Salle, and Rock Island was reached on February 22, 1854, becoming the first railroad to connect Chicago with the Mississippi River. . . . The railroad retired its last steam locomotive from service in 1953.”)

Trips to Des Moines and Chicago.

There are no “sources” for these trips beyond memories left a few left over neurons.

“Katy” Railroad.

“Missouri-Kansas-Texas Railroad,” Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Missouri%E2%80%93Kansas%E2%80%93Texas_Railroad, (“ Established in 1865 under the name Union Pacific Railroad (UP), Southern Branch, it came to serve an extensive rail network in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Missouri. In 1988, it merged with the Missouri Pacific Railroad; today, it is part of UP.

In the 1890s, the MKT was commonly referred to as "the K-T", because for a time it was the Kansas-Texas division of the Missouri Pacific Railroad and "KT" was its abbreviation in timetables as well as its stock exchange symbol. This soon evolved into the nickname "the Katy".[1]

The Katy was the first railroad to enter Texas from the north.”)

Train reached Iowa City January 3, 1856.

Herbert L. Moeller and Hugh C. Mueller, “Building a Great Railroad System,” “Our Iowa, Its Beginning and Growth” (1938), Iowa History; An IAGenWeb Special Project, https://iagenweb.org/history/history/oibg/RR.htm (“Iowa’s First Railroad The first railroad built in Iowa ran westward from Davenport to Iowa City, then the capital of Iowa. . . . The first train pulled into Muscatine from Davenport in November, 1855, and a great celebration was held. Two towns twenty-five miles apart were now connected by rail!

In order to get the railroad completed to Iowa City by January 1, 1856, many people who lived in that city helped the workmen. Huge bonfires were built to keep the men warm and to furnish light to work by at night. The first train arrived in Iowa City on the afternoon of January 3, 1856.”)

Locomotive going over 100 mph.

Association of American Railroads, “Chronology of America’s Freight Railroads,” https://www.aar.org/chronology-of-americas-freight-railroads/ (“On May 10, [1893] Locomotive No. 999 of the New York Central hits 112.5 miles per hour between Batavia and Buffalo, New York — the first time a train exceeds 100 miles per hour.”) [Batavia to Buffalo is 41 miles]; https://www.trippy.com/distance/Buffalo-to-Batavia-NY ]

“High-Speed Rail Train,” Britannica, Oct. 9, 2023, https://www.britannica.com/technology/high-speed-rail (“High-speed rail (HSR), passenger train that generally travels at least 200 km (124 miles) per hour and can cruise up to 355 km (221 miles) per hour, though some have reached higher speeds. More than 20 countries, largely in Asia and Europe, have high-speed rail networks. Transportation researchers have found that traveling via high-speed rail in Asia and Europe is a competitive alternative to flying for trips up to about 1,000 km (620 miles).

History The first high-speed rail was Japan’s 515-km (320-mile) Shinkansen line connecting Tokyo and Ōsaka, inaugurated in advance of the 1964 Summer Olympics. Its inauguration was greeted by widespread international acclaim, and the Shinkansen was quickly dubbed the “bullet train” for the great speed the trains obtained and for the aerodynamic bullet shape of their noses. Many innovations, such as the use of prestressed concrete ties and 1.6-km- (1-mile-) long welded sections of track, were introduced in the line’s construction.”)

254,000 miles of track in 1916.

“The Golden Age of American Railroading,” University of Iowa Libraries, August 1989, https://www.lib.uiowa.edu/exhibits/previous/railroad/ (“Trackage increased from 35,000 miles in 1865 to 254,000 miles in 1916, the eve of America’s entry into World War I. The first transcontinental railroad was finished on May 10, 1869, when the Union Pacific met the Central Pacific at Promontory in Utah Territory.”)

Iowa rail mileage. Adam Burns, “State Mileage Chart,” “Iowa Railroads In ‘The Hawkeye State,’” Oct. 11, 2023, https://www.american-rails.com/ia.html (1920 9,808 miles; “today” (2017, 3834 miles)

Americans liked passenger rail travel.

“Trains: A History,” Institute for Transportation, Iowa State University, Aug. 16, 2016, https://intrans.iastate.edu/news/trains-a-history/ (“Trains served as the most important mode of transportation during a period of time called “The Golden Age” of railroads, which lasted from the 1880s until the 1920s.”

“Passenger Train,” Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passenger_train (“Travel by passenger trains in the United States began in the 1830s and became popular in the 1850s and '60s.“)

Iowa Plans for Passenger Rail.

Although there is nothing in the column about Iowa plans for passenger railroads, and little likelihood of any plans coming to fruition, because the talk is starting up again it seemed a good idea to at least list some of the sources for those unfulfilled Iowa plans over the years. Here’s a sample:

Grant Leo Winterer, “6 northeast Iowa counties considering passenger rail line,” IPR, News of the Day, Oct. 25, 2023, https://www.iowapublicradio.org/live-updates/news-of-the-day?utm_source=Newsletters&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=IPR_Daily_Digest&utm_source=Daily+Digest+Newsletter&utm_campaign=10c91865b0-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2023_10_27_03_50_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_-891edfcec1-%5BLIST_EMAIL_ID%5D&mc_cid=10c91865b0&mc_eid=75556320f8#6-northeast-iowa-counties-considering-passenger-rail-line

“Iowa Rail,” Vision/Plan, Iowa Department of Transportation, https://iowadot.gov/iowarail/iowa-passenger-rail/vision-plans

“2021 Iowa State Rail Plan,” Iowa in Motion, Iowa Department of Transportation, https://iowadot.gov/iowainmotion/modal-plans/rail-transportation-plan (Chapters 1-6; Appendices A-F)

“Iowa Connections; Get on Board with Passenger Rail!” Iowa Department of Transportation, Office of Rail Transportation, Jan. 4, 2011, 21 pp. with graphics, https://publications.iowa.gov/16153/1/IowaConnections.pdf

“Iowa State Rail Plan,” Final Report, Nov. 2021, Iowa Publications Online, State Library of Iowa, https://publications.iowa.gov/43128/

Austin Wu, “A passenger rail station for Iowa City: So nice, they planned it thrice,” The Gazette, Dec. 7, 2022, https://www.thegazette.com/staff-columnists/a-passenger-rail-station-for-iowa-city-so-nice-they-planned-it-thrice/

“Chicago to Iowa City Intercity Passenger Rail Service Project; Finding of No Significant Impact,” Federal Railroad Administration, https://railroads.dot.gov/sites/fra.dot.gov/files/fra_net/261/Chicago_to_Iowa_City_FONSI_11_16_2011.pdf

20 countries with high speed rail.

“High-Speed Rail Train,” Britannica, Oct. 9, 2023, https://www.britannica.com/technology/high-speed-rail (“More than 20 countries, largely in Asia and Europe, have high-speed rail networks. Transportation researchers have found that traveling via high-speed rail in Asia and Europe is a competitive alternative to flying for trips up to about 1,000 km (620 miles).”

124-221 mph.

“High-Speed Rail Train,” Britannica, Oct. 9, 2023, https://www.britannica.com/technology/high-speed-rail (“High-speed rail (HSR), passenger train that generally travels at least 200 km (124 miles) per hour and can cruise up to 355 km (221 miles) per hour, though some have reached higher speeds. More than 20 countries, largely in Asia and Europe, have high-speed rail networks. Transportation researchers have found that traveling via high-speed rail in Asia and Europe is a competitive alternative to flying for trips up to about 1,000 km (620 miles).

“Passenger Train,” Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passenger_train (“In most cases, high-speed rail travel is time- and cost-competitive with air travel when distances do not exceed 500 to 600 km (310 to 370 mi), as airport check-in and boarding procedures can add at least two hours to the overall transit time.[14] Also, rail operating costs over these distances may be lower when the amount of jet fuel consumed by an airliner during takeoff and climbout is taken into consideration.”)

Japan “bullet train.”

“High-Speed Rail Train,” Britannica, Oct. 9, 2023, https://www.britannica.com/technology/high-speed-rail (“History The first high-speed rail was Japan’s 515-km (320-mile) Shinkansen line connecting Tokyo and Ōsaka, inaugurated in advance of the 1964 Summer Olympics. Its inauguration was greeted by widespread international acclaim, and the Shinkansen was quickly dubbed the “bullet train” for the great speed the trains obtained and for the aerodynamic bullet shape of their noses. Many innovations, such as the use of prestressed concrete ties and 1.6-km- (1-mile-) long welded sections of track, were introduced in the line’s construction.”)

French train 357 mph.

“What Are the World’s Fastest Trains?” High Speed Rail Alliance, Dec. 12, 2022, https://www.hsrail.org/blog/worlds-fastest-trains/ (“The current world speed record for a commercial train on steel wheels is held by the French TGV at 574.8 km/h (357.2 mph), achieved on 3 April 2007 on the new LGV Est. The trainset, the track and the cantenary were modified to test new designs.”)

High speed rail travel time cheaper and close to time for air travel.

“High-Speed Rail Train,” Britannica, Oct. 9, 2023, https://www.britannica.com/technology/high-speed-rail (“Transportation researchers have found that traveling via high-speed rail in Asia and Europe is a competitive alternative to flying for trips up to about 1,000 km (620 miles).”

Scientists’ warning and recommendations for China.

Lester R. Brown, “Plan B Updates; Paving the Planet: Cars and Crops Competing for Land,” Earth Policy Institute, Feb. 14, 2001, https://www.earth-policy.org/plan_b_updates/2001/alert12 (“When Beijing announced in 1994 that it planned to make the auto industry one of the growth sectors for the next few decades, a group of eminent scientists — many of them members of the National Academy of Sciences — produced a white paper challenging this decision. They identified several reasons why China should not develop a car-centered transport system, but the first was that the country did not have enough cropland both to feed its people and to provide land for the automobile.

The team of scientists recommended that instead of building an automobile infrastructure of roads and parking lots, China should concentrate on developing state-of-the-art light rail systems augmented by buses and bicycles. This strategy would not only provide mobility for far more people than a congested, auto-centered system, but it would also protect cropland.”)

China has two-thirds of world’s high speed railroads.

“High-speed rail,” Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-speed_rail (“More recent construction since the 21st century has led to China taking a leading role in high-speed rail. As of 2023, its network accounted for over two-thirds of the world's total.”)

U.S. 278 million vehicles.

Ashlee Tilford, “Car Ownership Statistics 2023,” Forbes Advisor, Oct. 5, 2023, https://www.forbes.com/advisor/car-insurance/car-ownership-statistics/ (“278,063,737 personal and commercial vehicles were registered to drivers in the U.S. in 2021. . . . 91.7% of households had at least one vehicle in 2021; 94.4% in Iowa. . . . Iowa (1,619,970) [1,619.97 per 1000 licensed drivers] ranks 5 in US . . . 22.1% of households with 3 or more; 60% households with 2, 3 or more . . . EVs & hybrids 12.3% of all new vehicle sales in 2022 (Calif 1.62% of total registration; Iowa 42, 0.12% of registered vehicles)

4 million miles of U.S. highways.

