tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30130444.post1384233824004342086..comments2024-02-16T09:00:32.845-06:00Comments on FromDC2Iowa: Cable, Coralville, Coal and ConsultantsUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30130444.post-91739303317116638232007-08-18T13:17:00.000-05:002007-08-18T13:17:00.000-05:00The ugly truth is that nobody can give a reliable ...The ugly truth is that nobody can give a reliable estimate of the Johnson County Jail population in 2020 and 2030. What can be done is to look at the history of jail population growth and make assumptions about future growth. The simplest assumption is the jail population will continue to grow at the same average rate. <BR/><BR/>In 1983 the average daily population (ADP) of the jail was 29.4 inmates and at an average growth rate of 6% per year the predicted ADP in 2006 was 112.3 and the actual ADP was 111.6 but almost all of the intervening years had ADPs above the predicted value. What this means is jail population did not grow at a uniform rate at the beginning is grew at a rate large than 6% and the end at a rate lower than 6%. Between 1997 and the first quarter of 2007 the average annual growth rate was about 5%.<BR/><BR/>If you use a average growth rate of 6% the predicted jail population in 2020 is 252 and in 2030 it is 452 essentially the numbers supplied by the Durant representative. For a 5% average growth rate the predicted populations are 221 in 2002 and 360 in 2030.<BR/><BR/>I was not at the meeting so I did not hear the presentation by Mr. Lewis the Durant represetative but evidently he was saying that when you design a jail you have to specify the maximum size so there service areas are large enough to handle the maximum capacity when the jail is expanded. My interpretation is that 450 is his preliminary estimate of the maximum size. My first question is how does the initial cost depend on the specified maximum size and my second question is what will it cost us if we cannot expand the jail because we choose a maximum size that was too small?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30130444.post-18191673223474270472007-08-17T09:01:00.000-05:002007-08-17T09:01:00.000-05:00I will defend the use of TIF. In many cases, TIF g...I will defend the use of TIF. In many cases, TIF goes to build a specific piece of infrastructure such as a road with storm sewer. It does not "take away" funding from other entities because the tax base in question was not there to begin with. Not only that, cities are able to access the tax base right away for their debt service levy, which means lowering the cost of police and fire vehicles and any other projects using that levy. TIF was also used to revitalize the Sycamore Mall area. It is an indespensible tool for cities in economic development. <BR/><BR/>I see a lot of ignorance over what TIF is and the economic development scene in general.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com