Mathilde Carlier, “Highway mileage within the United States from 1990 to 2020 (in million statute miles),” Statista, April 28, 2023, https://www.statista.com/statistics/183397/united-states-highway-mileage-since-1990 (“In 2020, the highway network in the United States had a total length of around 4.17 million statute miles. One statute mile is approximately equal to 5,280 feet. The United States has one of the most extensive road networks worldwide.”)

145,000 filing stations.

Sky Ariella, “The 10 Largest Gas Station Chains in the United States,” Zippia, April 22, 2023, https://www.zippia.com/advice/largest-gas-station-chains/ (“Largest Gas Station Chains Research Summary The largest gas station chain in the U.S. is Exxon Mobil, with a revenue of $413.68 billion and 71,100 employees. As of 2022, the US gas station industry has a market size of $138.3 billion. There are over 145,000 gas stations across the US.”)

40 million acres highways and parking lots.

"Pavement is replacing the world's croplands,” Grist, March 1, 2001, https://grist.org/article/rice/ (“Millions of acres of cropland in the industrial world have been paved over for roads and parking lots. Each U.S. car, for example, requires on average 0.18 acres of paved land for roads and parking space. For every five cars added to the U.S. fleet, an area the size of a football field is covered with asphalt.”)

U.S. one of biggest road networks.

Mathilde Carlier, “Highway mileage within the United States from 1990 to 2020 (in million statute miles),” Statista, April 28, 2023, https://www.statista.com/statistics/183397/united-states-highway-mileage-since-1990 (“In 2020, the highway network in the United States had a total length of around 4.17 million statute miles. One statute mile is approximately equal to 5,280 feet. The United States has one of the most extensive road networks worldwide.”)

Fossil-fuel vehicles major contributor to climate change.

“Measuring Vehicle Emissions: What is the Carbon Footprint?” in Stephanie Safdie, “What’s the Impact of Vehicle Emissions on the Planet?” Greenly, Sep. 20, 2023, https://greenly.earth/en-us/blog/ecology-news/vehicle-emissions-whats-the-impact-on-the-planet (“Transportation has received significant attention, because it is the sector with the single highest contribution to global warming in the US at 29%.”)

“Reduce Climate Change,” Fuel Economy.Gov, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, U.S. Department of Energy, https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/climate.shtml (“Highway vehicles release about 1.5 billion tons of greenhouse gases (GHGs) into the atmosphere each year—mostly in the form of carbon dioxide (CO2)—contributing to global climate change. Each gallon of gasoline you burn creates 20 pounds of GHG. That's roughly 5 to 9 tons of GHG each year for a typical vehicle.”)

Causes and Effects of Climate Change,” Climate Action, United Nations, https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/science/causes-effects-climate-change (“Fossil fuels – coal, oil and gas – are by far the largest contributor to global climate change, accounting for over 75 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions and nearly 90 per cent of all carbon dioxide emissions.”)

Facebook “complicated” relationships.

Holly Golightly, Question: “Why have people who set their relationship status to “It’s Complicated” on Facebook done so?” https://www.quora.com/Why-have-people-who-set-their-relationship-status-to-It-s-Complicated-on-Facebook-done-so? answer, Quora, (“This probably varies from person to person. I would imagine the most likely scenario is that the person with the “complicated” relationship still feels committed to one person, but at the same time is open to exploring other options. It could also mean a difficult situation with a third party, or even just a relationship that fails to be classified. If you really want to know, you should contact that person directly. Cheers!”)

Answer, Quora, ChatGPT, “People who set their relationship status to "It's Complicated" on Facebook may have done so for a variety of reasons. Some people may use this status to indicate that they are in a relationship that is not straightforward or easy to define, while others may use it to signal that they are currently navigating a difficult or uncertain period in their relationship. Some people may also use this status to indicate that they are involved with multiple people, or that they are not sure of their feelings towards their partner. Ultimately, the reasons for using this status are likely to vary depending on the individual and their specific situation.”

During 1920s swing from rail to automobiles.

The Age of the Automobile,” U.S. History, https://www.ushistory.org/us/46a.asp (“By 1920, there were over 8 million registrations. The 1920s saw tremendous growth in automobile ownership, with the number of registered drivers almost tripling to 23 million by the end of the decade.” “When America opted for the automobile, the nation's rails began to be neglected. As European nations were strengthening mass transit systems, individualistic Americans invested in the automobile infrastructure.”

Ford’s sales; capitalists’ profits.

“New car prices in 1939,” Antique Automobile Discussion,” April 30, 2015, https://forums.aaca.org/topic/255941-new-car-prices-in-1939/ (“Rusty Otoole, Posted April 30, 2015 (edited), “The list price of the basic Ford or Chevrolet sedan was under $700. That was what they printed in their advertising, it would probably cost a little more for shipping, dealer prep and accessories but the base price was under $700. Edited April 30, 2015 by Rusty_OToole (see edit history).”)

Factors increasing Americans desire for cars in 1920s.

“1920s Consumption,” U.S. Consumption, Khan Academy, https://www.khanacademy.org/humanities/us-history/rise-to-world-power/1920s-america/a/1920s-consumption# (“Overview For many middle-class Americans, the 1920s was a decade of unprecedented prosperity. Rising earnings generated more disposable income for the purchase of consumer goods.

Henry Ford’s advances in assembly-line efficiency created a truly affordable automobile, making car ownership a possibility for many Americans.

Advertising became as big an industry as the manufactured goods that advertisers represented, and many families relied on new forms of credit to increase their consumption levels as they strived for a new American standard of living.

The expansion of credit in the 1920s allowed for the sale of more consumer goods and put automobiles within reach of average Americans. Now individuals who could not afford to purchase a car at full price could pay for that car over time -- with interest, of course!

Once a luxury item, cars became within reach for many more consumers as automobile manufacturers began to mass produce automobiles. The most significant innovation of this era was Henry Ford’s Model T Ford, which made car ownership available to the average American.

Ford’s innovation lay in his use of mass production to manufacture automobiles. He revolutionized industrial work by perfecting the assembly line, which enabled him to lower the Model T’s price from $850 in 1908 to $300 in 1924, making car ownership a real possibility for a large share of the population. . . . By 1929, there were over 23 million automobiles on American roads.")

“46a. The Age of the Automobile,” U.S. History, https://www.ushistory.org/us/46a.asp# (“Perhaps no invention affected American everyday life in the 20th century more than the automobile. . . .

Even the federal government became involved with the Federal Highway Act of 1921. . . .

Freedom of choice encouraged many family vacations to places previously impossible. Urban dwellers had the opportunity to rediscover pristine landscapes, just as rural dwellers were able to shop in towns and cities. Teenagers gained more and more independence with driving freedom. Dating couples found a portable place to be alone as the automobile helped to facilitate relaxed sexual attitudes.”)

GM tore up tracks in LA.

“General Motors streetcar conspiracy,” Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Motors_streetcar_conspiracy# (“This suit created lingering suspicions that the defendants had in fact plotted to dismantle streetcar systems in many cities in the United States as an attempt to monopolize surface transportation. . . . At the hearings in April 1974, San Francisco mayor and antitrust attorney Joseph Alioto testified that "General Motors and the automobile industry generally exhibit a kind of monopoly evil", adding that GM "has carried on a deliberate concerted action with the oil companies and tire companies...for the purpose of destroying a vital form of competition; namely, electric rapid transit". Los Angeles mayor Tom Bradley also testified, saying that GM, through its subsidiaries (namely PCL), "scrapped the Pacific Electric and Los Angeles streetcar systems leaving the electric train system totally destroyed".[62]”)

So did Iowa.

Iowa rail mileage. Adam Burns, “State Mileage Chart,” “Iowa Railroads In ‘The Hawkeye State,’” Oct. 11, 2023, https://www.american-rails.com/ia.html (1920 9,808 miles; “today” (2017, 3834 miles)

Horse and buggy faster than cars.

Andrew Nikiforuk, “The Big Shift Last Time: From Horse Dung to Car Smog; Lessons from an earlier energy transition. Third in a series,” The Tyee, March 6, 2013, https://thetyee.ca/News/2013/03/06/Horse-Dung-Big-Shift/# (“Ironically, it didn’t take long for millions of cheap cars to clog urban thoroughfares so completely that they moved as slowly as horses.

Congested urban cities such as Vancouver even ran advertisements as early as 1959 asking, “Should we [go] back to the horse and buggy days?”

“Don’t laugh,” added the poster. Real tests show that “the average speed at which traffic moves through congested areas is less than it was during the horse and buggy days.”)

Costs of automobile transportation.

“Owning a car is a necessity for many Americans, but is the financial burden worth it in today’s market?” Intuit/Creditkarma, Dec. 7, 2021, https://www.creditkarma.com/about/commentary/owning-a-car-is-a-necessity-for-many-americans-but-is-the-financial-burden-worth-it-in-todays-market (“According to a study by Qualtrics on behalf of Credit Karma, one-third of respondents who are not car owners say they need a car but cannot afford one in today’s market. What’s more concerning is that nearly half (45%) of respondents who don’t have cars feel that not owning a car is holding them back from making financial progress (i.e. not being able to easily commute to work), while 12% say owning a car is too big of a financial obligation.”)

James Ochoa, “Why only about 22 percent of Americans can afford a new car; Sticker shock is only part of the problem for prospective buyers,” TheStreet, Oct 6, 2023, https://www.thestreet.com/automotive/why-only-about-22-percent-of-americans-can-afford-a-new-car- (“The report analyzed one’s financial ability to finance what it determined was the average new car. According to Kelly Blue Book, the average price of a brand new car in the United States is around $48,000. A common guideline about how much to spend when buying a new car is the old 20/4/10 rule, where you put at least 20% of the purchase price for a down payment, take out a 4-year loan, and spend no more than 10% of your income on said car. . . . In a comment on the state of the new car market, a former Ford executive said that “You have to make over $100,000 just to afford a new car. . . . According to data from the United States Census Bureau, only 21.6% of individuals in the United States made $100,000 a year in 2022, meaning that a new car is out of reach financially for 78.4% of the population. According to Forbes, the average salary in the United States is roughly $59,428.”)

Ashlee Tilford, “How Much Does it Cost to Own a Car?, Car Ownership Statistics 2023,” Forbes Advisor, Oct. 5, 2023, https://www.forbes.com/advisor/car-insurance/car-ownership-statistics/ (“278,063,737 personal and commercial vehicles were registered to drivers in the U.S. in 2021. . . . 91.7% of households had at least one vehicle in 2021; 94.4% in Iowa. . . . Iowa (1,619,970) [1,619.97 per 1000 licensed drivers] ranks 5 in US . . . 22.1% of households with 3 or more; 60% households with 2, 3 or more . . . EVs & hybrids 12.3% of all new vehicle sales in 2022 (Calif 1.62% of total registration; Iowa 42, 0.12% of registered vehicles” “It costs $10,728 a year, or $894 a month, to own and operate a new car, according to AAA.[6] That’s up 10.99% from 2021, when the average yearly cost was $9,666 a year, or $805.50 a month.[6]

Here are some additional car ownership statistics about new cars:

In 2022, the average sales price for a new car was $45,646, and the average sales price for a used car was $30,796.[7] Over the past five years, new cars have cost $39,884 on average, and used cars have cost $24,242 on average.[7] Between 2018 and 2022, new vehicles increased in price by 28.19%, and used vehicles increased in price by 49.60%.[7]

Cost of car ownership by state To determine which states are the most (and least) expensive for car ownership, Forbes Advisor analyzed gas prices, car repair costs, average car insurance costs and monthly auto loan payments in all 50 states. . . .

Least expensive states to own a car Ohio is the least expensive state to own a car, followed by: Iowa . . . Iowa and Ohio car ownership costs are reduced by cheap car insurance rates, thanks to healthy competition among a multitude of car insurance companies in both states. . . .

Methodology To determine which states are the most expensive for car ownership, Forbes Advisor examined data for all 50 states across the following metrics:
• Cost of regular gasoline (25% of score): Data for this metric comes from AAA and was collected on Feb. 24, 2023.
• Average car repair cost (25% of score): This metric includes the cost of parts and labor for a check engine light-related car repair. Data comes from CarMD and is from 2021.
• Average annual cost of full coverage car insurance (25% of score): This metric is based on liability coverage of 100/300/100 ($100,000 in bodily injury liability per person, $300,000 per accident, and $100,000 in property damage liability), uninsured motorist coverage, and collision and comprehensive insurance with a $500 deductible. We used 2022 rates from Quadrant Information Services.
• Average monthly auto loan payment (25% of score): Data for this metric comes from Experian and is from 2022.”)

Senator Dirksen; “You’re talking real money."

Everett Dirksen, Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Everett_Dirksen (“The saying, "A billion here, a billion there, pretty soon, you're talking real money" has been attributed to Dirksen, but there is no direct record of Dirksen saying the remark.[43]”)

# # #

Don't Do Stupid Stuff

Regarding China, Don’t Do Stupid Stuff
Nicholas Johnson
The Gazette, July 11, 2023, p. A5
We are all interconnected citizens of Planet Earth.

Tiny particulate matter from 500 Canadian fires, capable of causing chronic respiratory disease, moved south and into Iowans’ lungs and bloodstreams.

The U.S. and China produce nearly 50 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions. But it is Pakistan that suffered putrid water over a third of the country and 1500 deaths.

The good news? Instantaneous global communication between international and multinational organizations, governments, businesses and people, ease of transportation, and access to news from around the world.

Ford cars and trucks come from 64 plants in 13 countries. The “Texas” Norton Rose Fulbright law firm now has offices in 64 cities in 36 countries.

The greatest danger in the world?

According to recently retired Richard Haass, 20-year president of the Council on Foreign Relations, it’s no longer his former concerns -- Russia, China, climate change or a global pandemic. “It’s us,” he says, referring to the U.S. political instability and poor example of democracy. Among “democracy countries” the U.S. has dropped to 36 on the list.

Have you ever found yourself having to deal with an extended family member, neighbor or workplace colleague with whom you have less than zero in common? The best strategy? Desperately try to think of a compliment, while heading off conversations likely to end in violence. [Photo: Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken meets with China's Foreign Minister Qin Gang at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing, China on June 18, 2023. Photo credit: State Department photo by Chuck Kennedy/Public Domain, via wikimedia.com]

Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld famously said, “You go to war with the Army you have, not the Army you might want or wish to have at a later time.” The same principle applies to “promoting prosperity while going to peace.”

At a minimum you follow President Obama’s advice to his staff: “Don’t do stupid stuff.”

Which brings us to the current relations between China and the U.S.

Call me naive, but four-star General Mike Minihan’s prediction of war with China by 2025, Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s publicized trip to Taiwan, the provocation of displaying our Naval might near China, and our president announcing that China’s President Xi Jinping is a “dictator,” all strike me as “stupid stuff” – a schoolyard bully looking for a fight.

Are there differences in our two countries’ history, governments and sociology? Some things to be proud of, others to regret? Demands of China, or the U.S., that shouldn’t be agreed to? Of course.

We can’t transform China any more than marriage partners can transform each other, or China could force all Americans to speak Mandarin. As anthropologists have taught us, there are many patterns of culture that work. Or as Rumsfeld might have said, “You participate in global trade with the countries you have, not the countries you wish you had.”

China and the U.S. have built not one, but the two strongest economies in the world. Continuing to increase global understanding and cooperation can enrich us all. Stupidly flexing our military muscle, like a beach bully, only postpones that day while enriching the weapons manufacturers.

Nicholas Johnson prefers peaceful prosperity to strategies of stupid stuff. mailbox@nicholasjohnson.org

SOURCES China – General “China,” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China

“China,” The World Factbook, June 15, 2023, https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/china/

Ana Swanson, “The Contentious U.S.-China Relationship, by the Numbers; From movie theaters to military spending, here’s how one of the world’s most important economic relationships stacks up,” New York Times, July 7, 2023, https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/07/business/economy/us-china-relationship-facts.html (“the world’s two largest economies, which together represent 40 percent of the global output, remain integral partners in many ways. They sell and buy important products from each other, finance each other’s businesses, provide a home to millions of each other’s people, and create apps and movies for audiences in both countries.”)

Alan Rappeport, “Yellen, in Beijing, Criticizes China’s Treatment of U.S. Companies; Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s concerns reflected continuing tensions between the two countries,” New York Times, July 7, 2023, https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/07/business/yellen-china-companies-meetings.html (“An official from China’s ministry of finance expressed hope on Friday that the meetings with Ms. Yellen would improve economic relations and suggested that the United States needs to take steps to make that happen. The official added that neither country benefits from “decoupling” and disrupting supply chains.”)

Air Pollution from Canada. Julie Bosman, “Smoky Air From Canadian Wildfires Blankets Midwestern Skies; Chicago residents were warned to stay indoors or wear masks, and the popular paths along Lake Michigan were quiet,” New York Times, June 27, 2023, https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/27/us/midwest-chicago-smoke-air-quality.html .

Tiny Particulate Matter. “Air Quality Alert,” AccuWeather, Iowa City, Iowa, June 29, 2023, 9:23 AM, https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/iowa-city/52240/air-quality-index/328802 (“Fine Particulate Matter are inhalable pollutant particles with a diameter less than 2.5 micrometers that can enter the lungs and bloodstream, resulting in serious health issues. The most severe impacts are on the lungs and heart. Exposure can result in coughing or difficulty breathing, aggravated asthma, and the development of chronic respiratory disease.”)

U.S. & China carbon emissions. “Which Countries Are The World’s Biggest Carbon Polluters?” Climate Change News, Climate Trade, May 17, 2021, https://climatetrade.com/which-countries-are-the-worlds-biggest-carbon-polluters/ (“However, most of this pollution comes from just a few countries: China, for example, generates around 30% of all global emissions, while the United States is responsible for almost 14%.In the ranking below you can find the 10 countries that produce the most emissions, measured in millions of tons of CO2 in 2019. China, with more than 10,065 million tons of CO2 released. United States, with 5,416 million tons of CO2”)

“Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions Data,” Greenhouse Gas Emissions, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, (undated, but probably 2014), https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/global-greenhouse-gas-emissions-data (“’Emissions by Country’ – China 30%, U.S. 15%)

Pakistan. Raymond Zhong, “In a First Study of Pakistan’s Floods, Scientists See Climate Change at Work; A growing field called attribution science is helping researchers rapidly assess the links between global warming and weather disasters,” New York Times, Sept. 15, 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/15/climate/pakistan-floods-global-warming.html (“The southern part of the Indus River, which traverses the length of the country, became a vast lake. Villages have become islands, surrounded by putrid water that stretches to the horizon. More than 1,500 people have died. Floodwaters could take months to recede.

The deluges were made worse by global warming caused by greenhouse-gas emissions, scientists said Thursday, drawing upon a fast-growing field of research . . .. The floods in Pakistan are the deadliest in a recent string of eye-popping weather extremes . . .: droughts in the Horn of Africa, Mexico and China; flash floods in West and Central Africa, Iran and the inland United States; searing heat waves in India, Japan, California, Britain and Europe.

Scientists have warned for decades that some kinds of extreme weather are becoming more frequent and intense as more heat-trapping gases get pumped into the atmosphere.”)

One-third of Pakistan. Manuela Andreoni, “Why Pakistan was hit so hard; Floods have killed at least 1,100 and submerged about a third of the country. We explain the factors making it so bad,” Climate Forward Newsletter, New York Times, Aug. 30, 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/30/climate/pakistan-floods.html

Sample of International Media. The one listed that may be least familiar: “South China Morning Post,” About Us, https://corp.scmp.com/about-us/

Norton Rose Fulbright offices. “Global Coverage,” Norton Rose Fulbright, https://www.nortonrosefulbright.com/en/global-coverage

Ford suppliers’ countries. J.B. Maverick, “Who Are Ford’s Main Suppliers?” Investopedia, Nov. 29, 2021, https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/052715/who-are-fords-f-main-suppliers.asp (“Ford’s Key Suppliers,” • Flex-N-Gate Seeburn - Ontario, Canada: door hinges and arms. • NHK Spring - Shiga-ken, Japan: suspension stabilizer linkages. • U-Shin Europe - Komárom-Esztergom, Hungary: steering columns. • Valeo Electric and Electronic Systems - Czechowice-Dziedzice, Poland: starter assemblies. • Webasto Roof & Components - Schierling, Germany: sliding sunroofs. • Summit Plastics - Nanjing, China: instrument panel components.

• Dee Zee - Des Moines, Iowa: running boards. • Warn Industries -Clackamas, Oregon: axle assemblies. • Chaidneme - Bogota, Colombia: mufflers and exhaust systems. • Autoliv - Stockholm, Sweden: airbags”)

“[Ford] Worldwide Locations,” (Assembly, 30 plants in 12 countries (8 in China) (Argentina, Canada, Germany, China (8), Mexico, Romania, South Africa, Spain, Thailand, Turkey, United States); Engines, from same country list plus United Kingdom (17); Forging (4), Stamping (6), Transmission (7) (from same country list). Total 64 plants in 13 countries.) https://corporate.ford.com/operations/locations/global-plants.html

Richard Haass. Peter Baker, “To Foreign Policy Veteran, the Real Danger Is at Home; Richard N. Haass says the most serious threat to global security is the United States,” New York Times, July 1, 2023, https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/01/us/politics/richard-haass-biden-trump-foreign-policy.html (“’It’s us,’ he said ruefully the other day.

That was never a thought this global strategist would have entertained until recently. But in his mind, the unraveling of the American political system means that for the first time in his life the internal threat has surpassed the external threat. Instead of being the most reliable anchor in a volatile world, Mr. Haass said, the United States has become the most profound source of instability and an uncertain exemplar of democracy.”)

U.S. and China ranking as democracies. “Ranking of Countries by Quality of Democracy; Complete Ranking: Total Value Index 2020 (Context Measurement),” Universitat Wurzburg, https://www.democracymatrix.com/ranking (Top 4 Denmark, Norway, Finland, Sweden (“Working Democracy”); The U.S. ranks 36 (“Deficient Democracy”); China 172 (“Hard Autocracy”).)

“Democracy Countries, 2023,” World Population Review, https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/democracy-countries (within: https://worldpopulationreview.com/ ) (8 Top: Norway to Ireland, 9.91 to 9.05; U.S. 25th, 7.92; The United States scored 7.92 in 2020 and again landed in the "flawed democracy" category, where it has resided since falling from "full democracy" in 2016. Intolerance of COVID-19 restrictions, distrust in the government, bipartisan gridlock, and especially the increasing ideological polarization between democrats and republicans are all cited as contributors to the lower score.)

China’s economic accomplishments. Google search: “What are China's biggest economic accomplishments?”

U.S. attacks/criticism on China. Anna Mulrine, “In His Memoir, Donald Rumsfeld Admits Five Mistakes, Sort Of,” Christian Science Monitor, Feb. 9, 2011, https://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Military/2011/0209/In-his-memoir-Donald-Rumsfeld-admits-five-mistakes-sort-of/The-Army-you-have (“While Rumsfeld was visiting US troops headed to Iraq in 2004, a soldier pleaded for more armored vehicles. Rumfeld’s response – “You go to war with the Army you have, not the Army you might want or wish to have at a later time”)

[Reference in text was deleted for space reasons, but thought it still worthwhile to include here.] James Carville, “It’s the economy, stupid,” Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/It%27s_the_economy,_stupid (“a phrase that was coined by James Carville in 1992. It is often quoted from a televised quip by Carville as "It’s the economy, stupid." Carville was a strategist in Bill Clinton's successful 1992 presidential campaign against incumbent George H. W. Bush. His phrase was directed at the campaign's workers and intended as one of three messages for them to focus on.”)

Mike Allen, “‘Don’t do stupid sh--' (stuff),” Politico, June 1, 2014, https://www.politico.com/story/2014/06/dont-do-stupid-shit-president-obama-white-house-107293 (“The phrase – as “Don’t do stupid stuff,” with a demure disclaimer that the actual wording was saltier and spicier than “stuff” — appeared in the Los Angeles Times at the end of Obama’s Asia trip this spring, was reprised in the lead story of Thursday’s New York Times.

But the West Wing hit the jackpot Sunday when it was used twice in The New York Times — once in the news columns, and once in a column by Thomas L. Friedman, who had been part of an off-the-record roundtable with Obama on Tuesday.”)

General. Courtney Kube and Mosheh Gains, “Air Force general predicts war with China in 2025, tells officers to prep by firing 'a clip' at a target, and 'aim for the head;' ‘I hope I am wrong. My gut tells me will fight in 2025,’ said Gen. Mike Minihan in a memo sent to the officers he commands and obtained by NBC News,” Jan. 27, 2023, https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/us-air-force-general-predicts-war-china-2025-memo-rcna67967 (Gen. Mike Minihan, head of Air Mobility Command) – “General Mike Minihan is a Four-Star General who commands the Air Mobility Command for the United States Air Force.” Buddy Blouin, “WAR WITH CHINA: THE MEMO FROM FOUR-STAR GENERAL MIKE MINIHAN ON CHINA IS ALARMING.” MyBaseGuide, undated, https://mybaseguide.com/mike-minihan

Pelosi. Jude Blanchette, Charles Edel, Christopher B. Johnstone, Scott Kennedy, Victor Cha, Ellen Kim, and Gregory B. Poling, “Speaker Pelosi’s Taiwan Visit: Implications for the Indo-Pacific,” CISI (Center for Strategic & International Studies), Aug. 15, 2022, https://www.csis.org/analysis/speaker-pelosis-taiwan-visit-implications-indo-pacific ) (“U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan beginning August 2 triggered stark opposition from Beijing and sparked concerns within the United States and around the Indo-Pacific about the impacts of the visit and the Chinese military response on regional security. Following the visit, Beijing launched large-scale military exercises, raising discussion of a possible Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis.”)

US ships. “List of current ships of the United States Navy,” Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_current_ships_of_the_United_States_Navy (“The United States Navy has over 485 ships in both active service and the reserve fleet; of these approximately 60 ships are proposed or scheduled for retirement, while approximately 90 new ships are in either the planning and ordering stages or under construction, according to the Naval Vessel Register and published reports.”)

“United States Navy Military Ship Tracker/Live Ship Tracking Map,” https://www.cruisingearth.com/ship-tracker/united-states-navy/ (“United States Navy currently has 94 trackable ships.”)

Commander, U.S. 7th Fleet, “The United States Seventh Fleet,” https://www.c7f.navy.mil/About-Us/Facts-Sheet/ (“Who we are:

• Seventh Fleet is the largest of the U.S. Navy's forward-deployed fleets.

• At any given time there are 50-70 ships and submarines, 150 aircraft, and more than 27,000 Sailors and Marines in Seventh Fleet.

• Commanded by a 3-star Navy Flag officer, Vice Adm. Karl Thomas, since July 8, 2021.

Where we operate:

• Seventh Fleet’s area of operations spans more than 124-million square kilometers [47,876,668 square miles], stretching from the International Date Line to the India/Pakistan border; and from the Kuril Islands in the North to the Antarctic in the South.

• Seventh Fleet’s area of operations encompasses 36 maritime countries and 50% of the world’s population, including:

- The five largest foreign militaries: China, Russia, India, North Korea, and the Republic of Korea

- Five U.S. Mutual Defense Treaty Allies: the Philippines, Australia, the Republic of Korea, Japan, and Thailand”)

Biden. Trevor Hunnicutt and Ryan Woo, “China hits back after Biden calls Xi a 'dictator,'” Reuters, June 21, 2023, https://www.reuters.com/world/biden-calls-chinese-president-xi-dictator-2023-06-21/ (“China hit back on Wednesday after U.S. President Joe Biden referred to President Xi Jinping as a "dictator", saying the remarks were absurd and a provocation, an unexpected flare-up following attempts by both sides to reduce friction.

Biden made his comments just a day after U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken completed a visit to China aimed at stabilizing relations that Beijing says are at their lowest point since formal ties were established in 1979.”)

China and Taiwan. David Brown, “China and Taiwan: A really simple guide,” BBC News, April 6, 2023, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-59900139 (“China points to this history to say that Taiwan was originally a Chinese province. But the Taiwanese point to the same history to argue that they were never part of the modern Chinese state that was first formed after the revolution in 1911 - or the People's Republic of China that was established under Mao in 1949.” Chart: “Taiwan dominates the global production of computer chips; Global foundry market share, by country and company 2021” Taiwan 65%, South Korea 18%, China 5%, Other 12%)

Lindsay Maizland, “Why China-Taiwan Relations Are So Tense; Differences over Taiwan’s status have fueled rising tensions between the island and the mainland. Taiwan has the potential to be a flash point in U.S.-China relations,” Council on Foreign Relations, April 18, 2023, https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-relations-tension-us-policy-biden (“Summary • Taiwan has been governed independently of China since 1949, but Beijing views the island as part of its territory. Beijing has vowed to eventually “unify” Taiwan with the mainland, using force if necessary.

• Tensions are rising. Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, whose party platform favors independence, has rebuked Beijing’s efforts to undermine democracy. Beijing has ramped up political and military pressure on Taipei.

• Some analysts fear the United States and China could go to war over Taiwan. U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s trip to the island in 2022 heightened tensions between the countries. Introduction “Beijing asserts that there is only “one China” and that Taiwan is part of it. It views the PRC as the only legitimate government of China, an approach it calls the One-China principle, and seeks Taiwan’s eventual “unification” with the mainland.

Beijing claims that Taiwan is bound by an understanding known as the 1992 Consensus, which was reached between representatives of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the Kuomintang (KMT) party that then ruled Taiwan. However, the two sides don’t agree on the content of this so-called consensus, and it was never intended to address the question of Taiwan’s legal status. For the PRC, as Chinese President Xi Jinping has stated, the 1992 Consensus reflects an agreement that “the two sides of the strait belong to one China and would work together to seek national reunification.” For the KMT, it means “one China, different interpretations,” with the ROC standing as the “one China.”

“[Taiwan] President Tsai, who is also the leader of the DPP, has refused to explicitly accept the consensus. Instead, she has attempted to find another formulation that would be acceptable to Beijing. In her 2016 inaugural address, Tsai noted she was “elected president in accordance with the Constitution of the Republic of China,” which is a one-China document, and said she would “safeguard the sovereignty and territory of the Republic of China.” Tsai also pledged that she would “conduct cross-strait affairs in accordance with the Republic of China Constitution, the Act Governing Relations Between the People of [the] Taiwan Area and the Mainland Area, and other relevant legislation.”

“Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), the world’s largest contract chip maker and the top supplier for Apple and other U.S. companies. It is one of only two companies in the world (the other is South Korea-based Samsung) that has the technological know-how to make the smallest, most advanced chips, and it manufactures more than 90 percent of them.”

“The United States, China, and Taiwan: A Strategy to Prevent War; United States make clear that it will not change Taiwan’s status, yet will work with allies to plan for Chinese aggression and help Taiwan defend itself,” U.S. Foreign Policy Program, Council on Foreign Relations, Feb. 2021, https://www.cfr.org/report/united-states-china-and-taiwan-strategy-prevent-war (“Robert D. Blackwill, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Henry A. Kissinger senior fellow for U.S. foreign policy, and Philip Zelikow, University of Virginia White Burkett Miller professor of history.   

In a new Council Special Report, The United States, China, and Taiwan: A Strategy to Prevent War, the authors argue that the United States should change and clarify its strategy to prevent war over Taiwan. “The U.S. strategic objective regarding Taiwan should be to preserve its political and economic autonomy, its dynamism as a free society, and U.S.-allied deterrence—without triggering a Chinese attack on Taiwan.”)

China economic achievements. “The World Bank in China; Since China began to open up and reform its economy in 1978, GDP growth has averaged over 9 percent a year, and more than 800 million people have lifted themselves out of poverty. There have also been significant improvements in access to health, education, and other services over the same period.” The World Bank, https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/china/overview

# # #

Are Electric Cars the Answer?

Are Electric Cars the Answer?
Nicholas Johnson
The Gazette, May 3, 2023, p. A6
Can Americans’ electric cars slow climate change?

In 1971 the comics’ Pogo ecologically observed, “We have met the enemy and he is us.” We have now witnessed more and stronger tornadoes and hurricanes, droughts and floods, heat waves and wildfires.

Since 1990 the annual official warnings have intensified. UN Secretary Guterres now advocates “climate action on all fronts: everything, everywhere, all at once.”

However impressive our politicians’ rhetoric and professed goals, neither will save us. Consider President Biden’s electric cars plan. He wants 67 percent of America’s newly manufactured cars to be electric by 2032.

But what does “electric” mean when 80 percent of U.S. electricity is generated from fossil fuels? (Iowa only 40 percent.)

Among the proposal’s other numerous challenges are four: consumers, chargers, cobalt and China.

Consumers. Cars on dealers’ lots are not cars in driveways. Recently 70 percent of car sales were used cars. The average age of drivable cars is 13 years. So we’re talking the occasional purchase of one third of car sales.

Used EV cars? An EV car’s “range” is the miles it can go from a 100 percent charge. But the recommended charge is between 20 and 80 percent – 60 percent of its “range.” Excessive heat or cold, fast chargers, driving speed, age and miles, reduce it further. Why buy a used battery, whether in a car or flashlight?

Chargers. Unless the EV owner lives in a house or apartment with a personal, assigned charging station, that EV is just street decoration. Gas tanks fill in five minutes. Charging takes 30 minutes to hours. Is the hunt and wait time worth it? On the road, PBS found numerous broken chargers; electricity priced four times what homeowners pay. Will they remain unregulated? [Photo credit: Wikimedia commons; EV owner's questions: Is there any charger within your remaining "range" in this sparcely populated countryside? Once there, is it turned on? Is it broken? Does the nozzel fit your car? Will it accept your credit card? How long will the charge take? How many times what homeowners pay for electricity are you being charged? If it won't work for you, do you have enough "range" left to reach the next charging station?]

[Credit: Toons, "The Electric Car," May 26, 2023, https://www.toonpool.com/cartoons/the%20electric%20car_13284]

Cobalt. You can’t buy 1000-2000-pound lithium EV batteries, or their components, in most U.S. cities. Gathering lithium, cobalt, and other minerals is not like pumping oil or mining coal. For example, the Congo gathers 70 percent of the world’s cobalt with the hands of children and forced labor.

China. China has a 10-year head start on EVs, producing two-thirds of global EV cars and 75 percent of EV batteries. It controls half the world’s components, refining and processing capacity. The U.S. has 10 percent of EV production and 7 percent of battery production, with shortages of necessary minerals. The U.S. can’t be world EV car champion. Cooperation with China would benefit both countries.

There are alternatives.

Seatbelts weren’t popular with manufacturers or customers. The government’s response? Requiring them on all government vehicles. Soon all cars followed.

Much CO2 comes from fleets, postal and other delivery vehicles, city and school buses. Replacing them with EVs and individual charging stations should be project one.

Some EVs have burst into flames, especially e-bikes. But peddling one, or walking; working from home; housing closer to workplaces are among other alternatives.

EV cars? OK. Just don’t put America’s biggest bet on them.

Nicholas Johnson drove a dealer’s EV car. Loved it as a toy; it was not practical (for him) as a car. mailbox@nicholasjohnson.org

SOURCES Climate change. Gregory Johnson, “Eco News 2023,” Resources for Life, April 22, 2023, https://resourcesforlife.com/docs/item38972

Fiona Harvey, “Scientists deliver ‘final warning’ on climate crisis: act now or it’s too late; IPCC report says only swift and drastic action can avert irrevocable damage to world,” The Guardian, March 20, 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/mar/20/ipcc-climate-crisis-report-delivers-final-warning-on-15c (The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), made up of the world’s leading climate scientists, set out the final part of its mammoth sixth assessment report on Monday . . . boiled down to one message: act now, or it will be too late. The UN secretary general, António Guterres, said: “This report is a clarion call to massively fast-track climate efforts by every country and every sector and on every timeframe. Our world needs climate action on all fronts: everything, everywhere, all at once. . . . we have failed to reverse the 200-year trend of rising greenhouse gas emissions, despite more than 30 years of warnings from the IPCC, which published its first report in 1990 . . . impacts, such as the loss of agriculture, rising sea levels, and the devastation of the natural world”)

“How Do We Know Climate Change Is Real?” Global Climate Change, NASA, https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/

“The Causes of Climate Change,” Global Climate Change, NASA, https://climate.nasa.gov/causes/

“Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report,” UN Environment Programme, March 20, 2023, https://www.unep.org/resources/report/climate-change-2023-synthesis-report

“Environment Under Review; We empower governments and other stakeholders in evidence-based decision-making,” UN Environment Programme, https://www.unep.org/explore-topics/environment-under-review

Pogo – enemy is us. “File: Pogo - Earth Day 1971 poster.jpg,” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Pogo_-_Earth_Day_1971_poster.jpg (“We have met the enemy and he is us.”)

Effects of climate change. “The Effects of Climate Change,” Global Climate Change, NASA, https://climate.nasa.gov/effects/ (“Midwest. Extreme heat, heavy downpours, and flooding will affect infrastructure, health, agriculture, forestry, transportation, air and water quality, and more.)

Warnings since 1990. Fiona Harvey, “Scientists deliver ‘final warning’ on climate crisis: act now or it’s too late; IPCC report says only swift and drastic action can avert irrevocable damage to world,” The Guardian, March 20, 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/mar/20/ipcc-climate-crisis-report-delivers-final-warning-on-15c (“we have failed to reverse the 200-year trend of rising greenhouse gas emissions, despite more than 30 years of warnings from the IPCC, which published its first report in 1990 . . .”)

Guterres. Ibid. (“The UN secretary general, António Guterres, said: “This report is a clarion call to massively fast-track climate efforts by every country and every sector and on every timeframe. Our world needs climate action on all fronts: everything, everywhere, all at once. . . . “)

Biden Plan. Ana Faguy, “Planned EPA Rules Could Make 67% Of New U.S. Cars Electric By 2032,” Forbes, April 12, 2023, https://www.forbes.com/sites/anafaguy/2023/04/12/biden-proposes-standards-designed-to-make-most-new-us-cars-electric-by-2032 (“The Environmental Protection Agency announced two proposed rules Wednesday designed to ensure that 67% of new passenger cars and 25% of heavy trucks sold in the U.S. are all-electric by 2032, in the latest push from the Biden Administration to reduce planet-warming emissions by pivoting to electric vehicles.”)

See also, “FACT SHEET: President Biden Announces Steps to Drive American Leadership Forward on Clean Cars and Trucks,” The White House, Aug. 5, 2021, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/08/05/fact-sheet-president-biden-announces-steps-to-drive-american-leadership-forward-on-clean-cars-and-trucks/ Although approaching two years old, this statement provides additional wording and clues with regard to what vehicles are included – Cars only? Cars and “light trucks”? Cars, light trucks, and medium to heavy trucks?

Whatever is ultimately included as the President’s plan unfolds from proposals to legislation and action, this column is focused on “cars,” as that is of greatest relevance to most of the news stories and data – and readers of The Gazette.

Electricity from fossil fuels. “Renewable Energy,” Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy, Department of Energy, https://www.energy.gov/eere/renewable-energy (“Renewable Energy [in the US] generates about 20% of all U.S. electricity.”)

“Renewable and Nonrenewable Energy Sources,” World Energy Use, Texas Gateway, https://www.texasgateway.org/resource/79-world-energy-use (“About 85 percent of our energy comes from nonrenewable fossil fuels—oil, natural gas, coal.”)

Steve Cohen, “Fossil Fuels, Renewable Energy, and Electric Vehicles,” State of the Planet, Columbia University Climate School, Feb. 21, 2022, https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2022/02/21/fossil-fuels-renewable-energy-and-electric-vehicles/

“Emissions of Carbon Dioxide in the Transportation Sector,” Congressional Budget Office, Dec. 22, 2022, https://www.cbo.gov/publication/58861 [credits at end of document] (“Increases in CAFE and greenhouse gas emissions standards and changes in incentives for purchasing electric vehicles take time to improve the average fuel economy of vehicles on the road because the stock of vehicles is replaced slowly. The average age of passenger vehicles driven in the United States is 12 years, so even several years after a new standard is adopted or electric vehicle sales are boosted, most vehicles on the road will still be older models that produce more emissions.”) See heading, “Average age of cars 13.1 years,” below.

Iowa’s electricity from wind. “Iowa State Profile and Energy Estimates,” Independent Statistics and Analysis, U.S. Energy Information Administration, July 21, 2022, https://www.eia.gov/state/analysis.php?sid=IA (60% Iowa’s electricity comes from wind. “In 2021, nearly three-fifths of Iowa's total electricity net generation came from renewable resources, almost all of it from wind.24”)

Used Cars 70%. Ben Ellencweig, Sam Ezratty, Dan Fleming, and Itai Miller, “Used cars, new platforms: Accelerating sales in a digitally disrupted market,” McKinsey, June 6, 2019, https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/used-cars-new-platforms-accelerating-sales-in-a-digitally-disrupted-market (39.4/56.7=0.694 “McKinsey’s auto retail micro-market model (ARM3) for used-car demand in the United States estimates that Americans buy 39.4 million used cars each year, versus 17.3 million new ones (2018), and that used-vehicle sales will increase faster than new-vehicle sales over the next five years.”)

Average age of cars 13.1 years. Nishant Parekh and Todd Campau, “Average Age of Vehicles in the US Increases to 12.2 years, according to S&P Global Mobility,” S&P Global, May 23, 2022, https://www.spglobal.com/mobility/en/research-analysis/average-age-of-vehicles-in-the-us-increases-to-122-years.html ([Chart indicates average age for “light vehicles” is 12.2 years; but the average for “cars” is 13.1 years] “The average age of light vehicles in the US reached an all-time high in 2022 as the vehicle fleet climbed to 283M passenger cars and light trucks. The average age of light vehicles in operation (VIO) in the US rose to 12.2 years this year, increasing by nearly two months over the prior year, according to new research from S&P Global Mobility (formerly the automotive team at IHS Markit). This is the fifth straight year the average vehicle age in the US has risen. This year's average age marks another all-time high for the average age even as the vehicle fleet recovered, growing by 3.5 million units in the past year.”)

Used, New, Age, Total vehicles. Ashlee Tilford, “Car Ownership Statistics 2023,” Forbes Advisor, March 7, 2023, https://www.forbes.com/advisor/car-insurance/car-ownership-statistics/ (“There were a total of 278,063,737 personal and commercial vehicles registered to drivers in the U.S. in 2021. [1] . . . Sales of electric vehicles (EVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and hybrid electric vehicles accounted for 12.3% of all new vehicles sold in 2022, up 2.7 percentage points from 2021, according to the National Automobile Dealers Association. . . . In 2022, the average sales price for a new car was $45,646, and the average sales price for a used car was $30,796.[7])

Source unknown; Google response to question: “What percentage of private vehicle sales each year are used vehicles and what percent are new vehicles?” “The findings mirror National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) data that says the average dealer achieves a roughly 0.75:1 used-to-new sales ratio. May 7, 2018” Source: Dale Pollak, “3 Pillars Of A Stellar Used-to-New Vehicle Sales Ratio,” Like I See It, May 7, 2018, https://www.dalepollak.com/2018/05/3-pillars-stellar-usedtonew-vehicle-sales-ratio/

Car Value. “Why Does a New Car Lose Value After It's Driven off the Lot?” Cars Direct, March 11, 2020, https://www.carsdirect.com/used-car-prices/why-does-a-new-car-lose-value-after-its-driven-off-the-lot (“A new car depreciates or loses value almost immediately after you drive it off a dealer's lot. As a quick rule of thumb, a car will lose between 15% and 20% of its value each year according to Bankrate.com.”)

EV cars’ “range.” Jordan Fromholz, “Do Electric Cars Lose Range Over Time? Here is the Data,” Plugin Report, c. 2017, https://pluginreport.com/do-electrics-cars-lose-range-over-time/

Charging. Credit: These opening sources and commentary were provided by Sherman Johnson: (“Here's a PBS video from the most recent [April 26, 2023] NewsHour. It turns out the EV experience can sometimes be lacking: "Demand for electric vehicles growing, but can charging network keep up?" https://youtu.be/fAVuwKTalk4 According to PBS, attempting to drive in certain areas in an EV can be frustrating, time consuming, and/or expensive. In their experience, many chargers do not work, and even when they do they are expensive. The rate at one charger they showed was *$0.48* per kWh! That's about 4x the average cost of residential electricity. FOUR (4) times! https://neo.ne.gov/programs/stats/inf/204.htm 33.7kWh has the same amount of energy (BTUs) as one gallon of gas. $0.48/kWh x 33.7kWh = ~*$16.20* -- for the energy equivalent of one (1) gallon of gasoline! So even if the EV gets over 100 MPGe, it will still cost more per mile to operate than a typical ICE vehicle!

The national average price of gas is about $3.65/gallon. $16.20 / $3.65 = over 4.4 gallons of gas that could be purchased for $16.20. So an ICE car that gets over ~25 mpg will cost LESS per mile (for fuel) than an EV that gets ~100 MPGe (when paying 48 cents per kWh). That means that unless a person can charge at home, an EV may not be the best choice. The owner may have to pay exorbitant rates for electricity; they have to hope there is a charger available -- and that it works; they must wait for their car to charge -- anywhere from 1/2 hour to an hour or more. Oh, and don't forget the fat fines for leaving the EV at the charger after it's done charging. Those are some of the potential downsides of EVs. The other side of the argument might be that there is plenty of competition; that the chargers (especially the highest power ones) are very expensive, as is the installation (concrete pads; trenching for underground cables; upgrading the utility service; new transformers, etc.) and permits, etc. Obviously, the cost per kWh will be somewhat higher at commercial chargers than residential rates -- the question is, how much is reasonable? If there truly is adequate competition, then perhaps $0.48 to $0.58 (and more) per kWh is the amount they must charge to make a reasonable profit -- but I doubt it. I can understand that the companies installing chargers need a reasonable ROI, but -- without knowing all of the costs involved -- ~$0.50 per kWh seems very high. Also, once the initial costs are recouped, they should be able to lower the cost per kWh, because ongoing maintenance costs will be relatively low. To be fair, EVs do make a lot of sense for a large segment of drivers. Primarily those that can charge at home (or at work), and do not discharge the battery beyond the amount they can recharge it (usually overnight at home -- 100 to 200 miles in 10 hours with a Level 2 residential charger). In that case, an EV: * Saves money (much lower cost per mile for “fuel”. * Saves time -- no gas tank to fill; no oil changes; tune-ups, etc. * Is always "full" when leaving home. * Helps reduce the owner's carbon footprint (reduction varies according to type of EV and source of electricity). * Is fun to drive. Even some moderately priced EVs are quick: https://insideevs.com/news/534101/electric-cars-60mph-acceleration-20210919/ Good, concise charger info: Level 1; Level 2; DC Fast Charging, etc., https://www.transportation.gov/rural/ev/toolkit/ev-basics/charging-speeds Here's a good related article: https://www.jdpower.com/cars/shopping-guides/what-is-kwh-per-100-miles )

And see, “Chasing Carbon Zero,” NOVA, PBS, April 26, 2023, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cN-P4ilk7Iw 2:45-5:47, 43:44-48:40.

For a little balance, see Christian Agatie, "This 2018 Tesla Model 3 Passed the 300,000-Mile Mark, Here's What You Need To Know," Auto Evolution, July 26, 2022, https://www.autoevolution.com/news/this-2018-tesla-model-3-passed-the-300000-mile-mark-here-s-what-you-need-to-know-194534.html ("The guy works as a courier and drives more than 300 miles every night, Monday to Friday. This also explains the high mileage after only four years on the road. As you’ve guessed by now, he drives 90% of the time at highway speed, which is not very taxing on the drivetrain. Nevertheless, he often needs to charge at Superchargers, which is known to take a toll on the battery. But even so, 310,000 miles and still 80% of the battery left is impressive. Most people would not drive that much in a decade.")

Lithium battery weight. “Electric car battery weight explained,” EV Driver, EVBOX, Feb. 17, 2023, https://blog.evbox.com/ev-battery-weight (“On average, however, EV batteries weigh around 454 kg (1,000 pounds), although some can weigh as much as 900 kg (2,000 pounds).”)

Cobalt. David Iaconangelo, “U.S. strikes at China with EV battery deal,” EnergyWire, E&E News, Jan. 20, 2023, https://www.eenews.net/articles/u-s-strikes-at-china-with-ev-battery-deal/ (“The deal also raises questions about how new U.S. influence in the region might affect alleged labor abuses in the Congolese cobalt sector, which provides 70 percent of the world’s supply. Last year, the Labor Department added lithium-ion batteries to its list of goods made with child labor or forced labor due to reports of abuses in the country’s cobalt mines (Energywire, Oct. 5, 2022).”)

See, in “China EV Sales,” below, Hannah Northey, “Biden’s EV Bet is a Gamble on Critical Minerals,” E&E News Greenwire, April 18, 2023, https://www.eenews.net/articles/bidens-ev-bet-is-also-a-gamble-on-critical-minerals/

“Critical Minerals in Electric Vehicle Batteries,” Congressional Research Service, Aug. 29, 2022, https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R47227 (“More than 16 million total EVs have been sold worldwide, with about 6.6 million EVs sold in 2021. The U.S. EV market is small when compared to those in China and Europe: new U.S. EV registrations were slightly less than 10% of new global EV registrations in 2021, while registrations in China were 50% of the global total and European registrations were 35%. . . . These EV battery chemistries depend on five critical minerals whose domestic supply is potentially at risk for disruption: lithium, cobalt, manganese, nickel, and graphite. The U.S. Geological Survey designated these and other minerals as “critical,” according to the methodology codified in the Energy Act of 2020. The United States is heavily dependent on imports for these minerals for use in EV batteries and other applications.”)

"Salton Sea lithium deposits could help EV transition, support economically devastated area" https://youtu.be/zq3x54cgLvM (From below the video: Jan 24, 2023 "The demand for electric vehicles is surging in the U.S., sparked in part by the Biden administration’s Inflation Reduction Act and the subsidies it offers. But a looming supply shortage of lithium threatens to stall the EV transition. Stephanie Sy traveled to California's Salton Sea where lithium deposits could help meet the country’s energy needs and support an economically devastated region. Correction: This segment stated that the Salton Sea area alone could produce nearly six times the lithium currently produced globally. This was a miscalculation. The region could produce an amount of lithium roughly equal to existing annual global output, not six times the amount.")

China EV sales. May Zhou, “China Drives Up Global EV Sales to New Record,” China Daily, Jan. 17, 2023, https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202301/17/WS63c602dba31057c47ebaa0ab.html (“China accounted for around two-thirds of global sales of full EVs last year.”)

David Iaconangelo, “U.S. strikes at China with EV battery deal,” EnergyWire, E&E News, Jan. 20, 2023, https://www.eenews.net/articles/u-s-strikes-at-china-with-ev-battery-deal/ (“Congo and Zambia are major global sources of cobalt and copper, key ingredients in lithium-ion batteries. Once extracted, those minerals are often exported to China, where they are subsequently processed and incorporated into batteries. China made about 75 percent of the world’s lithium-ion batteries in 2021, compared with 7 percent for the U.S., according to the International Energy Agency. . . . The deal also raises questions about how new U.S. influence in the region might affect alleged labor abuses in the Congolese cobalt sector, which provides 70 percent of the world’s supply. Last year, the Labor Department added lithium-ion batteries to its list of goods made with child labor or forced labor due to reports of abuses in the country’s cobalt mines (Energywire, Oct. 5, 2022).”)

[2 pages] Hannah Northey, “Biden’s EV Bet is a Gamble on Critical Minerals,” E&E News Greenwire, April 18, 2023, https://www.eenews.net/articles/bidens-ev-bet-is-also-a-gamble-on-critical-minerals/ (“EPA in its proposed tailpipe rules released last week, which would aggressively limit emissions from cars, SUVs and trucks on U.S. roads by 2032, includes key assertions about the future of the EV industry. Among those: The price of lithium needed to make batteries will “likely stabilize” at or near historic levels by the mid-2020s . . .. “No one … has any idea whether that’s correct or not,” said Morgan Bazilian, public policy professor at the Colorado School of Mines. Right now, critical minerals like lithium, cobalt and nickel needed to make EV batteries are largely mined and processed abroad — an industry dominated by China. . . . Andrew Miller, chief operating officer at U.K. mining data firm Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, said he doesn’t expect the U.S. to be able to produce the amount of lithium it needs over the coming decades. Miller also said he expects the “incredibly volatile” pricing around lithium and other minerals seen in recent weeks and months to continue, throwing into question the United States’ ability to secure enough material in an increasingly competitive global landscape. . . . The nation’s ability to deploy EVs at an aggressive clip will hinge, in part, on bringing down the price tag of EV batteries — which account for up to 40 percent of the car’s cost — and securing supplies of critical minerals and metals needed to manufacture them. As it stands, today’s battery and mineral supply chains revolve around China, and the International Energy Agency has said that supply chains will need to expand tenfold to meet the world’s ambitions for EV adoption. China pumps out three-quarters of all lithium-ion batteries, and over half of lithium, cobalt and graphite processing and refining capacity is located there, according to IEA. The U.S., in comparison, has a much smaller role, with only 10 percent of EV production and 7 percent of battery production capacity. . . . Miller said it’s “incredibly optimistic” to look at the lithium in the ground across the United States and expect the nation can rely on projects coming into production. “This isn’t something that happens quickly,” he said. He predicted many projects wouldn’t reach “their full potential or even … some type of production” until the 2030s. . . . “You’re constrained by the fact that there’s fundamentally not enough material to recycle to meet your ambitions,” he said. “You’re going to need new mines, you’re going to need recycling, we’re going to need technology to play a role.” . . . Specifically, a car becomes eligible for half of the Inflation Reduction Act’s $7,500 tax credit if at least 40 percent of the critical minerals in an EV battery are extracted or processed in the United States or in a country that has a free-trade agreement with the United States, or are recycled in North America. To receive the other half of the credit, 50 percent of EV battery components must be manufactured or assembled in North America. Eligible cars cannot contain battery components from “foreign entities of concern” starting in January, a rule that kicks in for minerals the following year. . . . Timothy Johnson, a professor of energy and environment at Duke University’s Nicholas School of the Environment, said the targets for developing supply chains under both the Inflation Reduction Act and the tailpipe rule are “aspirational” given where the United States is right now. While the minerals exist in the U.S. and its allies, Johnson said the bigger question is whether people will accept what’s poised to be a mining boom in the name of climate change as nations across the globe search for minerals like lithium, manganese, copper and graphite needed for not just EVs, but also electrifying buildings, boosting renewables and energy storage. “It would take the equivalent of, I think, the industrial ramp-up you saw in the run up to World War II, that’s the level of industrial transformation that needs to take place,” said Johnson. “So physically, could we do it? Yeah, if we decided, but I think the big question here is would it be socially acceptable.”)

Hiroko Tabuchi and Brad Plumer, “How Green Are Electric Vehicles? In short: Very green. But plug-in cars still have environmental effects. Here’s a guide to the main issues and how they might be addressed,” New York Times, Nov. 9, 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/02/climate/electric-vehicles-environment.html (“the lithium-ion cells that power most electric vehicles rely on raw materials — like cobalt, lithium and rare earth elements — that have been linked to grave environmental and human rights concerns. . . . “)

“Can Geothermal Energy Solve the Lithium Shortfall?” Geothermal Technologies Office, Department of Energy, Oct. 18, 2021, https://www.energy.gov/eere/geothermal/articles/can-geothermal-energy-solve-lithium-shortfall (“Hot salty water, or geothermal brine, is pumped to the surface and converted to a gas that turns a turbine to generate electricity from heat within the Earth. In addition to electricity production, these geothermal brines can yield lithium, brought up in the brine solution from thousands of feet underground.”)

EV Fires. Becky Sullivan, “What's driving the battery fires with e-bikes and scooters?” Technology, NPR, March 11, 2023, https://www.npr.org/2023/03/11/1162732820/e-bike-scooter-lithium-ion-battery-fires (“Last week's blaze joined the more than 200 fires in New York City last year caused by batteries from e-bikes, electric scooters and similar devices. Lithium-ion battery explosions are now the third leading cause of fires in the city, the fire department says. . . . They're small, lightweight and powerful — but they're also prone to overheating and catching fire, said Michael Pecht, a professor of engineering at the University of Maryland. "Ever since lithium-ion batteries started to be prevalent in products, we've seen fires," he said. . . . "They can provide a lot of power to our cell phones and to our computers for a relatively long period of time in a very small volume," he said. "But because we have so much energy packed in that small volume, if there is a problem, then they're very flammable." . . . Chevy, Hyundai and Chrysler have all been forced to issue recalls over battery fires in electric vehicles. The Federal Aviation Administration reported more than 60 incidents last year in which lithium-ion batteries . . . overheated, began smoking or caught fire on airplanes.”)

Ask Bing: “How serious is the problem of lithium ion batteries bursting into flame?”

“These lithium-ion batteries can’t catch fire because they harden on impact,” 2018 Technology Innovation Program: Safe Impact Resistant Electrolytes (SAFIRE), Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Sept. 5, 2018, https://www.ornl.gov/news/these-lithium-ion-batteries-cant-catch-fire-because-they-harden-impact (“Lithium-ion batteries commonly used in consumer electronics are notorious for bursting into flame when damaged or improperly packaged. These incidents occasionally have grave consequences, including burns, house fires and at least one plane crash. Inspired by the weird behavior of some liquids that solidify on impact, researchers have developed a practical and inexpensive way to help prevent these fires. They presented their results in August at the 256th National Meeting & Exposition of the American Chemical Society (ACS). “’In a lithium-ion battery, a thin piece of plastic separates the two electrodes,’ said Gabriel Veith of the Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory, the project’s principal investigator. ‘If the battery is damaged and the plastic layer fails, the electrodes can come into contact and cause the battery's liquid electrolyte to catch fire.’”)

Larry Greenemeier, “Could Chevy Volt Lithium-Ion Battery Fires Burn Out Interest in EVs and Hybrids?” Scientific American, Nov 29, 2011, https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/could-chevy-volt-lithium-ion-battery-fires-burn-out-interest-in-evs-and-hybrids/ (“Lithium-ion battery fires are nothing new, but until now they have been more a problem for makers of cell phones, MP3 players and laptops than car companies. As Scientific American reported in August 2010, the usual cause of lithium-ion battery fires has been "thermal runaway," a chemical reaction that could start from excessive overheating, then potentially cause a cell to catch fire or explode.”)

Go to https://www.bing.com/search?q=lithium+ion+batteries+bursting+into+flame&toWww=1&redig=CA9ACE5EDDF5449C95D5F6A980AC91D8

Andres Picon, “Why 6 flooded EVs burst into flames after Hurricane Ian,” Climate Wire, E&E News (“essential energy and environment”), Oct 21, 2022, https://www.eenews.net/articles/why-6-flooded-evs-burst-into-flames-after-hurricane-ian/ (“In the days after Hurricane Ian made landfall in Florida, firefighters near Naples put out six blazes in electric vehicles that had been submerged in seawater. It was a first. The North Collier Fire Control & Rescue District had never before dealt with an EV fire. The hurricane’s storm surge flooded thousands of vehicles with salt water, and the surprising fires added a challenge to a fire department that was already overwhelmed by search and rescue operations in the wake of the deadly storm. The fires also put a political target on electric vehicles. . . . Pol, the Purdue engineering professor, said he would be hesitant to purchase an electric vehicle. “I am aware of how much energy [an EV’s lithium-ion battery] can store,” he said, “and that could go wrong one way or another.”)

See generally, “Are Electric Cars Worse For The Environment? Myth Busted,” Engineering Explained, YouTube, c. 2019, 13:46, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6RhtiPefVzM and https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=engineering+explained+ev+vs+ice for more

“The EPA Wants Millions More EVs On The Road. Should You Buy One?” Consider This, NPR, April 14, 2023, 15:00, https://www.npr.org/2023/04/14/1170175321/the-epa-wants-millions-more-evs-on-the-road-should-you-buy-one (issues discussed: Range, Charging stations, 67% EV sales necessary, 7% sales now, $58K average, Could lose factory jobs (easier to assemble), Need more mass market, Will be more and cheaper, Not used EVs, Don’t have a charger nearby, Tax credits 50% components 40% only if minerals or recycled in US)

E-bike fires have been a special concern to Kate Johnson, who lives in New York City. Here are some sample stories:

"2 youths were killed in the latest fire blamed on an e-bike in New York City," AP and NPR, April 11, 2023, https://www.npr.org/2023/04/11/1169169634/fatal-e-bike-fires ("An electric bicycle powered by a lithium ion battery is being blamed for a fatal fire on Monday in New York City that killed two youths, marking the latest in a string of e-bike-related fires in the city. . . . With Monday's fire, there have been five fire-related deaths this year in New York City where officials have said the cause of the blaze was an e-bike, out of 59 total e-bike-related fires this year.")

Winnie Hu and Joshua Needelman, "Two Young People Killed in E-Bike Fire in Queens; The bike’s battery was being charged near the front door of the apartment building when the blaze ignited and quickly spread," New York Times, April 10, 2023, https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/10/nyregion/e-bike-fire-queens-fatal.html.

Peter Charalambous, "Amid a rise in fires and deaths, New York City enacts new e-bike rules; At least 19 people died nationwide in 2022 due to these devices," ABC News, March 20, 2023, https://abcnews.go.com/US/amid-rise-fires-deaths-new-york-city-enacts-e-bike-law/story?id=97984159

Scott Patterson, "E-Bike Battery Fires Are Soaring, Especially in New York; Many of the fires start when people charge bikes overnight, allowing them to overheat," The Wall Street Journal, March 6, 2023, https://www.wsj.com/articles/e-bike-battery-fires-are-soaring-especially-in-new-york-a3c1e45c

# # #

Cutting Cost Centers

Begin With Budget Cuts to Military
Nicholas Johnson
The Gazette, January 25, 2023, p. A6
Republican Grover Norquist thought government should shrink enough he could drown it in a bathtub.

The current House seems to share that goal. Where should they begin?

Peter Drucker was called the founder of modern management. American and Japanese businesses owe him big time for his proposed reforms. One was the concept of cost centers, tackle the big stuff.

So what’s the largest cost center? That’s easy. Military appropriations.

We want to protect our people and borders. There are good reasons for having a military. The question is: how much?

The administration’s request for $733 billion is more than the defense spending of the next nine nations combined! Might that be figurative and literal overkill? [Photo credit: U.S. Strategic Command; the ultimate cost of the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier, R&D and construction, was $17.5 billion. See "SOURCES," below.]

We have 750 bases in 80 countries. Programs and operations are so vast few if any know how much money went where or what happened to it. Accountants say it’s simply impossible to audit the military.

As the House’s own website reports, “the founders felt that war should be difficult to enter.” They believed giving the House sole constitutional power “to declare war” would increase that difficulty. Members would be paying the price financially and with their children.

Today? Not so much. There’s no draft. Congress can be generous — $64 billion for Lockheed, $42 billion for Raytheon. In return, defense contractors are generous campaign donors. This year Congress boosted its generosity with $58 billion more than the $773 billion requested.

Defense spending is designed to keep things from happening outside our borders. Civilians don’t use or even touch the weapons.

Domestic spending makes things happen inside our borders. The Declaration of Independence says the purpose of government is to secure our unalienable rights to life, liberty, and pursuit of happiness. These rights not only increase our quality of life with things we can touch and use — education, food, health care, housing, and highways -- they improve our economy.

What’s worse, there’s evidence our defense spending is not doing us that much good.

As Abraham Maslow wrote, “If the only tool you have is a hammer, it is tempting to treat everything as if it were a nail.” How’s that hammer been working for us in Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, and elsewhere?

China isn’t perfect. Maybe we aren’t either. But China is helping build other countries’ infrastructure, economic growth — and China’s access to their resources. The U.S. showcasing “my military is bigger than yours” may create more wartime allies — and wars — but few true friends.

Some of America’s “best and brightest” are at the top of the military. They know the human costs of war. They approach it with the analytical rigor of the Powell Doctrine. (Questions like: “What non-military strategies might be better? What’s our exit strategy? Why will conditions become, and stay, better after we leave?”)

We pride ourselves on “civilian control of the military.” There are times when we might have been better off with military control of the civilians.

Defense appropriations. The best place to start cutting cost centers.

Nicholas Johnson, when U.S. Maritime Administrator, had some responsibility for military sealift during the Vietnam War. mailbox@nicholasjohnson.org

SOURCES Grover Norquist. “Grover Norquist,” Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grover_Norquist (“Norquist favors dramatically reducing the size of government.[12] He has been noted for his widely quoted quip from a 2001 interview with NPR's Morning Edition: "I'm not in favor of abolishing the government. I just want to shrink it down to the size where we can drown it in the bathtub."[55][56]”)

Cost Centers/Peter Drucker. Peter Drucker, Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Drucker ("the founder of modern management." [2] [ Denning, Steve (August 29, 2014). "The Best Of Peter Drucker". Forbes.] . . . "The fact is," Drucker wrote in his 1973 Management: Tasks, Responsibilities, Practices, "that in modern society there is no other leadership group but managers. If the managers of our major institutions, and especially of business, do not take responsibility for the common good, no one else can or will."[25])

Troy Segal, “Profit Center: Characteristics vs. a Cost Center, With Examples,” Investopedia, Dec. 07, 2020, https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/profitcentre.asp ("Peter Drucker coined the term "profit center" in 1945.")

Sayantan Mukhopadhyay, "Cost Center vs Profit Center," WallStreetMojo, https://www.wallstreetmojo.com/cost-center-vs-profit-center/ ("Cost Center is that department within the organization responsible for identifying and maintaining the organization’s cost as low as possible by analyzing the processes and making necessary changes in the company. . . . Management guru, Peter Drucker first coined the term “profit center” in 1945. After a few years, Peter Drucker corrected himself by saying that there are no profit centers in business, and that was his biggest mistake. He then said that there are only cost centers in a business and no profit center. If any profit center existed for a business, that would be a customer’s check that hadn’t been bounced.")

The USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier. Photo from Alexander Timewell, "Making History on USS Gerald R. Ford as Deployment Nears," U.S. Strategic Command, Oct. 4, 2022, https://www.stratcom.mil/Media/News/News-Article-View/Article/3179395/making-history-on-uss-gerald-r-ford-as-deployment-nears/ and see https://media.defense.gov/2022/Oct/04/2003090918/1920/1080/0/220413-N-OH637-1019.JPG
Cost: Fox Van Allen, "Meet the US Navy's new $13 billion aircraft carrier; The USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78) is the most technologically advanced warship ever built," CNET, Dec. 10, 2019, https://www.cnet.com/pictures/meet-the-navys-new-13-billion-aircraft-carrier/null/ ("The Ford itself will cost US taxpayers $12.8 billion in materials and labor. This doesn't take into account the $4.7 billion spent in research and development of the new carrier class." Total $17.5 billion)

Defense Appropriations. “U.S. Defense Spending Compared to Other Countries,” May 11, 2022, https://www.pgpf.org/chart-archive/0053_defense-comparison (chart: “The United States spends more on defense than the next 9 countries combined” [$801 B vs. $777 B])

Bill Chappell, “The Pentagon Has Never Passed An Audit. Some Senators Want To Change That,” NPR, May 19, 2021, https://www.npr.org/2021/05/19/997961646/the-pentagon-has-never-passed-an-audit-some-senators-want-to-change-that (“The Pentagon and the military industrial complex have been plagued by a massive amount of waste, fraud and financial mismanagement for decades. That is absolutely unacceptable," said Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., who co-sponsored the bill with Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, along with Sens. Ron Wyden, D-Ore., and Mike Lee, R-Utah.

Despite having trillions of dollars in assets and receiving hundreds of billions in federal dollars annually, the department has never detailed its assets and liabilities in a given year. For the past three financial years, the Defense Department's audit has resulted in a "Disclaimer of Opinion," meaning the auditor didn't get enough accounting records to form an assessment. . . . But critics note that all federal agencies, including the Pentagon, have been under the same requirement to undergo an independent financial audit since the early 1990s. Every other federal department has satisfied audit requirements since fiscal 2013, when the Department of Homeland Security had its first clean audit.”)

“FY23 Defense Budget Breakdown; Army, Air Force, and Navy-Marine Corps budget and contracting priorities,” Bloomberg Government, https://about.bgov.com/defense-budget-breakdown/#:~:text=2022%2D2023%20Defense%20budget%20breakdown&text=The%20request%20for%20the%20fiscal,appropriation%20for%20this%20fiscal%20year (“President Joe Biden’s proposed $773 billion budget for the Defense Department . . .. ‘Yearly U.S. Defense spending on contractors; Total defense spending on contractors in the past five years,’ 2021 – $408.8 Billion, 2020 – $448.9 Billion”)

John M. Donnelly, “Pentagon: Hill added $58 billion to current defense budget; Additions included money for disasters, war in Ukraine, ships and more,” Roll Call, July 14, 2022, https://rollcall.com/2022/07/14/pentagon-hill-added-58-billion-to-current-defense-budget/ (“Defense Department appropriations legislation for the current fiscal year funded more than $58 billion worth of military projects that the administration did not request, according to a first-of-its-kind Pentagon report.”)

“Defense Primer: Department of Defense Contractors,” Congressional Reference Service, Dec. 19, 2018, https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF10600/4#:~:text=As%20of%20October%202018%2C%20USCENTCOM,Afghanistan%2C%20Syria%2C%20and%20Iraq. “List of Defense Contractors,” Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_defense_contractors

“Military-Industrial Complex,” Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military%E2%80%93industrial_complex

“GOVERNMENT CONTRACTOR DEMOGRAPHICS AND STATISTICS IN THE US,” Zippia, https://www.zippia.com/government-contractor-jobs/demographics/ (“How Many Government Contractor Are There In The Us? There are over 5,138 Government Contractors in the United States.”)

Military bases. Doug Bandow, “750 Bases in 80 Countries Is Too Many for Any Nation: Time for the US to Bring Its Troops Home, CATO Institute, Oct. 4, 2021, https://www.cato.org/commentary/750-bases-80-countries-too-many-any-nation-time-us-bring-its-troops-home (“some 750 American military facilities remain open in 80 nations and territories around the world. No other country in human history has had such a dominant presence. . . . Washington has nearly three times as many bases as embassies and consulates. America also has three times as many installations as all other countries combined. . . . “These bases are costly in a number of ways: financially, politically, socially, and environmentally. US bases in foreign lands often raise geopolitical tensions, support undemocratic regimes, and serve as a recruiting tool for militant groups opposed to the US presence and the governments its presence bolsters. In other cases, foreign bases are being used and have made it easier for the United States to launch and execute disastrous wars, including those in Afghanistan, Iraq, Yemen, Somalia, and Libya.”)

Top Defense Contractors. “Top 100 Defense Companies for 2022,” Defense News, https://people.defensenews.com/top-100/ (Top 5 with Defense Revenue in billions: Lockheed Martin ($64.4), Raytheon Technologies ($42), Boeing ($35), Northrop Grumman ($31.4), General Dynamics ($31))

Founders’ intentions. U.S. House of Representatives, History, Art & Archives, “Power to Declare War,” https://history.house.gov/Institution/Origins-Development/War-Powers/ (“Like many powers articulated in the U.S. Constitution, Congress’ authority to declare war was revolutionary in its design, and a clear break from the past when a handful of European monarchs controlled the continent’s affairs. . . . Like George Mason of Virginia, the founders felt that war should be difficult to enter, and they expected congressional debate to restrain the war-making process. . . . For the Members, to declare war against a foreign power is to send their constituents, their neighbors, their family, and even themselves into harm’s way.”)

Constitutional provisions. “The Congress shall have Power To . . . provide for the common Defence and general Welfare of the United States.” —U.S. Constitution, Article I, section 8, clause 1

“The Congress shall have Power . . . To declare War, grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal, and make Rules concerning Captures on Land and Water; “To raise and support Armies, but no Appropriation of Money to that Use shall be for a longer Term than two Years; “To provide and maintain a Navy; “To make Rules for the Government and Regulation of the land and naval Forces; “To provide for calling forth the Militia to execute the Laws of the Union, suppress Insurrections and repel Invasions; “To provide for organizing, arming, and disciplining, the Militia, and for governing such Part of them as may be employed in the Service of the United States, reserving to the States respectively, the Appointment of the Officers, and the Authority of training the Militia according to the discipline prescribed by Congress” —U.S. Constitution, Article I, section 8, clauses 11–16

Declaration of Independence. National Archives, Milestone Documents, “Declaration of Independence (1776),” https://www.archives.gov/milestone-documents/declaration-of-independence (“We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.--That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed . . .”)

Our hammer. “Law of the Instrument,” Wikipedia.org (“The law of the instrument, law of the hammer,[1] Maslow's hammer (or gavel), or golden hammer[a] is a cognitive bias that involves an over-reliance on a familiar tool. Abraham Maslow wrote in 1966, "If the only tool you have is a hammer, it is tempting to treat everything as if it were a nail."[2])

The Powell Doctrine. Nicholas Johnson, “The Powell Doctrine” in “Afghanistan: Our Unaffordable War to Nowhere,” FromDC2Iowa.blogspot.com, Aug. 29, 2017, https://fromdc2iowa.blogspot.com/2017/08/afghanistan-our-unaffordable-war-to.html#powell

“Powell Doctrine,” Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Powell_Doctrine (“The Powell Doctrine states that a list of questions all have to be answered affirmatively before military action is taken by the United States: Is a vital national security interest threatened? Do we have a clear attainable objective? Have the risks and costs been fully and frankly analyzed? Have all other non-violent policy means been fully exhausted? Is there a plausible exit strategy to avoid endless entanglement? Have the consequences of our action been fully considered? Is the action supported by the American people? Do we have genuine broad international support?[2]”)

Eisenhower’s Military-Industrial Complex. National Archives, Milestone Documents, President Dwight D. Eisenhower’s Farewell Address (1961), Transcript, Jan. 17, 1961, https://www.archives.gov/milestone-documents/president-dwight-d-eisenhowers-farewell-address (“America's leadership and prestige depend, not merely upon our unmatched material progress, riches and military strength, but on how we use our power in the interests of world peace and human betterment. . . . there is a recurring temptation to feel that some spectacular and costly action could become the miraculous solution to all current difficulties. . . . This conjunction of an immense military establishment and a large arms industry is new in the American experience. The total influence-economic, political, even spiritual-is felt in every city, every state house, every office of the Federal government. . . . In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist.

We must never let the weight of this combination endanger our liberties or democratic processes. . . . only an alert and knowledgeable citizenry can compel the proper meshing of the huge industrial and military machinery of defense with our peaceful methods and goals, so that security and liberty may prosper together. . . . this world of ours, ever growing smaller, must avoid becoming a community of dreadful fear and hate, and be, instead, a proud confederation of mutual trust and respect. . . . [The conference] table, though scarred by many past frustrations, cannot be abandoned for the certain agony of the battlefield. . . . Together we must learn how to compose difference, not with arms, but with intellect and decent purpose. . . . To all the peoples of the world, I once more give expression to America's prayerful and continuing inspiration:

We pray that peoples of all faiths, all races, all nations, may have their great human needs satisfied; that those now denied opportunity shall come to enjoy it to the full; that all who yearn for freedom may experience its spiritual blessings; that those who have freedom will understand, also, its heavy responsibilities; that all who are insensitive to the needs of others will learn charity; that the scourges of poverty, disease and ignorance will be made to disappear from the earth, and that, in the goodness of time, all peoples will come to live together in a peace guaranteed by the binding force of mutual respect and love.”)

Speech writer Malcolm Moos. “Malcolm Moos,” Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malcolm_Moos (“Moos joined President Eisenhower's staff as a special assistant in 1957 and became his chief speech writer in 1958. Among the many speeches Moos wrote for President Eisenhower, he wrote Eisenhower's valedictory speech which warned of the influence of the military-industrial complex in 1961.[3]”)

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